Jekyll and Hyde teams: Which shows up in 2020?

June 29th, 2020

A 162-game season allows for the ebbs and flows of a marathon, but a 60-game sprint does not.

A two-month regular season turns the pressure up immediately, and it's imperative for every team to play its best baseball right out of the gate. But that won't end up being the case for everyone, of course. That’s why a recent tweet from YES Network researcher James Smyth caught this author’s attention. Smyth dove into last year’s results and dug up each of the 30 teams’ best and worst 60-game stretches:

The 103-win Yankees were last year’s most consistent club, with their absolute worst 60-game record -- despite a never-ending list of injuries to their stars -- being a still more-than-respectable 37-23 (a 100-win pace), which was still within five wins of their best 60-game stretch at 42-18. But for the five teams below who experienced the widest disparities, success in 2020 will depend upon dusting off their best baseball straight away. For roughly two-month stretches, these clubs played playoff-caliber baseball. At other times, they played like cellar-dwellers. Here’s a look at how and why each stretch happened, and what these teams can take away from their Jekyll and Hyde performances.

Rockies (Overall record: 71-91)

The bad times
16-44, two different stretches between June 30 - Sept. 8
Left-hander Kyle Freeland, positioned as the club’s ace after a breakout 2018, struggled so badly out of the gate that Colorado optioned him to Triple-A. He didn’t fare much better when he returned, and then he landed on the injured list with a groin injury. Meanwhile, Jon Gray was the only starter who finished the season with an ERA below 4.50. Closer Wade Davis led the National League in saves in ‘18 but imploded last summer, putting up an 8.83 ERA during this stretch. And Colorado's offense looked nonexistent away from Coors Field. The Rockies’ 6-19 record in July marked their worst in any calendar month in franchise history, essentially knocking them out of the postseason picture.

The good times
37-23, two stretches between April 13 - June 21
Nolan Arenado woke up after a slow opening fortnight (zero homers in his first 61 at-bats), and so did the Rockies. Arenado surged to a 1.262 OPS and nine homers in May, backed by excellent offensive and defensive production from Trevor Story and a gradual warmup by free-agent signing Daniel Murphy. Gray and German Marquez won a combined 13 of 17 decisions at the top of the rotation, and reliever Scott Oberg was lights-out (1.53 ERA) during this stretch.

The takeaway
Things didn’t get any easier over the offseason as trade rumors swirled around Arenado, but it goes without saying that the Rockies won’t get anywhere if he’s slow out of the blocks. Limiting the schedule to many pitcher-friendly ballparks out West could help, but Colorado needs a ton of things to turn around on the mound.

Angels (Overall record: 72-90)

The bad times
19-41, July 24 - Sept. 29
The Halos had just gotten themselves to a season-high five games above .500 and looked ready to battle for a Wild Card spot, and then the injuries came in droves. An ankle injury sidelined Andrelton Simmons, starters Griffin Canning and Félix Peña hurt their elbows, Mike Trout suffered a pinched nerve in his toe, Shohei Ohtani needed knee surgery and Justin Upton received a PRP injection in his knee. It’s little wonder Los Angeles fell off.

The good times
34-26, four stretches between May 9 - July 31
Trout slugged as much as he ever has and laid the foundation for his third American League Most Valuable Player Award. Ohtani shook off some early-season rust and started crushing baseballs again. Kole Calhoun homered in bunches. The Angels needed all that offense, considering their starters struggled to a 4.79 ERA during this span (and a 5.57 ERA specifically in July).

The takeaway
The Angels will likely need the same formula this year: Slug as much possible and hope the starting pitching is good enough. Adding Anthony Rendon to the lineup definitely helps, but Los Angeles has to keep Trout and Ohtani healthy at all costs.

Cardinals (Overall record: 91-71)

The bad times
25-35, two stretches between May 1 - July 13
After a solid April start, the power disappeared from Paul Goldschmidt’s bat, leading many to worry about the Cardinals’ major offseason trade acquisition. Jack Flaherty, who had shown so much promise as a rookie the year prior, carried an ERA hovering near 5.00 into July, and Opening Day starter Miles Mikolas also appeared to have regressed from 2018. Then closer Jordan Hicks, who was making big strides in his sophomore year, tore the UCL in his right elbow.

The good times
40-20, two stretches between July 3 - Sept. 23
Well, Flaherty pitching the best second half of anyone since Jake Arrieta in 2015 was a huge boost. Goldschmidt returned to form (.742 OPS through July 2, .908 OPS the rest of the way), while Tommy Edman (14th in MLB fWAR from July 3 through season’s end) made big contributions while playing all over the diamond. Kolten Wong erupted in the second half before straining his left hamstring in late September, stabilizing the top of the lineup. Carlos Martínez stepped into the closer’s role and led the NL in saves the rest of the way. And the Cardinals’ infield defense shone more and more as the season wore on.

The takeaway
If Goldschmidt avoids another slow start, Flaherty continues to pitch like an ace and the defense is rock solid again, St. Louis should be right in the thick of things.

Mets (Overall record: 86-76)

The bad times
24-36, three stretches between April 24 - July 12
The offseason trade with the Mariners that general manager Brodie Van Wagenen staked so much on didn’t pan out in Year 1. Robinson Canó (.606 OPS, 1 HR in 44 games) struggled mightily during this stretch, as did Edwin Díaz (four blown saves, 7.01 ERA), who would lose primary ownership of the closer’s role later in the summer. Jeurys Familia pitched even worse, meaning Seth Lugo was the only reliable option at the back of the bullpen. Throw in off-the-field distractions from pitcher Jason Vargas and manager Mickey Callaway, and it was a tough time to be in Queens.

The good times
39-21, two stretches between July 25 - Sept. 29
After surprising fans and analysts alike by not dealing away aces Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler -- and instead adding Marcus Stroman -- at the July 31 Trade Deadline, the Mets caught fire down the stretch. The superstars led the way, with Jacob deGrom sewing up a second straight NL Cy Young Award and Pete Alonso mashing his way to a new rookie home run record, but other hitters like Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Amed Rosario vastly improved, too.

The takeaway
Even with Syndergaard (Tommy John surgery) and Wheeler (signed with the Phillies) now out of the picture, there were a lot of positives to come out of the stretch run. The lineup looks deep, even moreso if Yoenis Céspedes can contribute. deGrom is still deGrom, and Stroman gives New York a solid 1-2 rotation punch. Avoid the off-field distractions and bank on a return to form by Díaz.

Nationals (Overall record: 93-69)

The bad times
27-33, five stretches between March 28 - June 16
You’re familiar with this tale. The Nationals went 19-31 in their first 50 contests (and were still six games below .500 at the end of the 60-game stretches mentioned here) before becoming the first team to win the World Series after starting that poorly. The bullpen was historically bad, with Sean Doolittle seemingly the only reliever that manager Dave Martinez trusted, and the defense was porous. Those two factors combined to render the strong contributions of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin moot.

The good times
41-19, two stretches between June 16 - Sept. 3
Washington’s veteran personnel didn’t panic. Anthony Rendon (.356/.422/.629, 17 HRs during this stretch) and Juan Soto (.309/.426/.658, 21 HRs) caught fire while a healthy Trea Turner and Adam Eaton set the table. The rotation was MLB’s best during this stretch -- with Strasburg and Corbin continuing to be lights-out and Aníbal Sánchez pitching capably while Scherzer was on the injured list -- to cover for a bullpen that still struggled mightily.

The takeaway
Maximize your team’s strengths and minimize its weaknesses as much as possible. The Nationals were a talented club with one subpar unit, and the offense and rotation carried them. That might need to be the case again.