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SAN DIEGO -- Two months ago -- after a disappointing finish to the 2019 season -- the Padres seemed destined to become one of the pitching market's biggest players. But as the Winter Meetings began Monday at the Manchester Grand Hyatt in downtown San Diego, general manager A.J. Preller continued to distance himself from that notion.
"We feel good about the pitchers we have in-house right now," Preller said. "The exciting part is we have a lot of options coming through the system that we're going to rely on, that we're going to count on."
Thus far, Preller has swapped left-hander Eric Lauer for former Brewers righty Zach Davies. But he's done little else to address the rotation. Here are six takeaways on where things stand in the Padres' pitching search:
1) Strasburg is out. In reality, so is Cole
Stephen Strasburg is no longer an option for the Padres. Turns out, he never really was.
The Padres once seemed like a logical fit for the San Diego native. But when the price became apparent -- Strasburg signed with Washington for seven years and $245 million on Monday -- Preller bowed out.
The same thinking holds true with Gerrit Cole, by far the top arm on the market now. The Padres may have splurged for Manny Machado last offseason. But they believe there are too many holes on the roster to view Cole or Strasburg as a one-stop fix.
"Well deserved," Preller said of the Strasburg signing. "From our standpoint, our focus, we've been looking to try to expand and spread out our resources."
2) A mid-tier starter is still possible, but unlikely
Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels are all off the board. Among the second tier of pitchers, that might leave only Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel.
All three of those options are intriguing, and all three would undoubtedly give the Padres' rotation a boost. But at what cost? And for how many years?
Preller is trying to build a rotation for the long haul, and committing to a high-priced veteran isn't his preferred move. That's because ...
3) Preller really likes his young pitchers
Chris Paddack posted a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP as a rookie, and the Padres figure he'll headline their rotation for at least the next five years. Preller feels as though he might have two more Chris Paddacks waiting in the wings. MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patiño are two of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in the sport, and they'll probably debut at some point in 2020.
"They have to force their way onto the big league roster," Preller said. "You never look to hand over a Major League opportunity. But they're talented. We know they have real ability, front-of-the rotation type ability. ... We'll have them in the back of our mind, but they'll have to force their way onto the big league club."
Paddack, Gore and Patino –- that’s the future. In theory, it’s the group that will lead the Padres into contention. But what about 2020?
4) The Padres might bridge the gap by supplementing the bullpen
The Padres seem content to let their top pitching prospects develop and ultimately anchor their long-term rotation. But they also want to contend in 2020. That's quite a juxtaposition.
That's why Preller's doing his best to build an elite bullpen this winter. He's already landed left-hander Drew Pomeranz on a four-year deal, and sources say he's still actively scouring the relief market.
Pomeranz should join a deep group of back-end relievers who will set up lockdown closer Kirby Yates. Andres Muñoz, Matt Strahm and José Castillo are also part of that group. Add another right-handed weapon to that mix, and the Padres plan to shorten games significantly.
Say Gore and Patino arrive early: The Padres would be able to control their innings because of their deep bullpen. Say Joey Lucchesi or Cal Quantrill anchor those spots instead: Maybe five-innings-a-night is the right number to ask for.
After the Trade Deadline last season, Adrian Morejon and Michel Baez earned surprise callups to the big league club. As two of the organization's top pitching prospects, the Padres wanted to see how the duo's stuff played in the bullpen.
Right now, with Gore and Patiño seemingly untouchable, Morejon and Baez remain two of Preller's most enticing trade chips. But if they're still with the Padres next spring, it appears they'll get another shot as starters.
Of course, there are question marks surrounding both as rotation options. Baez doesn't quite have a reliable third offering, and Morejon has dealt with injury concerns. But if either of them can reach his ceiling as a starter, the Padres' long-term rotation will be further solidified.
6) Still, the Padres might add a starter
Preller continues to reiterate his belief in his current rotation. That doesn't mean he's done looking for upgrades.
Perhaps the likeliest scenario would see the Padres add a back-end starting pitcher to compete for a place in the rotation. It would alleviate the pressure to rush some of the team’s top prospects to the big leagues.
"We've talked about having depth and quality," Preller said. "And we're getting closer to that point. ... We're always open to talking about trades, free agents on the starting pitching front, but honestly, I think I feel really confident with the group we have."