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Is Tuesday the day? Will Aaron Judge finally go deep for No. 61? We take a look at the information surrounding Yankees-Blue Jays while examining some of the best bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Yankees at Blue Jays
The wager: Aaron Judge over 0.5 home runs
Line: +190 (Bet $100 to win $190)

Yes, Sept. 27, 2022, is the day. Not that it will be remembered for long, because No. 62 (or wherever Judge ends up) will be the highlight seen for years.

Judge enters Tuesday riding a six-game homerless streak. It’s not his longest of the year, but he hasn’t had many stretches this long. Still, he’s made a lot of quality contact during this span -- when he’s connected, that is. He has both a 30.8% strikeout and walk rate in these last six games. But, he also has both a 40% line-drive and fly-ball rate, along with a 50% hard-contact rate. Even though this is a small sample size, Judge’s season-long fly-ball rate and hard-contact are right around those numbers.

It doesn’t matter who the home run comes off, but José Berríos is the pitcher we know Judge will see multiple times in this one. In 23 plate appearances against the Toronto righty, Judge is hitting .400 with a double and two home runs. But the real kicker is Berríos hasn’t been striking out many right-handed hitters, posting a 12.2% strikeout rate against them across his last five starts. He’s also kept the walks against righties under control during this time (6.1%).

Another appealing bet in this one: Anthony Rizzo over 1.5 total bases (+105).

Reds at Pirates
The wager: Hunter Greene over 7.5 strikeouts
Line: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

Greene has been cooking with gas since his return from the injured list. After punching out 11 in St. Louis, he struck out eight vs. the Brewers. Two more strikeouts during that span and he’d have struck out half the batters he’s faced since returning from the IL. That absurd rate isn’t sustainable long-term, but that’s not the concern at the moment.

Now, Greene has only gone over this number seven times in 22 starts. But four of those outings have come in his last six. And even when he wasn’t racking up strikeouts to that level earlier in the season, Greene managed to K nine vs. the Pirates back on May 15.

That’s on-brand for Pittsburgh, though. It has a 25.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this year. So its 25.3% K rate against righties this month is an accurate representation of the strikeout issues this lineup possesses.

D-backs at Astros
The wager: Zach Davies over 4.5 hits allowed
Line: -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Davies tends to hover right around this number, giving up four to five hits in 10 of his 29 starts this season. Yet he’s only gone over this number 10 times in all, finishing just shy of the five-hit mark in eight outings.

While the Astros don’t have the best numbers against righties this month, they’ve done well against them at home. And they’ve managed to put together a .238 ISO against righties in Houston throughout September despite only having .260 BABIP in that same split.

On top of all that, the Astros only have a 20.1% strikeout rate against righties in Houston this month (and an even lower mark when you factor in road games). Davies has had a solid season, but that still does not make him a strikeout pitcher.

Of course, Davies being on the mound also puts Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (-105) in play.

Dodgers at Padres
The wager: Dodgers moneyline
Line: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

This game features two left-handed pitchers who’ve done well this month and a pair of lineups that’ve been crushing left-handed pitching. This game could shake down in a few different ways, but it’s hard to ignore the Dodgers at nearly even-money.

Also, for as good as Blake Snell has been this month, he did have one hiccup earlier in September -- and it came against the same team he’ll see Tuesday. A similar outcome could very well occur again in this meeting. L.A. comes into this series sporting a .229 ISO against lefties in September.

While the Padres’ .244 ISO against lefties this month is a bit better, they just played in Colorado -- which helped them boost that number and also will make Tuesday’s contest and adjustment for the Padres because of the significant setting change. That plays into Tyler Anderson’s hand, who has bounced back well after losses this season and has comfortably handled the Padres since they hit him hard on April 23.

Giants vs. Rockies
The wager: Logan Webb over 4.5 strikeouts
Line: +105 (Bet $100 to win $105)

The Rockies only have a 22.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. But per usual, when you take them out of Colorado, those numbers skew in some fashion toward opposing pitchers. In this case, the Rockies’ strikeout rate against right-handed pitching jumps up to 24.1% -- that puts them among the 10 worst teams in terms of road K rate against right-handed pitching in 2022.

This month, it’s only been worse for Colorado. Their 27.1% strikeout rate against righties this month is the third-worst in the game. On the road, that stat balloons up to 31.8% -- the highest number of any team within the split.

That bodes extremely well for Webb, who’s gone over this number twice in his three starts against the Rockies this season. Logging five-plus strikeouts isn’t out of the ordinary for the San Francisco right-hander, either. He’s done so in 21 of his 31 starts this year. In 16 home starts, he’s gone over this number 10 times.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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