This story was excerpted from Zachary Silver’s Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Draft day is upon us, and this is a fascinating one within the city limits of Baltimore.
The Orioles have the first pick, their second time doing so in the last four Drafts (their third time picking within the top two) and the fifth time executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has done so, dating back to his time with the Astros. One further thing -- the O’s have four Day 1 picks, and they are operating with the second-largest bonus pool in history.
But this year’s iteration comes as the Orioles have turned a corner toward contention, their ascendant first half being one of the best stories in baseball. Whomever they take first overall -- as well as with any of the ensuing picks -- will be an injection into an already top-rated farm system that is starting to see the fruits of its rebuild play out.
Orioles’ Draft Day info
First pick and bonus slot: No. 1 overall, $8,842,200
Additional first-day picks: Nos. 33, 42 and 67 overall
Total bonus pool: $16,924,000 (second-highest bonus pool in history)
Last three first picks: OF Colton Cowser, OF Heston Kjerstad, C Adley Rutschman
Best pick of the last 10 years, per MLB Pipeline: Rutschman (2019, first round)
• Draft Central | Order | Pools & pick values | Top 250 | What to know | Tracker
Here are three things I’m looking out for on Draft day, as well as what might come on Days 2 and 3.
1) How will pick No. 1 orient the Orioles' Draft?
The Orioles surprised the baseball world in the past two Drafts by taking Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad with their top selections. Both were highly touted players, but neither expected to go as high as they did, Cowser fifth overall and Kjerstad second.
But early savings were later investments. In each Draft, Baltimore spent high in later rounds for prospects such as Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler (2020) and John Rhodes and Creed Willems (’21), who now stand tall in rankings.
The Orioles’ messaging in drafting has been clear since Elias took over in 2019, no matter how they approach it:
“We take the player that we want to take and that we want to start our Draft with and that we feel is going to kick off the maximization of the Draft class,” Elias said recently. “... Rest assured that we are going into any high pick that we have with the goal of maximizing the output of that pick itself.”
The last time the Orioles had the top overall pick, in 2019, they felt Adley Rutschman was a slam dunk among three possibilities. That’s not as much the case this go-around.
So could it be top-end talent like Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday? Or maybe someone more surefire from the college ranks like Brooks Lee, with an eye on spending more on the picks that follow? That’ll just be a wait-and-see.
2) Will we see any high schoolers early?
There are two truisms at play in this Draft. The first is that the Orioles have taken only one high schooler within the first two rounds (Gunnar Henderson, in 2019) under Elias. The second: the consensus top of the big boards is littered with high schoolers -- including Jones, Holliday, Elijah Green and Termarr Johnson.
The Orioles’ makeup to date has seen more surefire hitters from the college ranks, knowing their drafting strategy can’t have many misses if they want the organization to remain in a healthy, ever-flowing churn.
But does the reassuring emergence of Henderson, now the No. 5 prospect in baseball despite being just 21, and the overall health of the farm system perhaps allow the Orioles to swing big on a player like Jones or Holliday?
“Listen, I love taking high-school hitters,” Elias said. “We don't do it left and right, willy-nilly, but I think that we look back on the Drafts that [vice president and assistant general manager, analytics] Sig [Mejdal] and I have been big parts of here or with the Astros, it's a pretty good group of high-school hitters.”
If not first overall, Elias did make explicit mention of the possibility of looking at high schoolers at picks 33 and 42. Signability does become a factor the further down you go with a high schooler … another aspect worth watching with the top overall pick.
3) What about pitchers?
There was one thing Elias was blunt about: The Orioles will not take a pitcher first overall. Much of that is because of the lack of top-rated pitching talent atop big boards. Our Draft guru, Jim Callis, said this week that it’s possible the top 10 selections are all hitters -- something that has never happened since the Draft began in 1965.
“In terms of pitchers, there never has been a Draft more confusing than this one,” Callis wrote.
The Orioles know this. They see their next playoff-bound rotation inclusive of current prospects along with some more known entities they may have to go out and acquire. Pitchers are better lottery tickets when they’re known entities.
Since the previous regime selected DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez in the first round of the 2017 and ’18 Drafts, Elias hasn’t selected a pitcher higher than the fifth round, honors that belong to Carter Baumler (133rd overall, ’20) and Carlos Tavera (137th overall, ’21). Might this year be different?