Every year as the Draft approaches, there is a level of uncertainty about who is going to go where, even at the top. Sure, there are years when it’s obvious, like when Stephen Strasburg went No. 1 overall in 2009, or fairly clear, like when Adley Rutschman was the choice over Bobby Witt Jr., in 2019.

But in many other seasons, it’s hard to decipher who will be the No. 1 pick until right up before the selection is made. And this year might be as cloudy as any in recent memory.

Some of that can be chalked up to the unusual nature of this year coming on the heels of a pandemic-shortened 2020 season and summer, limiting some looks and the data teams covet. Some of it is because of a lack of separation among players being considered at or near the top of the Draft. And some of it is because of a combination of the Pirates keeping things close to the vest and truly not knowing yet who they will take on Sunday night.

A while back, it was believed the Pirates were looking at six players, all currently in the top seven of MLB Pipeline’s Draft Top 250 list. Listed in order of where they are currently ranked, those players were: California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer, Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter, Texas prep shortstop Jordan Lawlar, Louisville catcher Henry Davis, Vandy right-hander Kumar Rocker and Oklahoma high school right-hander Jackson Jobe.

That list hasn’t really changed much, though Jobe, who never was likely a serious consideration, has been replaced by fast-rising North Carolina high school shortstop Kahlil Watson in the mix. The Pirates haven’t ruled out any of this half-dozen as of yet, but they’re not being looked at in the order they’re ranked in the Top 250.

Just how would you rank the chances of each candidate to go No. 1? The Pirates aren’t tipping their hand, but in talking to teams picking behind Pittsburgh, there is a general consensus on the odds of each, with a combination of what kind of player they think the Pirates want and a little bit of how the signability might play out leading to the following tiers:

The favorite: Mayer
We have him ranked No. 1 for a reason, right? He’s the front-runner right now, even if there isn’t a true strength in conviction, as the player we have graded out as the best hitter and best defender in the class, one who reminds scouts of Corey Seager offensively and Brandon Crawford defensively. Most believe the Pirates are leaning toward a hitter and he’s the best one on the board.

Strong possibilities: Lawlar, Davis
Some swing-and-miss concerns from Lawlar earlier this spring may have knocked him from favorite status, but not too far, as his athleticism and ceiling are sure to be enticing. Full transparency with this process: I had Davis, the best college bat in the class, down one rung from here until I heard from some other scouting directors who adhere to the “Pirates want a hitter” theory and believe Meyer, Lawlar and Davis are the three they like the most. If the Pirates were to take Davis, they would likely save even more money, which they could use later on in the Draft. And rest assured, Pirates fans, they’ll use every dollar of their bonus pool this year. But no, the Pirates would not take Davis, who has a very strong arm but not as solid overall receiving skills behind the plate, because they lack catching in their system.

Possibility: Leiter
Some teams feel the Pirates aren’t considering a pitcher of any kind, but even if he’s not a front-runner, Leiter is still in the conversation. He does have excellent stuff, is coming off an outstanding year in college baseball’s best conference, including a strong College World Series showing, and, of course, the MLB genes. The flip side of the coin is the lack of track record as this has been his only full college season, his less-than-prototypical size for a top pick, and command that hasn’t been quite as sharp as some expected.

Wild card: Watson
Watson took excellent advantage of his high school season starting late. While Lawlar and Mayer had been done for some time, scouts were pouring in to see Watson play and, to his credit, he performed very well in front of a lot of decision-makers. He showed off more power and more speed consistently as teams picking in the top 10 often sent in multiple levels of scouts in to see him. A month ago, Watson wasn’t even in this conversation, but he’s played himself into the mix in some capacity, but because he’s a relative newcomer to the discussion, the Pirates have not done as much work on him as the others on this list.

Outside looking in: Rocker
I know to some this seems like some kind of precipitous fall for Rocker, who many thought was going to be the slam-dunk choice in 2021, this year’s Strasburg. Heck, there were even #TankForKumar hashtags in Pittsburgh late last year. And while we did have him No. 1 on our Top 100 rankings last December, we’ve been pretty outspoken in saying those Strasburg comparisons weren’t fair, with the Nationals star a more advanced pitcher coming out of San Diego State than Rocker is now, especially in terms of his command. Rocker had a very good year as Vanderbilt’s Friday starter, but there were enough ups-and-downs in terms of that command and the crispness of his stuff to leave him off the top of this wish list. The Pirates might still talk about him a bit to make sure they’ve done due diligence, but he’s seeming more like a back half of the top 10 kind of pick, which is nothing to sneeze at.