SAN DIEGO -- The Padres’ rotation depth is thin. That’s not exactly a secret.
Even with Michael King returning, Dylan Cease signed with the Blue Jays, and Yu Darvish is slated to miss the entire 2026 season following elbow surgery.
But the question marks extend beyond that. The Padres have spent the past few seasons making blockbuster trade after blockbuster trade. Along the way, their upper-level pitching depth has taken a hit. Among the arms to leave the organization: Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Robby Snelling, Dylan Lesko, Adam Mazur, Braden Nett and Henry Baez.
It’s not merely that the Padres need a couple of arms for their big league rotation. It’s that they need to find depth behind that group. The nature of a starting rotation is such that you plan for a five-man staff with about 10 (or more) options for those five spots.
Fortunately for the Padres, there’s a very intriguing internal candidate they managed to hang onto amid their trading frenzy. Right-hander Miguel Mendez was perhaps the organization’s fastest riser last season, and he was rewarded last month by being added to the 40-man roster, protecting him from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft.
“He definitely put himself on the radar in terms of the [40-man] roster and Spring Training,” general manager A.J. Preller said from the Winter Meetings earlier this month. “He’s somebody that if he’s able to take another step from a development standpoint this year, like he did last year, he’ll be somebody at some point that could put himself in position for Petco.”
To be clear, there’s still plenty of development ahead of the 23-year-old Mendez. But he’s been up for every challenge thus far. He began last season with Single-A Lake Elsinore -- and dominated. That earned Mendez a promotion to High-A Fort Wayne -- where he also dominated.
Eventually, Mendez was promoted to Double-A San Antonio, where he made six late-season starts. Even though he largely struggled in those starts, his stuff clearly played. He walked a few too many, but he still struck out more than 12 per nine.
“It was really good development last year,” Preller said. “He’s always been a guy with arm talent, and you start to see him be more consistent last year, putting that arm talent on the field in terms of consistent performances. He’s developed three pitches -- it’s a fastball, slider, changeup. Each one of them, you can grade out as above average.
“I think the consistency of just being able to execute pitch after pitch and locate, that’s probably the next step for him. … He had a great year last year overall. That’s a testament to him and to our pitching group. Really excited to see what he looks like as we go into ’26.”
Mendez’s top priority will be lowering his 11.2% walk rate. Otherwise, he’s nasty. His fastball sits in the high 90s, and his slider bites with a different type of ferocity -- extra horizontal break. He didn’t throw his changeup as often, but it routinely generated whiffs.
There are questions about whether Mendez might fit better in the bullpen -- as there often are for pitchers with whippy mechanics and control questions. But the Padres think it’s worth continuing to explore starting, given Mendez’s three-pitch mix and his ability to make adjustments. (Of course, pitchers like Mendez often break through as relievers, but that wouldn’t rule him out as a starter in the future.)
“He's going to continue to start and come in and build innings,” Preller said. “Again, a lot of guys have broken into the big leagues coming into the bullpen. We’ll see. Right now, he’s more a prospect coming in to continue his development than he is competing for the team coming into Spring Training. But the player is going to tell us. Those things can change.”
Indeed, the Padres are not -- and should not be -- counting on Mendez as part of their season-opening rotation mix. They have serious work left to do this offseason to fill out that group. But they can certainly feel a lot better about their depth with Mendez on board.
“He’s talented,” Preller said. “When you have somebody with talent that’s starting to perform, starting to get more consistent, you never want to put a ceiling and say what next year could mean. I’m hoping next year, he starts to force our hand, puts himself in the mix.”