This story was excerpted from Tim Stebbins’ Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
CLEVELAND -- As the Guardians mulled their starting rotation composition this spring, and whether rookie Parker Messick would be part of their five-man Opening Day mix, they obviously knew something none of us did.
Of course, the left-hander was primed to be a candidate for the AL Cy Young Award, right?
“Oh, we knew that,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti quipped. “We’re perfect at predicting the future.”
All kidding aside, the Guardians (81-75) would not be where they are today -- holding a one-game lead over the White Sox (80-76) in the race for the AL Central title in the final week of the regular season -- without Messick. His emergence into an All-Star, an AL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year Award candidate, and a staff anchor has been vital.
Six months ago, Messick had to earn his spot in the Guardians’ Opening Day rotation. On Tuesday, he will take the mound at Fenway Park in the opener of a crucial three-game series against the Red Sox, as Cleveland looks to move one step closer to clinching a third consecutive division title.
“Like I keep talking about -- Rookie of the Year, Cy Young -- he needs to be in those conversations,” manager Stephen Vogt said. “It’s real. What he’s doing is real, and it’s been super consistent.”
Messick has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball this season. In 30 starts, the 25-year-old has a 2.57 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, 186 strikeouts and just 47 walks over 178 1/3 innings.
Entering Monday, Messick ranked sixth in MLB in ERA among qualified starting pitchers and third in the American League, behind fellow Cy Young Award candidates Cam Schlittler (1.94) and Dylan Cease (2.40). Messick’s bWAR (5.8) only trailed Schlittler (7.0) among AL pitchers, and it was tied with the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto for fifth in the Majors among pitchers.
Among rookies, Messick entered Monday ranked second in fWAR (4.6), behind Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle (5.1).
Messick impressed in a seven-game stint in Cleveland’s rotation down the stretch last season, when he logged a 2.72 ERA to help the Guardians reach the playoffs. It set a foundation for him entering 2026, and he hasn’t let off the gas since. During Spring Training, Vogt noted how even on the backfields, Messick was pitching with a mentality befitting Game 6 of the ALCS.
“Parker has done an extraordinary job,” Antonetti said. “He put in a ton of work last winter to come into Spring Training to force our hand to make a decision. He had a great Spring Training and earned a spot in the rotation.
“That mindset that he had about earning a spot in the rotation, it's incredible. Every day he looks at it that it's his responsibility to put in the work to earn his next start. That's led him to continue to be relentless in his work and desire to improve and get better every day.”
This season, Messick has allowed more than three runs just three times. In his other 27 starts, he’s permitted either three runs (five starts), two runs (eight), one run (11) or zero runs (three).
Last time out, Messick struck out eight batters and allowed three runs on seven hits (including a Tommy Pham three-run home run) to help the Guardians beat the White Sox, 6-3.
That win is currently the difference between the Guardians and the White Sox in the AL Central race. As Messick noted afterward, Wednesday was basically a playoff game for Cleveland. He felt the energy of a rocking atmosphere at Progressive Field that emulated the October stage.
“I finished the first inning and was like, ‘Hey, am I moving slow enough? I'm juiced up right now. How does everything look?’” Messick said Wednesday of his conversations with the Guardians’ pitching coaches. “You can feel that adrenaline. I felt like I was able to hone it in and control it, which was a positive sign for me because I pitch pretty juiced up anyway.”
Each of Messick’s starts the rest of this season will have a similar feel, with the stakes increasingly high. After Tuesday, he would be in line to start in Game 162 on Sunday against the Royals. Otherwise, his next turn could come in the postseason.
The Guardians will be glad to hand him the ball each step of the way.