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A few favorites stand out on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend, so we’ll find a few ways to back them while still looking for a quality payout.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

SATURDAY

Astros vs. Orioles
The wager: Framber Valdez over 6.5 strikeouts
Line: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

Valdez isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but he’s not far off from averaging one strikeout per inning this season -- and while logging a career-high 185 2/3 innings. He’s punched out at least seven hitters in exactly half of his 28 starts this year. A solid mark for the season, but not a settling number when approaching this play.

However, eight of those seven-plus strikeout performances have come in his last 10 starts. The two outings he struck out fewer than seven did come on the road, which is where he finds himself Saturday, but those starts were against two lineups that don’t strike out often against lefties (the Guardians and White Sox). The Orioles, on the other hand, have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against lefties this year (24.9%). In September, they have a 25% K rate against left-handed pitching and a home K rate of 24.5% against lefties.

Padres at Rockies
The wager: Jake Cronenworth over 1.5 total bases
Line: -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Cronenworth is far from the first hitter that jumps to mind when considering hitter props. The lefty bat is only hitting .235 with a .146 ISO against righties this season. When you zoom in on his number against righties this month, things get even uglier.

But, he’s been making a lot of quality contact against right-handed pitching throughout September. Cronenworth has a 45.7% fly ball rate and 23.9% line drive rate against righties this month, and just a 17.1% K rate. Yet, he has a .217 BABIP and .088 ISO against them. He’s due, and Chad Kuhl is the pitcher who can help him get back on track.

Left-handed hitters have posted a 54.5% fly-ball rate and 61.8% hard-contact rate against the Colorado right-hander across his last five starts. Also, Cronenworth is 5-for-10 with two doubles and two home runs in his career against Kuhl.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants
The wager: Diamondbacks moneyline
Line: -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Merrill Kelly’s September hasn’t gone too well, but that’s mainly because he had to face the Dodgers in back-to-back outings. Los Angeles is going off on everyone right now. The same cannot be said of Kelly’s Saturday night opponent.

The Giants have a .146 ISO against right-handed pitching this month and a 28.1% strikeout rate. San Francisco has also struggled against Kelly throughout 2022. He’s faced the Giants four times, and his worst outing against them was a five-hit, two-run, seven-inning performance -- and that came directly after he gave up two runs on two hits over 6 1/3 in the start prior.

As for Arizona’s offense, they continue to experience success against right-handed pitching, posting a .184 ISO against them this month. Alex Cobb has been solid vs. the Diamondbacks this season -- and all-around this year, for that matter. But the Giants typically don’t provide him much support, which is why they’re 9-16 in his starts this season.

Cardinals at Dodgers
The wager: Total over 7.5 runs
Line: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Clayton Kershaw has been electric in 2022, but the Cardinals remain one of the best lineups against left-handed pitching. This month, they have a .266 ISO against lefties, and St. Louis also has Nolan Arenado, who has impressive career numbers against the future hall-of-famer.

Moreover, the over on Saturday’s game might only be 10-8 in Kershaw’s starts this season, but it’s 6-2 in his last eight. That’s largely been due to the other starter involved in those outings, and this instance isn’t much different. While Jordan Montgomery has been a solid addition to the Cardinals, he’s struggled in his last two outings against lineups less fearsome than the Dodgers. L.A. comes into this contest with the seventh-best ISO against lefties this month. Also, in four of Montgomery’s last five starts, eight runs or more have been scored.

SUNDAY

Pirates vs. Cubs
The wager: Total under 8.5 runs
Line: -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

If you’re looking for a money line pick here, the Pirates are where I lean. But, the total is more appealing because of the pitchers taking the mound and the handedness splits at play.

Luis Ortiz just shut down the Yankees. It was all for naught, but he’s still off to a strong start at the MLB level. He’ll see a Cubs lineup that’s striking out often and hitting for minimal power against righties on the road this month.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have hit righties better than most this month. However, a .158 ISO still isn’t an overpowering number. Especially when you consider Adrian Sampson’s recent form and how he’s handled the Pirates this season. Also, the under on Sunday’s total is 11-4-1 in Sampson’s starts this season.

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