9 players to watch before they hit free agency

March 6th, 2020

Although MLB clubs consider a wide range of factors when it comes to evaluating free agents, there's naturally still a recency bias, and a player's walk-year performance can swing his next contract by tens of millions of dollars in either direction. Heck, sometimes that swing happens in a matter of weeks.

Before Stephen Strasburg's epic postseason in 2019, it wasn't considered a foregone conclusion that he would opt out of the remaining four years and $100 million on his deal. But the right-hander went 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA in six games (five starts) under the bright lights of October, helping Washington win a World Series title. Then, he opted out. And in December, he re-signed with Washington for $245 million over seven years.

Strasburg's deal was the richest ever given to a pitcher ... for one day, until Gerrit Cole landed a nine-year, $324 million contract from the Yankees. Given his stuff and relatively young age (29 years old), Cole was already poised to cash in as a free agent. But a brilliant walk year and an equally strong postseason set him up to shatter records.

The nine players below are entering their walk years in 2020, and what happens this season could have a major influence on their free-agent fortunes.

The superstar chasing history

, OF, Dodgers

Even if he has an average 2020 season by his standards, Betts has a strong chance to break Bryce Harper's record for the largest contract signed by any MLB free agent ($330 million). He's that good, and he'll be only 28 years old next offseason. $350 million? $400 million? They're also in play. So, what exactly does Betts still need to prove? Well, simply put, that he's worth the richest financial commitment in MLB history, surpassing the $426.5 million in guaranteed money that Mike Trout's 12-year deal with the Angels will pay him. That's what's at stake for Betts on a personal level, and he's also tasked with helping the Dodgers finally get over the hump and win their first World Series title since 1988.

The veterans seeking validation

, RHP, Athletics

Less than two years ago, Hendriks was designated for assignment and went unclaimed on waivers. Later that season, he was the opener in the AL Wild Card Game against the Yankees. And last year, he had to work his way into a high-leverage bullpen role. But Hendriks ended up as Oakland's closer, and he finished the campaign with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, 124 strikeouts and 21 walks over 85 innings -- far and away the best season of his career. The 31-year-old Australian right-hander could set himself up for a nice payday with another strong showing in 2020, considering Drew Pomeranz secured a four-year, $34 million deal from the Padres after a couple months of excellent relief work at a similar age.

, INF, Yankees

When LeMahieu first reached free agency after the 2018 season, he did so as a lifetime .298 hitter with three Gold Glove Awards, but also as someone with a career 92 OPS+. Moreover, there were questions about how much he would hit away from Coors Field. But after signing a two-year, $24 million deal with the Yankees, LeMahieu showed more power than ever without sacrificing his bat-to-ball skills. In fact, he posted the second-most hard-hit balls (95+ mph exit velocity) in the Majors while slashing .327/.375/.518 with 26 homers and just 90 strikeouts. A repeat could put him in line for a much larger contract, even though he'll be 32 years old in July.

, RHP, Twins

Odorizzi was one of two players to accept a one-year qualifying offer this past offseason, returning to the Twins for $17.8 million. With Cole, Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel signing deals worth over $900 million combined, Odorizzi's decision seems regrettable in hindsight. The veteran righty was close to a league-average arm from 2012-18, recording a 102 ERA+ with a 13.7% K-BB%. But Odorizzi is betting he can duplicate his 2019 breakout (personal-best 131 ERA+, 19% K-BB%), which was driven by a velocity bump that made his four-seam fastball much more effective.

, SS, Athletics

While Semien made notable strides on defense during his first four seasons with the A's, his offensive output during that span was unremarkable, as his OPS+ ranged from 95-99. But in 2019, the shortstop blossomed at the plate, recording a career-high 138 OPS+ with 33 homers, and finished third in the AL MVP Award voting. Semien's strikeout rate, walk rate, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and xwOBA were all personal bests by a wide margin, suggesting there was significant growth from a skills standpoint. Considering the strength of next year's class of free-agent shortstops (Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregorius) and the one after that (Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story), regression could cost Semien dearly on the open market.

The second-chance duo

, SS, Phillies

Derek Jeter's successor in the Bronx increased his home run total and OPS in each of his first four seasons with the Yankees, but after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2018, Gregorius struggled on both sides of the ball last year. Over 82 games, he hit just .238/.276/.441 and had -10 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average. Gregorius ended up accepting a one-year, $14 million contract from the Phillies, giving him a season to rebuild his value in hopes of landing a better deal next offseason.

, OF, Braves

While the Draft-pick compensation attached to Ozuna after he rejected the Cardinals' qualifying offer may have hindered his market some, the slugger reportedly had multiple three- and four-year offers on the table before he decided to take a one-year, $18 million contract with the Braves. During his two seasons with the Cardinals, Ozuna had the fifth-largest disparity in MLB (min. 500 plate appearances) between his xwOBA (.370) and his actual wOBA (.331). By accepting a one-year deal, the 29-year-old is effectively betting that his terrific batted-ball metrics will start paying off in the form of improved production in 2020.

The enigmas

, RHP, Reds

For all of his talent, Bauer has only one season on his resume with an ERA below 4.18. Granted, that season was outstanding, as Bauer posted a 2.21 ERA with 221 strikeouts and an AL-leading 2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 innings in 2018. Last year, the righty crossed the 200-inning threshold for the first time in his career, but his hard-hit and walk rates both spiked, contributing to a 4.48 ERA. This included a 6.39 mark over 10 starts after being traded from the Indians to the Reds. Even if Bauer sticks to his plan of only signing one-year deals for the rest of his career, his performance in 2020 could have a sizable impact on what type of salary offers he receives.

, LHP, D-backs

While Ray misses a ton of bats (31.9% K-rate from 2017-19), he is also prone to wildness (11.6% BB-rate from '17-19) and has shown a tendency to get hit hard when he allows contact. As a result, he owns a career 4.11 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP, which aren't exactly the marks of a high-end starter. The left-hander was at his best in 2017, posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 22.1% K-BB% over 162 innings and finishing seventh in the NL Cy Young Award race. If he can recapture that form, the 28-year-old could find himself near the top of a free-agent class that lacks a clear-cut No. 1 pitcher.