Our expert picks for each MLB Wild Card Series

October 3rd, 2023

The 2023 MLB Postseason is here.

All four Wild Card Series will start on Tuesday, with the Rangers and Rays kicking off the action at 3:08 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. Later that afternoon, the Twins will host the Blue Jays while the D-backs play the Brewers and Marlins visit the Phillies in the evening.

With that, we asked a number of MLB.com experts to take their best shots at forecasting the first round of 2023 Postseason. Check out their picks for each series below.

Rangers (5) at Rays (4)

The pick: Rays

The home Rays are the clear favorite here.

Tampa Bay was consistently one of the best teams in baseball all season, falling just short of 100 wins and the AL East crown. Both teams come into this series a bit banged up, but it appears the Rays have the edge in terms of roster depth.

Our voters think the Rays also have a clear advantage in the bullpen, which struggled for the Rangers all season, a factor that will surely come into play during this short series.

  • “The Rangers look gassed heading into the postseason. Meanwhile, the Rays essentially clinched this spot a month ago. They rested key players and are ready to go.” – Arturo Pardavila, editor
  • “It comes down to the bullpens, and I trust the Rays more than I do the Rangers.” – Anne Rogers, reporter
  • “Even without the key players they lost during the season, the Rays remained the AL’s second-best team.” – Mark Bowman, reporter

The dissenting view

  • “I just remember what Corey Seager did the last time he faced the Rays in the postseason." – Alan Rittner, reporter/producer

Blue Jays (6) at Twins (3)

The pick: Blue Jays

This one was easily the closest call among the four series.

The Blue Jays, despite traveling to Minnesota, are the slight favorites among our experts to reach the divisional round. Both of these teams have a similar profile with strong rotations and a lineup full of mashers.

But Toronto is coming into the game much healthier while Minnesota deals with injuries to three of its key hitters.

  • “The Twins are primed to end their postseason losing streak, but with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton all dealing with injuries – and not knowing what, if any, contributions they can make -- that gives the edge to Toronto.” – Paul Casella, reporter
  • “The Blue Jays' offensive firepower is too tough to contain in a short series, even by the pitching-rich Twins.” – Adrian Garro, reporter/producer
  • “Both teams have strikingly similar '23 offenses and pitching staffs but Minnesota hitters' propensity to swing and miss will cost them.” – Brent Maguire, researcher

The dissenting view

  • “The Twins' pitching, which includes starters Sonny Gray and Pablo López and closer Jhoan Duran -- a 105-mph flamethrower who enters games to flames and spiders and Pitbull -- will be too much for Blue Jays hitters.” – Matthew Monagan, reporter
  • “They're better than you think. Their pitchers, for the first time ever, strike people out. Bullpen is deep, and they hit dingers. That's a formula for success in October.” – James Banks, editor

Marlins (5) at Phillies (4)

The pick: Phillies

After a World Series appearance last year, the Phillies are our pick to once again make an appearance in the divisional round.

The young Marlins will have to overcome Philadelphia’s roster full of players with playoff experience if they want to pull off the upset.

Miami rode solid starting pitching to make it into the postseason on the regular season’s final weekend, but that strength is hobbled as they visit Philadelphia.

  • “Injuries to Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez have come at the worst possible time for Miami.” – Brian Murphy, reporter
  • “I don't trust the Marlins' bats enough to damage both Wheeler and Nola, and Orion Kerkering is so nasty plus fresh that he can be a secret weapon to close down a late threat.” – Jake Crouse, reporter
  • “The Marlins will put up a fight, but the Phillies proved last year they know how to turn it on come October.” – Casey Drottar, reporter

The dissenting view

  • “The Marlins have won four of six games at Citizens Bank Park this year and if Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler -- stars who love the spotlight -- can get hot, they can carry this offense over a Phillies rotation that has not been as good as last year.” – Matthew Monagan, reporter
  • “The Marlins have a knack for winning once they get to the postseason and will upset the Phillies.” – Rhett Bollinger, reporter

D-backs (6) at Brewers (3)

The pick: Brewers

Our experts like the Brewers to make it out of the Wild Card round more than any other team.

The short, three-game series seemingly gives Milwaukee the advantage, even after Brandon Woodruff’s injury, with starters Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta healthy and lined up to pitch.

They'll need to keep the uber-athletic D-backs off the bases — and figure out how to score runners of their own — if they want to move on.

  • “The Brewers' experience gives them the edge against a young D-backs lineup that disappears too often when it matters.” – Michael Reynolds, producer
  • “The Brewers pitching staff is incredible. One of the nastiest bullpens in baseball to finish things up for arguably the best rotation in baseball.” – Brett Blueweiss, social media content producer
  • “The pitching didn't line up right for the D-backs; the Brewers won't need to score many runs to win, but they'll be able to.” – Will Leitch, columnist

The dissenting view

  • “Corbin Carroll is going to be the best player on the field in this series, and that will swing the balance toward Arizona.” – Andrew Simon, editor