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As we look at DraftKings Sportsbook while breaking down Tuesday’s full slate of night games, there are a couple of underdogs who are in spots to steal a win.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
Tigers at Red Sox
The wager: Tigers moneyline
Line: +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
The Red Sox survived the Tigers when they got to Rich Hill back in April, but Beau Brieske should prove to be a tougher matchup than Tyler Alexander. The Detroit rookie has been in a groove this month, giving up two runs over his 18 2/3 June innings. Seven of those frames came against Texas, but the other 11 2/3 were logged against the Blue Jays and Yankees, both of which have been top-five offenses against right-handed hitters this month. The Red Sox are top five in wOBA against right-handed pitching this month, but Brieske’s form and the fact Boston hasn’t seen him should play heavily into Detroit’s favor.
Blue Jays at White Sox
The wager: Blue Jays moneyline
Line: -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Getting the Blue Jays as just slight favorites is always an appealing play. Dylan Cease presents Toronto with a reasonably tough matchup, but this one should be more of a challenge for the Chicago right-hander than anyone. He’s all about the strikeouts, but the Blue Jays have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against righties this month. They also rank among the top six in ISO, wOBA, line-drive rate and hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching in June. And even if Cease does somehow rack up strikeouts, we’ve seen him give up plenty of runs in high-strikeout performances.
On the other side, I like getting Kevin Gausman after a rough start. He’s had two of those this month, but he also sandwiched in a quality start. He’ll have a good chance to log another on Tuesday, given his opponent isn’t making hard contact against righties -- which is why they’re one of three MLB teams with a sub-.100 ISO against right-handed pitching this month.
Mets at Astros
The wager: Total over 9 runs
Line: -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
The Astros may be 8-4 in José Urquidy starts this season, but the right-hander hasn’t been all that effective in 2022. He has a 4.99 ERA entering Tuesday, and his 4.82 FIP indicates that level of quality should maintain. Each of the last three teams Urquidy has faced ranks among the bottom 12 in wOBA against right-handed pitching this month, and he gave up at least three runs to each team. The Mets are on the opposite side of the spectrum, ranking 12th in wOBA and ISO against righties in June.
The Astros are even tougher on right-handed pitching, but they’ll see Trevor Williams, who’s been better than Urquidy throughout the season. Still, he’s had a few rough days throughout 2022, and it’d make sense for that to happen against a lineup ranked among the top 10 in ISO, wOBA and line-drive rate against righties this month. Also, Mets relievers have put together a 4.30 ERA and 4.22 FIP this month, so they haven’t exactly been lock down.
Cardinals at Brewers
The wager: Cardinals minus 1.5 runs
Line: +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Jack Flaherty’s 2022 debut didn’t exactly go as planned. Still, his pitch count has been increased to 75 after giving up four runs over three innings to the Pirates. He’ll get a chance to bounce back against a Milwaukee lineup that isn’t hitting right-handed pitching well this month.
The Brewers ranked among the bottom 10 against righties in line-drive rate, hard-contact rate, ISO and wOBA throughout June. Christian Yelich and Omar Narváez are the only Milwaukee hitters who’ve faced Flaherty 10-plus times, but Yelich is the only one with decent numbers against the St. Louis right-hander. However, a .891 OPS isn’t exactly overwhelming.
Now, the Cardinals haven’t been hitting left-handed pitching as well as they did at the start of the season. But their lineup still has one of the lowest ground-ball rates and the second-highest line-drive rate against righties this month. Instead of Aaron Ashby, the Cardinals will get a crack at Chi Chi González -- someone who can certainly help the Cardinals get back on track following their shutout loss.
D-backs at Padres
The wager: D-backs moneyline
Line: +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Any time Zac Gallen is on the mound, Arizona has a great chance at a win. Even though this start comes against a Padres team that’s hit right-handed pitching well this month, the D-backs could still very easily bounce back from Monday’s loss to steal this one.
The Padres rank among the top five in OPS and wOBA against righties in June. However, they’re also fresh off getting swept at Coors Field, a series in which San Diego failed to score more than four runs in any game. Also, while Manny Machado appears to be avoiding the injured list, he’s still dealing with a sprained ankle. Him playing doesn’t ruin Arizona’s chances, but pulling him from the lineup should help Gallen quite a bit.
As for Arizona’s hitters, they’re crushing left-handed pitching this month. They carry a .200 ISO and .398 wOBA in the month of June into their matchup against Sean Manaea, who just got roughed up by the Cubs. San Diego’s left-hander had been pitching well in June before his run-in with Chicago, but he hasn’t exactly been lights-out this season.
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