Arenado poised to be a catalyst on offense

February 10th, 2021

Maybe it should be no surprise that the Cardinals added .

St. Louis was always thought to be in the market for an impact bat after finishing 24th in runs in 2020, averaging just 4.14 per game. The Cards were always going to need a quality glove if they hoped to replace the defensive production of Kolten Wong. They were long attached to Arenado in rumors, with firm interest dating back to last offseason, and they could afford a spark after falling out of the postseason last October rather unceremoniously.

Much has been made about Arenado's glove, and for good reason, as he has eight Gold and four Platinum Glove Awards on his resume. But what about Arenado's bat? The bat that, despite his down 2020, makes him one of the most feared all-around players in the league?

The Cardinals hope that in giving Arenado a change of scenery, they have unlocked not just one batter but two. Paul Goldschmidt, despite being St. Louis’ most productive hitter in 2020, did so with minimal lineup protection. Goldschmidt, who batted exclusively in the No. 3 spot, recorded a .304/.417/.466 line (142 OPS+) that was a bounceback from the .260/.346/.476 line (115 OPS+) in 2019. And that was accomplished ahead of a cleanup-by-committee spot (primarily Brad Miller) that slashed just .198/.322/.380 in 2020.

“Having a guy like Arenado in the middle of our lineup is going to completely change the way pitchers look at us,” shortstop Paul DeJong said recently on MLB Network Radio.

The Cardinals will need it -- not just from Arenado but from all across the lineup. Here’s how the 2020 team fared by OPS at each batting spot (remember, the designated hitter was included last season).

  1. .666
  2. .628
  3. .877
  4. .702
  5. .654
  6. .629
  7. .685
  8. .754
  9. .651

It’d be fair to call those aberrations, given the season’s small sample size, unprecedented conditions and the coronavirus outbreak that forced the Cardinals to stop and restart their routines in the middle of it all.

But one fact is undisputed: The Cardinals have not boasted a 100-RBI batter since Matt Holliday in 2012. Arenado averaged 124 RBIs from 2015-19.

In looking to truly unlock Goldschmidt, the Cardinals hope they have landed the 2019 version of Arenado -- the one who slashed .315/.379/.583 with 41 homers and 118 RBIs -- as opposed to the injury-marred Arenado who set a career low in batting average (.253) in ‘20 and nearly did the same in several other offensive categories.

There are two questions to consider when it comes to Arenado in 2021: First, is he healthy, meaning that his tough ‘20 was a fluke? And second, can he be the hitter he was away from hitter-friendly Coors Field?

If we’re going by Arenado’s own assessment, the first issue should not be a concern. Arenado, who missed the final two weeks of the 2020 season with soreness in the AC joint in his left shoulder, said he was limited in the early part of this offseason, kept from lifting by trainers.

That injury, which was in his non-throwing shoulder, clearly didn’t affect him in the field, as he locked up that eighth consecutive Gold Glove, but it affected his swing. He is now comfortable enough to swing at pitches high and above the zone, an area where he struggled mightily while ailing last year.

“Unless something crazy happens, I don't expect this to be a problem in the future,” Arenado said. "I don’t want to make the excuse that it was only because of that, but it wasn't easy, playing injured. Didn't feel good being hurt. I feel like I'm in a better place now.”

As for the second question, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello took a deep dive into how the “Coors Effect” might play into Arenado's case. Generally, hitters who leave Coors Field, while tallying lower numbers at their new home, tend to find that their road numbers actually increase. If Arenado’s home/road splits (.985 OPS at Coors, .793 away) simply start to average out, that’s still a lethal bat in the lineup.

And the Cardinals also buy into the intangibles. What made Arenado attractive in a trade -- in addition to his undisputed on-field prowess -- is the example he can set for the younger crop of position players.

“His reputation preceded him in the sense of how much he loves the game of baseball,” president of baseball ops John Mozeliak said. “When I talk to other players about Nolan and what impresses them about him, they always came back to how hard he works, desire to learn, high baseball IQ. And those types of things are just very attractive to a team.”

It’ll be just a few weeks until that’s on full display in Jupiter, Fla.