Inbox: Roster decisions getting more difficult

October 28th, 2019

No matter which team wins the World Series in the next few days, baseball’s offseason will officially begin later this week -- and with it, the trade rumors and free-agent speculations that usually help fans through each winter. The Tigers won’t be at the top of those conversations, but they’ll be entering a new stage of their rebuilding phase, with prospects now either nearing Detroit’s doorstep or breaking into the big leagues. The veteran acquisitions should eventually be meant as supplements for the young talent, rather than simply placeholders for them.

On to questions:

In past years, probably would have been safe on the Tigers’ 40-man roster. He filled a versatile role in the bullpen, progressing from innings-eating long reliever to a late-inning lefty. His numbers were up and down -- a .689 OPS allowed in July, then .939 in August, then .622 in limited work in September.

But the Tigers are at a different stage than they were when they would have protected pitchers like Ramirez. With several prospects needing to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, Detroit is finally at a point where the front office needs to make tough decisions. Compared to such other relievers on the 40-man roster as Tyler Alexander, and , Ramirez’s age of 30 worked against him. And though is four months older, the Tigers liked his higher strikeout rate.

I would not be surprised to see the Tigers try to bring Ramirez back on a non-roster invitation.

Tigers front office members and scouts spent the weekend meeting in Lakeland, Fla., to go over offseason plans. The one expectation is that they’ll look for a run producer to supplement a lineup that, by season’s end, had no proven hitters past . The logical fits are either a first baseman or a corner outfielder. Like the last two years, the Tigers won’t be active at the top end of the market but will be looking for rebound types.

One free agent who could be interesting is former Blue Jays first baseman , a switch-hitter two years removed from a 38-homer season in Toronto. He batted just .208 this year but posted a .342 on-base percentage thanks to 79 walks in 500 plate appearances, his third straight season with at least 73 walks. Smoak batted just .223 on balls in play this year, 43 points below his career BABIP, but his expected weighted on-base average and expected slugging percentage were both in the top quarter of big league players, according to Statcast. Even as he nears his 33rd birthday, he’s a strong rebound candidate, the kind the Tigers need to target. But he’s strong enough that other teams in better situations could target him, too.

I would love to see it happen, though I wouldn’t bank on it. Besides bringing his career full circle at age 38, brings the kind of clubhouse presence and leadership the Tigers badly need. His productivity at the plate has not been good, including a .172 average and .603 OPS against right-handers this year and, against all pitching, nearly as many strikeouts (98) as hits and walks combined (99). The Tigers have had chances to pursue Granderson the last couple years and passed.

The Tigers have expanded their analytics department each year since Al Avila took over as general manager in 2015. It was up to 14 people this year, and manager Ron Gardenhire indicated at season’s end that they’re adding more folks. The Tigers have invested in such tools for player development as high-speed cameras, pressure plates and swing trackers, and they’ve partnered with the University of Michigan’s Exercise and Sport Science Initiative to complement that. They’ve spent four years feeding Caesar, their database of analytical, scouting and medical data. They’ve done a ton to move toward analytics.

So far, the Tigers face a recurring problem on the analytics front: Every team is in on it, and most of them enjoyed a significant head start. For all Detroit is doing, other teams also are advancing, meaning Detroit is still playing catch-up according to many outside the organization. If and when the Tigers catch up, simply doing the same thing as everyone else isn’t going to gain to edge, at least in terms of player acquisition. The initial purpose of the analytics revolution was to identify market inefficiencies that others were missing. When every team does the same thing and reaches the same evaluation, there’s a risk of groupthink. The Tigers need a creative edge, a distinguishing factor.