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With plenty of action coming up this weekend, we have several ways to bet on baseball. I’ll provide five plays I’m looking toward to help you sweat along with this weekend via the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@SBuchanan24) for updates.

SATURDAY

Nationals at Rangers
The wager: Game total over 8.5 runs
Line: -120 (bet $100 to win $83)

This game certainly has the potential to go over 8.5 runs with the pitching matchup on tap. Let’s start with the Nationals, who’ll be starting Josiah Gray. While his 3.95 ERA isn’t bad, his underlying stats are where it starts to get ugly. His xERA is over a half-run higher at 4.59 and his FIP, which measures what a pitcher's ERA would look like if you took away the defense, is at 5.27. That’s quite a difference. Gray also puts a lot of traffic on the basepaths, walking an average of 4.2 batters per nine innings. That’s notable because with men on base, Gray’s FIP jumps to 5.90. So, while his numbers on the surface don’t look all that bad, statistically, it could be a lot worse. I think the Rangers' strong offense can expose that.

For the Rangers, this will be a bullpen game. Matt Bush is expected to open and likely pitch one frame before departing. The bullpen hasn’t been too bad as of late and over the month of June has a 3.46 ERA and a 3.47 FIP. That said, they’ve logged a lot of innings this month, throwing 83 1/3, which is the eighth-highest mark in the league over that span. So, while they’ve been good, they haven’t exactly gotten a lot of rest. I’m under the firm belief that the Rangers will provide the bulk of the runs scored in this game, so the Nationals would only need a few off this bullpen.

Mets at Marlins
The wager: New York Mets team total runs over 4.5
Line: +105 (bet $100 to win $105)

Man, I love Trevor Rogers, but he’s really been struggling this season. After posting extremely strong numbers in 2021, Rogers now enters this game with a 5.83 ERA, a 5.07 xERA, a 4.89 FIP, and a 4.6 BB/9. He’s also been having trouble keeping the ball in the yard, as he’s allowed nine home runs. Last season, through 133 innings, Rogers allowed only six. He’s given up three more homers than last year in less than half the time. Miami has also been where Rogers has struggled the most. He's tossed 20 1/3 innings at home and has an 8.85 ERA, with 20 of the 38 total runs he’s allowed and six of the nine home runs.

Facing this Mets club that hits lefties well isn’t going to help his numbers. Rogers faced the Mets his last time out and allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits, but did strike out seven through five innings. That said, this Mets team currently is seventh in runs scored against lefties. I think they go over their 4.5 runs total this afternoon, which we’re getting at plus odds.

Blue Jays at Brewers
The wager: Yusei Kikuchi over 2.5 walks
Line: -105 (bet $100 to win $95)

I’m not usually someone who goes out of their way to bet a prop that includes walks, but I do feel strongly about this one. Kikuchi has really struggled with his command this season, issuing 34 free passes through 54 2/3 innings. That gives him a BB/9 of 5.6 on the season. Among starters with at least 50 innings pitched, that is the highest in the league! Kikuchi and Nationals starter Joan Adon are the only starters with a BB/9 over 5.0.

Going over 2.5 walks in a start is something Kikuchi has done many times this season. In fact, the over has hit in eight of the 13 starts he’s made. Think about that, he’s issued at least three walks in 61 percent of the games he’s started this season. While the Brewers have been struggling offensively, they are one of the more patient teams in the league against lefties, combining for a team BB percentage of 9.3, which ranks them ninth in the league.

Reds at Giants
The wager: Giants run line -1.5
Line: -115 (bet $100 to win $87)

Run line records can be quite fickle. I mean, if I asked you who the best run-line team in the league was, would your first guess be the Orioles? At least for them, it’s because they’re consistently losing by more at least two runs, thus making them a good run-line team. The Giants are just over .500 on the run line, going 36-34, but I do really like them tonight. They’ll face Reds starter Mike Minor, who is still in search of his first quality start of the season. Since being called up earlier this month, Minor has allowed 16 runs through 20 2/3 innings with at least four of them in three starts. Now, he’s tasked with taking on a Giants team that hits lefties well. They rank eighth in the league in runs scored and seventh in home runs against southpaws. I think the probability of gaining an early lead and winning this game by at least two runs is high.

SUNDAY

Red Sox at Guardians
The wager: Game total over 9 runs
Line: -115 (bet $100 to win $87)

Sunday should feature a lot of runs in this Sox and Guardians game. Expected to take the mound in this contest will be Rich Hill for the Red Sox and Aaron Civale for the Guardians. Civale, specifically, has been an over-machine when he takes the mound. In the eight starts he’s made, the over has gone 7-1. That’ll usually happen when you allow at least four runs in four of those eight starts. To be fair, he's due for some positive regression, as his 7.25 ERA is miles away from his xERA of 4.90. That said, I don’t think that’ll even out just yet against the Red Sox.

The Guardians will face Hill, who has only seen the over go 4-7-2 in 13 starts. That said, the Guardians are one of the toughest teams to strike out and Hill doesn’t generate many to begin with. Hill allows a lot of fly balls (42.2 percent) and is not missing many bats, so the Guardians should be making plenty of contact in this game. Add that into the mix with a Sox bullpen that continues to struggle and I think we have ourselves an over-nine-run game.

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