Digging into World Series odds with latest Rankings

May 16th, 2022

So, another week has gone by and you’re thinking about those World Series odds, aren’t you? Well, that works out great because so am I. To refresh you on how this works, we look at the current Power Rankings for all the MLB teams and compare them to their odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win it all. Let’s get into it, shall we?

New York Yankees
Power Ranking: 1st (last week: 2nd)
World Series Odds: +600

The Dodgers have been dethroned from the number one spot on the Power Rankings. To no one's surprise, the Yankees have risen to the top spot and yet, still have the second-best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s also noteworthy because you can also bet on the winning league, with the American League currently at +100 and the National League at -120.

The month of May has been unreal for the Yankees. As of May 15, they'd gone 10-3 while averaging 5.1 runs per game and allowing an average of just 2.8 runs per game. I cannot state enough how well the pitching has been, with their starters combining for a 3.50 ERA, a 3.28 FIP, a 10.1 K/9 and just a 2.6 BB/9. Then comes the bullpen, which has simply shut the door at nearly every opportunity in front of them. They've only had to throw 42 innings this month but have a 2.14 ERA, a 2.62 FIP, an 8.5 K/9 and a 2.1 BB/9.

All of this combined with some scorching hitting from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and you have a recipe for success. Everything is clicking for this team right now and getting them at 6-1 odds feels like a bit of a gift. They easily could be 4-1 or slightly lower. The American League East is crowded but this Yankees club feels unstoppable at this juncture.

Houston Astros
Power Ranking: 4th (last week 9th)
World Series Odds: +800

Making the biggest jump on the list this week is the Astros. Ranked 9th last week, they now find themselves inside the top five, putting two American League West teams in that realm. I mean, when you’re 5-1 over the course of a week, you're certainly going to move on up. I can’t say I’m crazy about the 8-1 odds for this team, however.

Yes, the Astros are playing very well right now, but is it more to do with their recent schedule? Sure, the Twins are a first-place team in the American League Central, but we’re talking about a division where four of those teams are under .500. The Twins are 20-15 on the season but through Sunday had only a +12 run differential. That razor-thin margin is the lowest amongst all first-place teams in all of baseball. If anything, the expected win/loss for this team is a game difference, as it has them sitting at 19-16. Then, we have the Nationals. They own a -36 run differential with their 12-24 record. Amazingly, they’ve been hitting quite well this month, slashing .292/.352/.444 with a 134 wRC+. It’s been the pitching staff that’s holding Washington back, posting a 5.06 FIP in the month of May.

So, yes, in all, the Astros are playing well. I simply think with a bit of a tougher schedule coming up, this team will take a bit of a step back and you’ll be able to grab some better odds than the current 8-1.

Tampa Bay Rays
Power Ranking: 9th (last week 5th)
World Series Odds: +1900

The Rays at 19-1 look to be one of the better values on the board currently. They didn’t have a great week but it wasn’t all bad, either. For a team that is currently in second place in the American League East, 19-1 feels good. To be fair, this team is due for some regression, as it has a -1 run differential, which gives it an expected win/loss record of 17-18. Luckily for the Rays, they’re about to embark on a very appealing schedule that includes three games against the Tigers, three against the Orioles, two against the Marlins and four against the Yankees. Both the Tigers and Orioles are near the bottom of the league in runs scored this month. The Tigers are ranked dead last with 31 while slashing .208/.259/.304 with a 66 wRC+. This Rays team is going to pick up a number of victories this week and these odds are going to shift. I would grab the Rays before that happens.

Toronto Blue Jays
Power Ranking: 11th (last week 7th)
World Series Odds: +900

The Blue Jays took a dive in the Rankings this week after going 1-4 this week. The only win came on Saturday in a 5-1 game against the Rays. This slides them to third in the American League East and 7 1/2 games back of the Yankees. Luckily for them, they have a safe cushion as both the Orioles and Red Sox are double-digits behind the Yankees. Despite the slide, they still own the fifth-best odds to win it all? Yikes, not my favorite bet on the board by a long shot.

Let’s be honest, this team is struggling to hit. For a team that was hyped up (rightfully so) during the offseason, it hasn’t been the offensive juggernaut that some expected. The big issue has been the bottom of the order. Now don’t get me wrong, if the biggest problem on a team is the bottom of the order, it's usually in a good spot. However, particularly on the Blue Jays, it’s been a big issue. On the season, with men in scoring position, the 6th through 9th hitters have combined to hit .178/.262/.243. They’ve only knocked in 28 runs, which ranks them 26th in the league. For reference, the Giants' 6th-9th hitters top the league with 54. The Blue Jays are going to need more production from the bottom half of the order to knock in their top hitters. Currently, we have too many teams playing much better than the Blue Jays. If this keeps up, the odds will get more desirable.

Philadelphia Phillies
Power Ranking: 16th (last week 19th)
World Series Odds: +3000

A modest push up the list for the Phillies, who are coming off a phenomenal week against the Mariners and Dodgers. Any time you can win a series convincingly against the current World Series odds-on favorite, people should take notice. Over the four-game set at Dodger Stadium, the Phillies piled on 33 runs. The Dodgers have the best run differential in the league at +70, but that’s a number that was much bigger prior to this series.

The only issue here is the remaining schedule for the Phillies this month. After the off-day on Monday, they begin a 16-day stretch of baseball that includes three against the Padres, three against the Dodgers, four against the Braves, three against the Mets and three against the Giants. If they can come out of this stretch playing well, you aren’t going to see anywhere near 30-1 odds. Everything feels as if it’s clicking for this team and quite frankly, this is a very make-or-break stretch for this club. Of these games, nine of them will be at home, where they average 4.4 runs per game. If they come out and win at least two of these series, you must think the odds will fall a considerable amount. Getting a team on a hot streak at 30-1 is extremely enticing and one I’d be looking to take.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbookand all odds subject to change.

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