Top stolen-base prospects for dynasty leagues

May 8th, 2020

After releasing our first-ever dynasty league prospect rankings, in which we identified the Top 50 prospects based on long-term fantasy value, MLB Pipeline has continued break down dynasty prospects through various lenses in recent weeks by looking at our favorite sleepers as well as power-hitting prospects whom fantasy GMs should covet.

This week, we once again focus on a group of players capable of dominating a specific category -- stolen bases. Remember: not all dynasty formats are the same, so be mindful of your league’s rules (i.e., auction format; salary cap; rosters spots; contract and keeper terms -- you get the idea).

With all that said, here is a look at 15 speedsters (presented in alphabetical order) who could one day help pad your dynasty squad’s stolen-base totals:

CJ Abrams, SS, Padres: Georgia's Gatorade high school player of the year, Abrams' speed and athleticism set him apart from most others in the 2019 Draft, where he was also viewed as one of the better high school hitters in the class before signing with San Diego as the No. 6 overall pick and batting .401 with 23 extra-base hits and 14 steals as the Rookie-level Arizona League MVP. Abrams has elite, game-changing speed, with the instincts to develop into a premium basestealer.

Vidal Brujan, 2B, Rays: One of the Minors’ more prolific basestealers, Brujan, a plus-plus runner, has totaled 108 stolen bases in the past two years. He swiped 55 bags in 2018 to finish third in the Minors and followed it with a 48-steal campaign in ’19, tying for fourth in MiLB. He’s still learning how to be an effective basestealer, though, and owns a 72.6 percent success rate (151 of 208) across his first five seasons.

Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs: The No. 15 overall pick in last year’s Draft, Carroll went 19-for-20 in steal attempts during his pro debut after Arizona selected him with the first of their seven Day 1 picks. The 19-year-old outfielder’s loudest tool is the plus-plus speed that makes him a threat to steal when he's on base as well as a rangy, plus defender in center, where he's expected to stay long term.

Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: Signed by the Yankees for $5.1 million in July 2019, Dominguez possesses elite athleticism that has earned him comparisons to Bo Jackson, Mickey Mantle and Mike Trout. Right-handed power may be Dominguez’s sexiest tool, but he can also impact the game on the bases with his well above-average speed. Together, the combination gives the 17-year-old outfielder 30-30 potential.

Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox: Duran went from the seventh round of the 2018 Draft to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game in 2019, when he batted .303/.367/.408 with 46 steals while reaching Double-A. He’s the fastest runner in Boston’s system and has shown more pop than the Red Sox expected, all while transitioning from second base to center field as a pro.

Xavier Edwards, 2B, Rays: Acquired from San Diego in the offseason Tommy Pham-Hunter Renfroe trade, Edwards, a switch-hitter with 70-grade wheels, swiped 34 bags in his first full season and has posted an 82.4 percent success rate on the basepaths over his first 168 career games.

Greg Jones, SS, Rays: With near top-of-the-scale speed and basestealing chops that enable him to create havoc once on base, Jones was viewed as one of the premier athletes in the 2019 Draft before going to the Rays with the No. 22 pick. The 22-year-old speedster swiped 19 bags during his pro debut in the Rookie-level Appalachian League, albeit while being caught eight times.

Khalil Lee, OF, Royals: The former third-round pick’s (2016) on-base skills and above-average speed resulted in a Double-A Texas League-best 63 walks and 53 stolen bases last season, the latter total also ranking third in the Minors. With improved hitting ability – he batted .264 with a 28.2 percent strikeout rate in ’19 -- Lee stands to make an even greater impact on the basepaths than he already does.

Royce Lewis, SS, Twins: Lewis has racked up 50 stolen bases across his first two seasons -- 68 steals in 127 career games -- and received several votes in our Pipeline Executive Poll as the fastest prospect in baseball. It’s the combination of pure speed and instincts on the bases that has allowed him to be successful in 76.4 percent of his stolen-base attempts in his career.

Jorge Mateo, SS, A’s: Mateo hasn’t run as much as he did in his early days with the Yankees -- he swiped 82 bags back in 2015 and 52 in 2017 -- but he does have 49 steals over the last two years and still grades out with 80 speed. Getting on base more consistently would certainly allow him to use his legs more to wreak havoc, and his speed helps him have considerable range up the middle defensively.

Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates: The former University of Arizona walk-on racked up 33 steals in his first full season, swiped the second-most bags (36) in last year’s Double-A Southern League and then led the Arizona Fall League in that department (11). What’s more, Oliva had an outstanding second half offensively at Altoona, slashing .325/.387/.446 over his final 69 games.

Cristian Pache, OF, Braves: Pache earns 70 grades for his speed, arm and defense and he’s an above-average hitter to boot with power that’s starting to show up. The 21-year-old is still learning how to use that near top-of-the-scale speed to be a basestealing threat, but it should come with time and experience.

Luis Robert, OF, White Sox: Robert's loud tools earned him a $26 million bonus in May 2017 as well as a six-year, $50 million pre-MLB extension, with two club options, this past January. Those tools translated into a monster 2019 season that included a .328/.376/.624 line, 32 homers, 36 steals and a Minor League-best 314 total bases. He owns some of the best raw power in the game and is a threat to run whenever he gets on base.

Michael Siani, OF, Reds: A fourth-round pick in 2018 out of the Pennsylvania prep ranks, Siani’s plus speed was on constant display in his first full season. It really shows in center field, where he makes diving, highlight-reel-worthy catches on a regular basis, as well as on the basepaths. The 20-year-old outfielder led the Class A Midwest League with 45 steals last year, while his 75 percent success rate only underscores his room for improvement.

Drew Waters, OF, Braves: Waters and Pache are on the same path to big leagues as 21-year-olds who finished the 2019 season in Triple-A. But while the former stands to make a greater impact at the plate with his emerging power, Waters is a safer bet to net fantasy owner steals in the big leagues after swiping 39 bags in 50 attempts across his first two full-season campaigns.