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The cost of an MLB jersey number in 2014: A rigorous economic study

The cost of an MLB jersey number in 2014

By Ben Cosman

The study of economics relies on the assumption that an economic market is comprised of rational individuals acting in their own best interest. Apparently, no one has ever studied the market of baseball players trading jersey numbers. But with a bounty of recent data to evaluate, what better time than now for a highly scientific economic analysis?

Our premise: Jersey numbers are inherently valuable to MLB players. When able, players prefer to keep their current number rather than changing to a new one. Occasionally, when a player joins a new team either through trade or free agent signing and thus brings his jersey number from one team to another, a doubling will occur: two players -- one new, one existing -- will have the same jersey number. And so, the players must decide -- through means and method of their own devising -- which player will wear the disputed number for the upcoming season, and which will switch to a new number.

It's that last part that leads us to the MLB jersey number market. Typically a trade will occur -- but that's no guarantee, and the value attributed to the number in question is entirely dependent on the individual players staking claim to that number. And because each instance of a doubled jersey number is its own unique economic event, this leads to a wildly volatile jersey number market.

Our hypothesis: There is no rhyme or reason to the value of a jersey number.

Evidence: During a press conference on Thursday, new Mariner Nelson Cruz revealed that he traded manager Lloyd McClendon "a few cigars" in exchange for No. 23. Now, the values attributable to "a few cigars" could be anywhere from less than $10 to over $500, but let's be generous and assign Cruz's cigars a value of $200.

Wednesday, Josh Reddick tweeted that new A's teammate Billy Butler had, in exchange for No. 16, given him a WARN 28500 XD9000 winch, which is available for purchase on Amazon for roughly $950.

Earlier this season, when the Red Sox traded him to the Cardinals, John Lackey sent Pat Neshek a baseball autographed by Babe Ruth. A Ruth-autographed ball sold in February for more than $250,000, but the signature on Lackey's is slightly more faded and doesn't have quite the story, so we'll value it at $150,000.

Just before the 2014 season began, Ubaldo Jimenez joined the Orioles. In exchange for No. 31, Jimenez gave Kevin Gausman a Rolex watch. We don't know exactly what model, and Rolexes range in price, but we'll value it at $7,500 for convenience's sake.

Now, what does that look like graphed?

jerseynumbers.jpg

That is not what a stable economic market looks like. And that's before we even taken into account the unquantifiable.

This offseason, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny surrendered No. 22 to Jason Heyward, a number Heyward wears in honor of his late high school teammate. Last offseason, Robinson Cano voluntarily switched numbers when he joined the Mariners out of respect for Ken Griffey Jr. How do you place a value on things like significant emotional meaning and "respect?"

Our conclusion: The market for MLB jersey numbers will remain prone to drastic fluctuations and incalculable sentiment attachments until a consistent and viable exchange rate is implemented. Until then, MLB players will continue to do things like set up college funds for teammates' children in return for jersey numbers. Which, actually, is pretty great.