Ranking prospects in past 5 years' Deadline deals

August 8th, 2018

This July, there were just two trades involving MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects. Yusniel Diaz headlined the five-player package the Dodgers sent to the Orioles for Manny Machado, while the Indians gave up to bolster their bullpen with Brad Hand and from the Padres.
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That relative lack of Top 100 activity was surprising, compared to the past five years of deals in the month leading up to the Trade Deadline. From 2013-17, there were 20 July trades that included a total of 26 prospects on our midseason Top 100 lists. If we expand that focus to consider guys who would earn Top 100 status in the future, there were 32 transactions with 41 Top 100 Prospects.
At MLB Pipeline, we've never met something that we couldn't rank. So we're going to line up those 41 prospects in the order of how well we think their careers will play out, and we'll tell you who we believe will win each of these trades. Yes, we realize this will require a lot more in the way of predictions than hard evidence, but that doesn't make this any less fun. Rankings below are where the player was on the Top 100 list when he was traded.
1. , SS, Yankees (No. 26 on midseason Top 100)
from Cubs in four-player package for , 2016
Torres eventually rose to No. 1 on the Top 100 and looks like a righty-hitting , plus the Yankees got Chapman back as a free agent after the season. Though the Cubs overpaid for a rental closer, they wouldn't have won the 2016 World Series without Chapman, so there are no complaints in Chicago.
Winner: Draw
2. , OF, White Sox (No. 7)
from Cubs in four-player package for , 2017
Jimenez has only gotten better since the White Sox got him from their crosstown rivals, and this deal also contains a second potential star we'll get too in a moment. Quintana gave the Cubs a cost-controlled starter through 2020, but he has been pretty average since changing leagues and got shelled in the National League Championship Series last fall.
Winner: White Sox

3. , SS, Cubs (No. 7)
from Athletics in three-player package for Jeff Samardzija and , 2014
That's three straight deals involving the Cubs, and they clearly won this one. Russell, who matches Jimenez for the highest-rated prospect to change addresses in the past five Julys, was starting in Chicago the next year at age 21. Samardzija and Hammel left the Athletics shortly after Oakland lost the 2014 American League Wild Card Game.
Winner: Cubs
4. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Athletics (unranked at the time)
from Nationals in three-player package for and , 2017
Doolittle and Madson bolstered the Nationals' bullpen, but the team still hasn't won a playoff series and Luzardo can make a case for being baseball's best pitching prospect. Worse yet for Washington, it also gave up veteran , who became an All-Star closer in Oakland.
Winner: Athletics
5. , LHP, Brewers (unranked twice)
from Orioles to Astros in two-player package (plus 2014 supplemental first-round pick) for , 2013
from Astros to Brewers in four-player package for and Mike Fiers, 2015
Hader was a prize in two lopsided deals, as Norris had one good year for the Orioles, Gomez was terrible with the Astros and Fiers was effective for two months in Houston. The Astros turned Baltimore's Draft pick into , but they also surrendered and in the latter deal.
Winner: Astros (2013), Brewers (2015)
6. , LHP, Red Sox (unranked)
from Orioles for , 2014
Miller is a stud, but the Orioles only got two months out of him before they bowed out in the AL Championship Series and he left for the Yankees as a free agent.
Winner: Red Sox
7. , LHP, Athletics (unranked)
from Royals in two-player package for , 2015
Our rule from the Torres/Chapman deal applies here as well -- even if a club gives up a youngster who blossoms into a solid big leaguer for a two-month rental, if that rental helps you win the World Series, the trade rates as a draw.
Winner: Draw

8. , RHP, Tigers (unranked)
from Mets in two-player package for , 2015
Fulmer won the AL Rookie of the Year Award and then an All-Star in his first two big league seasons; Cespedes helped carry the Mets to the 2015 World Series and continues to mash when healthy.
Winner: Draw
9. , SS, Rays (unranked)
from Tigers in three-player package in three-team deal for , 2014
Unknown at the time, Adames has developed into one of the game's top middle-infield prospects. Price spent 12 months with the Tigers, losing his lone playoff starts before going to the Blue Jays in a trade that hasn't done a lot for Detroit.
Winner: Rays
10. , OF, Yankees (No. 24)
from Indians in four-player package for Andrew Miller, 2016
Miller has been great with the Indians and nearly helped them win the 2016 World Series, yet he will likely depart at the end of this season. The Yankees haven't found room in their lineup for Frazier but he still has enticing power, and the next guy on this list could swing the deal in New York's favor.
Winner: Draw
11. , LHP, Yankees (No. 95)
from Indians in four-player package for Andrew Miller, 2016
The Yankees need rotation help more than power, so Sheffield could have a bigger impact in New York than Frazier.
Winner: see Frazier, No. 10 on list

12. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros (unranked)
from Dodgers for Josh Fields, 2016
Alvarez, now one of the better all-around hitters in the Minors, hadn't played a pro game when this deal went down. As a bonus for the Astros, Fields imploded against them in Game 2 of the World Series last fall, a turning point in Houston's championship.
Winner: Astros
13. , RHP, White Sox (No. 69)
from Cubs in four-player package for Jose Quintana, 2017
Cease for Quintana straight up might have been a big win for the White Sox.
Winner: see Jimenez, No. 2 on list
14. , OF, Cardinals (unranked)
from Mariners for , 2017
The Mariners may rue giving up on O'Neill's prodigious pop, though for now Gonzales has helped fuel their surprising season.
Winner: Draw

15. , OF, Rangers (No. 71)
from Dodgers in three-player package for , 2017
Calhoun combines power and patience better than most prospects, and don't sleep on bat-missing right-hander A.J. Alexy, the second piece of this trade. Darvish was everything he was supposed to be in the last two months of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, but his time with the Dodgers will be remembered for his disastrous World Series.
Winner: Rangers
16. , C, Phillies (No. 69)
from Rangers in six-player package for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman, 2015
Hamels and Diekman played significant roles in two AL West titles for the Rangers. Alfaro is the most promising of the six players the Phillies got in return, though that haul has been more about quantity than quality so far.
Winner: Rangers
17. , 3B, Tigers (No. 93)
from Cubs in two-player package for and Alex Avila, 2017
Blocked by and on the Cubs, Candelario has shown promise as a regular with the Tigers, who also got a quality shortstop prospect in Isaac Paredes. Wilson has scuffled in Chicago, while Avila had little impact there.
Winner: Tigers
18. , SS, Dodgers/now with Reds (No. 30)
from Braves in seven-player package in three-team deal for Mat Latos, Alex Wood and four others, 2015
In a three-team trade that also involved the Marlins and included 13 players and a 2016 supplemental first-round pick, the Dodgers came away with the two best talents in Wood and Peraza. Five months later, they gave Peraza away to the Reds in another three-team deal that netted them little.
Winner: Dodgers
19. , OF, Brewers/now with Marlins (No. 22)
from Rangers in three-player package for and , 2016
Brinson has a tantalizing power/speed combination but also swing-and-miss concerns, and the Brewers eventually used him as the cornerstone of the trade last offseason. The Rangers fell short of a third consecutive AL West title after adding Lucroy and Jeffress, then traded them both the following summer.
Winner: Brewers
20. Blake Rutherford, OF, White Sox (No. 45)
from Yankees in four-player package for , and Tommy Kahnle, 2017
Frazier and Co. nearly got the Yankees to the World Series last fall and Robertson is still a key member of their bullpen. Rutherford has upside but is also at least a couple of years away, so let's call this even for now.
Winner: Draw

21. Brett Phillips, OF, Brewers/now with Royals (No. 39)
from Astros in four-player package for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers, 2015
Phillips never was able to claim a regular job for the Brewers, who sent him to the Royals this July in a trade for Mike Moustakas.
Winner: see Hader, No. 5 on list
22. Domingo Santana, OF, Brewers (No. 87)
from Astros in four-player package for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers, 2015
The Gomez/Fiers deal was one of two in the previous five Julys with three current or future Top 100 Prospects. Santana hit 30 homers in 2017, his lone season as a regular, but has regressed this year.
Winner: see Hader, No. 5 on list
23. , OF, Athletics (No. 79)
from Yankees in three-player package for , 2017
Gray pitched as hoped last year for the Yankees but has been a disaster in 2018. All three guys the Athletics got were Top 100 Prospects at some point, and odds are that Fowler, (see below) or will make the deal worthwhile for Oakland.
Winner: Athletics
24. Carl Edwards, RHP, Cubs (unranked)
from Rangers in four-player package for Matt Garza, 2013
This deal didn't play out as anticipated. Garza was ineffective with the Rangers and the key prospect (Mike Olt) didn't pan out, but Edwards and became part of a World Series championship bullpen in 2016.
Winner: Cubs

