Here are 5 wise wagers for tonight's games

September 13th, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.

It’s not every day there are 17 MLB games being played. There are plenty of options to pick from on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Red Sox vs. Yankees
The wager: Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases
Line: +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)

Devers struggled against righties in the second half of August, but he seems to be back on track. He’s hitting .368 with a .263 ISO against them since the calendar turned over to September. He’s also hitting a lot of fly balls against righties, which should play well against Gerrit Cole.

Lefties have a 44.8% fly-ball rate against New York’s ace across his last five starts. Boston also isn’t presenting the best weather conditions, although the game doesn’t seem to be in danger of a rainout. But those are a few little things that should help Devers in a matchup he adores. In 28 at-bats against Cole, he’s hitting .286 with a whopping six home runs.

The Cardinals are heavy favorites in this one but using Draftkings’ Same Game Parlay function allows us to bring that line down to a much better number while pairing it with a comfortable pick. The total on Montgomery’s straight-up strikeout prop is set at 4.5, so this is just a slight tick down -- but that makes all the difference.

The left-hander has logged four-plus strikeouts in 23 of his 28 starts. Since joining the Cardinals, he’s gone over this number in six of seven starts -- the one exception being his first outing for the Cardinals. Putting that success rate to the test against a Milwaukee lineup that has a 29.4% strikeout rate since mid-August shouldn’t be an issue.

All around, the Brewers haven’t been great against left-handers of late. They’re among the middle of the pack in ISO against lefties during the aforementioned time frame, and they’re hitting a lot of balls on the ground. St. Louis’ lineup, on the other hand, is mashing both lefties and righties, and they should see a mix of both, with expected to serve as opener on Tuesday.

Rangers vs. Athletics
The wager: Josh Jung over 1.5 total bases
Line: +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)

Jung’s MLB career is off to a hot start, and there’s a chance that continues Tuesday. Although he’s only hitting .250, he has an extra-base hit in four of his first six MLB games. That’s the same number of extra-base hits Oakland left-hander has given up to right-handed hitters in his first two MLB starts. Two of Jung’s extra-base hits have come in his seven plate appearances against lefties, further indicating he’s in position for another strong showing.

D-backs vs. Dodgers
The wager: D-backs plus 1.5 runs
Line: -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Arizona at +170 on the moneyline with on the bump at home is a compelling option, but there are numbers that led to choosing a safer route while still getting a near-even-money play.

First off, Kelly has been very good at home. His 2.92 ERA should be able to largely maintain, given his FIP is a tick lower at 2.90. While Kelly is coming off a rough showing at the hands of the Padres, and the Dodgers have been hitting righties well lately, Kelly has displayed an ability to bounce back this season. The last five times he’s failed to log a quality start, he gave up one or no runs in the following outing.

He’ll go toe-to-toe with , who isn’t the ideal handedness matchup for Arizona. However, Kershaw has a career 4.03 ERA at Chase Field. Also, L.A. is 7-6 in Kershaw’s starts against everyone outside of the Giants this season. And while these two teams are among baseball’s best on the run line, Arizona has won or only lost by one run in 21 of Kelly’s 28 starts this season.

Mariners vs. Padres
The wager: Mariners moneyline
Line: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Seattle isn’t getting any respect with this line. The Mariners have been far superior to the Padres of late. This line feels like it’s paying too much attention to the name recognition within San Diego’s roster.

Since mid-August, Seattle has had one of the best lineups in baseball against right-handed pitching. Despite only having a .248 BABIP, they’ve still managed a .211 ISO during that span. The Padres haven’t posted a much better BABIP within the split (.250), but their .125 ISO ranks among the 10 worst during that span.

Now, ’s 3.60 home ERA is quite a bit worse than his 2.95 road ERA, but it’s still solid. Furthermore, he has a 3.06 home FIP and 3.29 home xFIP. So, all signs point to him continuously putting Seattle in position to win at home. Some of ’s road numbers indicate he’s due for improved play away from San Diego, but he hasn’t been as effective as Gilbert. More importantly, Darvish will face a lineup that’s been clicking of late, unlike the one that’s backing him.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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