Mets & Braves down to the wire -- as it should be

September 11th, 2022

The Mets will try to win a series on the road against the Marlins today, against the third non-contender they’ve played since they won the last game of a home series against the MLB-best Dodgers. Whether the Mets win or not, what has been the great divisional race of baseball will continue today and roll all the way to the finish line of the regular season.

The race in the American League Central is close, while the one in the AL East might get closer if the Yankees don’t straighten up and fly right. But the one in the National League East involves the third- and fourth-best teams in the sport. It is the one where the Mets came into Sunday with a record of 53-35 since June 1, but they've still seen the Braves make up 10 games in the standings.

Atlanta took over first place by a half-game on Friday night. Around midnight ET on Saturday, after the Mets had already beaten the Marlins, the Mets went back into first place when the Mariners beat the Braves in Seattle. It will likely go this way until the last weekend of the regular season in Atlanta, when the Mets and Braves meet up one last time before the playoffs.

I mentioned to manager Buck Showalter late Saturday night how much fun it will be to watch, because this is what late September and early October is supposed to be like in baseball.

“Fun is getting healthy and getting in,” Showalter said, adding that standings-watching is for the rest of us, the same thing he tells his team. He also said this:

“We can only control what we can control.”

The Mets were supposed to have a soft schedule once they got done with the Dodgers: Nationals, Pirates, Marlins, Cubs, Pirates. Across town, the Yankees were supposed to get well not long ago on the West Coast against the A’s and the Angels. They won their first two games against the A’s and then proceeded to lose four of the next five.

“Teams with nothing to lose still play to win,” is how Showalter puts it.

The Mets manager always saw the Braves coming -- even when they were 24-27, before they got hot and stayed that way for more than three months.

“The Braves are still great,” Showalter said at the time, “and we know they’re going to come for us.”

They have. Even with their loss to Seattle on Saturday night, the Braves' record since they were 10 1/2 behind the Mets is 63-25. Their lineup is better than the one the Mets have; it might be better than anybody’s, actually, and that includes the Dodgers, the Astros and the Yankees. The Braves are the defending world champs and started slow the same as they did last season, when they came roaring into October and won their first title since 1995.

This is the team still coming for the Mets, the team they’re trying to hold off to stay out of a Wild Card series. The Dodgers are knocking on the door of another 100-win season -- and they are about to kick that door down. Since June 1, when the Braves began to make their run at the top of the NL East, even Los Angeles' record -- 62-26 -- isn’t as good as Atlanta’s. How good have the Braves been? They’ve been that good.

Showalter doesn’t ever use injuries as an excuse. But there are reasons why the Mets were 5-4 in September going into Sunday’s game against the Marlins. Max Scherzer -- without whom they have no chance to do anything in the postseason -- is back on the injured list with an oblique issue. They will likely get Luis Guillorme, who has been such an important piece for them this season, back this week -- along with setup man Trevor May, who has been on and off the IL all season. Starling Marte, one of the stars of their outfield, has a broken finger -- and the Mets aren’t entirely certain when it’s going to heal.

But they remain hopeful about being whole by the time they roll into Atlanta for that last series, one of those times when the schedule-makers have gotten things exactly right. The number of Wild Card teams in baseball has changed; the postseason format has changed. But the Mets and Braves are proving that September hasn’t, not when you have this kind of race.

The Guardians, White Sox and Twins are bunched at the top of the AL Central. The Rays and the Jays are still chasing the Yankees. There are other races. Not like the one between the Mets and the Braves.