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There are quite a few spots where offense can reign supreme this weekend and that’s where we’ll largely focus when assessing this weekend’s MLB games via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
SATURDAY
Astros at White Sox
The wager: Yordan Álvarez over 1.5 total bases
Line: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Álvarez is always worth a look against a right-handed pitcher when he’s trending -- although labeling what he’s done this month as a trend feels like an understatement. He has posted a .353 ISO and .569 wOBA throughout June. That’s been the result of a ton of hard contact (44.7 percent) and line drives (34 percent).
Álvarez has hit lefties well during this stretch, but the majority of his success has come against right-handers. Johnny Cueto has actually done very well against left-handed hitters this season. But he’s due for regression, given lefties only have a .258 BABIP against him despite posting a 37.5 percent hard-contact rate.
Cardinals at Red Sox
The wager: Dakota Hudson over 15.5 outs recorded
Line: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
This is a surprisingly low number for Hudson. He’s coming off three consecutive starts in which he’s logged seven innings. At the same time, this three-start stretch followed up a four-game stretch in which he only made it through five innings once and failed to log an out in the sixth. Still, the St. Louis right-hander has logged six-plus innings in six of his 12 starts this season.
The biggest issue for Hudson continues to be his walk total. He’s averaged 3.7 per nine innings to this point, elevating his pitch count start to start. However, he’s only logged a total of four walks over his last three starts -- a total he’s reached in three separate outings alone.
The Red Sox have been tough on right-handed pitchers, but this is one they’re unfamiliar with. Also, they don’t walk or strike out much against righties, which should help Hudson keep his pitch count down.
Padres at Rockies
The wager: Padres moneyline
Line: -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
The Rockies are much better at home, but they’re still a sub-.500 team there after knocking off the Padres, 10-4, on Friday. It’s not impossible for the team with the third-best record in baseball to lose back-to-back games to the last-place team from their own division, but it’s unlikely. On that premise alone, the Padres are a great moneyline play at -125.
Both Nick Martinez and Germán Márquez pitched in the recent series between these two teams in San Diego and thrived. But it’s always dicey when starting pitchers are facing the same team in back-to-back outings -- not to mention, this series is at Coors Field instead of the pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Still, Martinez is the more appealing arm to back because he’s done an outstanding job of limiting hard contact (19.6 percent) and the amount of line drives hit (18.6 percent) over his last seven starts. Márquez keeps the ball on the ground, but this Padres lineup has good numbers against him.
SUNDAY
Phillies at Nationals
The wager: Total over 9.5 runs
Line: -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
It’s generally good practice to fade Washington hitters against right-handed pitchers, but there’s been a trend with Zach Eflin that points toward Sunday’s game being an exception. The Philadelphia right-hander has put together some very strong outings this season, but not against teams within his division. He’s faced both the Marlins and Mets twice and he’s yet to hold either team to fewer than four runs. In each of those games, the over for Saturday’s game has hit.
Combine that with Jackson Terault taking the mound and this one could get ugly. The rookie right-hander just had a brutal welcome to the big leagues, giving up three long balls and seven runs over four innings vs. the Braves. Now, he has to face a Phillies lineup that’s third in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching this month.
Padres at Rockies
The wager: Total over 11.5 runs
Line: -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Antonio Senzatela gets hit. A lot. In just 47 innings of work, the right-hander has given up 75 hits this season. Although only three have been home runs, the Padres should get plenty of chances to do serious damage against him.
While the Padres rank ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitching since May 20, the Rockies continue to crush left-handers at home. They get a ton of balls airborne (38 percent ground-ball rate) and rank among the Top 10 in ISO and wOBA against lefties at home since May 20.
Blake Snell punched out seven and only gave up two runs when he saw the Rockies on June 12, but he also gave up six hits. Add in the fact Snell isn’t generating a ton of grounders and the Rockies are in a spot to go off.
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