25. , RHP, Astros (unranked)
from Marlins in three-player package (plus 2015 supplemental first-round pick) for , and , 2014
Martes hasn't been able to find his niche with the Astros yet, but he rose from obscurity to quality pitching prospect after they stole him in this trade. They also got , part of their 2017 World Series championship club, and , who became part of a deal last offseason.
Winner: Astros
26. Colin Moran, 3B, Astros/now with Pirates (No. 72)
from Marlins in three-player package (plus 2015 supplemental first-round pick) for Jarred Cosart, Enrique Hernandez and Austin Wates, 2014
If hadn't been available, the Astros would have selected Moran (over Kris Bryant) with the No. 1 overall choice in the 2013 Draft.
Winner: see Martes, No. 25 on list
27. , LHP, Tigers (No. 25)
from Blue Jays in three-player package for David Price, 2015
Norris could tilt this deal in the Tigers' favor if he can stay healthy. Price was awesome down the stretch for the Blue Jays but far from it in the playoffs, then left as a free agent.
Winner: Draw
28. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, Padres (No. 21)
from Red Sox for , 2016
The Red Sox were furious after receiving less-than-complete medical reports from the Padres on Pomeranz. But he won 17 games last year while the precocious Espinoza hasn't pitched the past two seasons after having Tommy John surgery.
Winner: Red Sox

29. Jorge Mateo, SS, Athletics (unranked)
from Yankees in three-player package for Sonny Gray, 2017
Mateo has game-changing speed but has stalled in Triple-A this year.
Winner: see Fowler, No. 23 on list
30. , RHP, Athletics (No. 84)
from Dodgers in three-player package for Rich Hill and , 2016
Of the five players in this trade, only Hill has contributed much for the team that acquired him. Shoulder issues have sidelined Holmes all year.
Winner: Dodgers
31. Frankie Montas, RHP, White Sox/now with Athletics (unranked)
from Red Sox in four-player package in three-team deal for Jake Peavy, 2013
The best part of the Peavy transaction for the White Sox was getting from the Tigers. Montas went from the White Sox to the Dodgers as part of the Peraza trade, then to the Athletics in the Hill/Reddick deal.
Winner: White Sox
32. , OF, Phillies (No. 64)
from Rangers in six-player package for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman, 2015
Williams gives away almost as many runs with his defense as he provides with his productive bat.
Winner: see Alfaro, No. 16 on list
33. , RHP, Rockies (No. 58)
from Blue Jays in four-player package for and LaTroy Hawkins, 2015
Though Hoffman has yet to deliver on the promise that had him in contention to go No. 1 overall in the 2014 Draft, Tulowitzki looked mortal as soon as he left Coors Field and the Rockies saved $51 million by swapping him for in this deal.
Winner: Rockies
34. , RHP, Brewers/now with Orioles (No. 65)
from Rangers in three-player package for Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress, 2016
As with Brinson, the Brewers since have parted with Ortiz, sending him to the Orioles in a trade for last week.
Winner: see Brinson, No. 19 on list

35. , LHP, Reds (unranked)
from Royals in three-player package for , 2015
Cueto won more games in the 2015 postseason for the champion Royals (two) than Reed has in three years with the Reds (one), who also saw and fall short of expectations.
Winner: Royals
36. , OF, Cubs/now with Blue Jays (unranked)
from Athletics in three-player package for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, 2014
McKinney emerged as a Top 100 Prospect after the Athletics made their ill-fated trade, then faded before the Cubs included him in the Chapman deal. He was on the move again this July, going to the Blue Jays as part of the cost for J.A. Happ.
Winner: see Russell, No. 3 on list
37. , RHP, Phillies (unranked in 2014, No. 60 in 2015)
from Tigers to Rangers in two-player package for , 2014
from Rangers to Phillies in six-player package for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman, 2015
The Rangers came out ahead in both Thompson moves and also acquired for Soria, though they'd relinquish Knebel in a trade with the Brewers. The Hamels/Diekman deal was the only one on this list to involve three current Top 100 Prospects.
Winner: Rangers (2014), see Alfaro, No. 16 on list (2015)
38. , RHP, Astros/now with Blue Jays (unranked)
from Tigers in two-player package for Jose Veras, 2013
Paulino's promise was derailed by injuries and suspensions before the Astros included him in the trade with the Blue Jays last week. Veras had minimal impact with the Tigers.
Winner: Draw
39. Mike Olt, 3B, Cubs/now with Red Sox (No. 63)
from Rangers in four-player package for Matt Garza, 2013
It wasn't apparent at the time, but Olt wouldn't be the same after getting beaned while playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic in November 2012.
Winner: see Edwards, No. 24 on list
40. Phil Bickford, RHP, Brewers (No. 67)
from Giants in two-player package for Will Smith
Smith has been terrific with the Giants despite losing 2017 to Tommy John surgery. Bickford has missed time with a drug suspension and injuries, pitching just 66 innings in part of three seasons in the Brewers' system.
Winner: Giants
41. Rob Kaminsky, LHP, Indians (No. 88)
from Cardinals for , 2015
Moss had a forgettable two months with the Cardinals, while Kaminsky is still trying to solve Double-A.
Winner: Draw