What's next for the Cubs' top pitching prospect?

June 25th, 2022

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian's Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The first three innings of Caleb Kilian’s big league career were brilliant. Nine up, nine down. Four strikeouts. He shattered Paul Goldschmidt’s bat and got Nolan Arenado to chop a comebacker to the mound. It was a preview of the promise packed into the right arm of the Cubs’ top pitching prospect.

Kilian then learned how quickly things can spiral out of control in the Major Leagues.

“I'm really excited about what we saw in glimpses,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said in a conversation with MLB.com’s Jake Crouse in Pittsburgh this week. “I know it didn't go perfect, but very, very rarely does it go off without a hitch every time a guy comes up for the first time.”

Since the first three innings of that June 4 debut for Kilian -- Pipeline’s No. 5-ranked Cubs prospect and a prized part of last summer’s Kris Bryant trade -- the right-hander has worked 8 1/3 innings across his three starts for Chicago. In that sample, Kilian has issued 12 walks, struck out five and allowed 15 runs (13 earned) on 11 hits.

In the wake of an abbreviated outing Monday against the Pirates, who tagged the rookie for seven runs (five earned) in 2 1/3 innings, the Cubs optioned Kilian back to Triple-A Iowa. Hottovy said they discussed some needed mechanical adjustments with Kilian before he departed, but the main message was to get back to being himself.

“A lot of it is thinking about too much stuff,” Hottovy said. “You come to the big leagues, you want to do everything. You want to try to have command. You want to be able to control the running game and all these little things. And so sometimes, when you try to take in so much stuff, you forget about what makes you the best version of yourself.”

Hottovy said that includes having the 25-year-old Kilian returning to feeling “athletic” and “free” in his delivery, which has helped the righty post strong command-related numbers through the Minors. At Triple-A this season, Kilian has a 2.51 ERA with a 25.7 percent strikeout rate and an 8.7 percent walk rate through 10 starts. He was even better across three levels in 2021.

While discussing Kilian’s command issues in his brief taste of the Majors, Hottovy cited Atlanta pitcher Kyle Wright. From 2017-21, Wright’s walk rate hovered between 7.3-9.2 percent in the Minors. The righty had MLB outings across ’18-21, posting a 14.8 percent walk rate in that span. This year? The 26-year-old Wright has a 3.18 ERA through 14 outings with a more characteristic 26.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.8 percent walk rate.

“You can talk to them about it all you want,” Hottovy said. “They’ve just got to go through it and experience it. And now, once he knows what makes him successful, gets back to his basics, I think you'll see him just absolutely thrive and flourish. So, it's definitely not uncommon. You try to give the guys the best framework for success, and sometimes you just have to fail to learn, you know? It's part of it.”