5 wise wagers for this weekend's games
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There are quite a few favorable matchups for hitters on the first Saturday of June, so we’ll focus on some of those as we look at how to approach DraftKings Sportsbook.
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SATURDAY
Peña has crushed left-handed pitching this season, especially since the start of May. The rookie has a 40 percent hard-contact rate against lefties since May 1, which has led to a .417 ISO and .543 wOBA. Of the four home runs Peña has hit since the start of May, three came against left-handed pitching.
Another long ball could easily come against Kris Bubic (Peña is +600 to hit a home run on Saturday). Kansas City’s left-hander has given up five doubles and two home runs to righty bats this season. More importantly, right-handed hitters have a 35.1 percent hard-contact rate, 32.4 percent line-drive rate and 32.4 percent fly-ball rate against Bubic this season.
San Diego just had a shocking offensive outburst on Friday against Corbin Burnes. That won’t necessarily translate to Saturday, but they do find themselves in a much more favorable matchup against Aaron Ashby.
The Padres recently got their first crack at the Milwaukee left-hander and he had himself a pretty solid showing. He managed to scatter four hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball -- which was unearned. But now that they have a feel for Ashby, the advantage shifts in the favor of the San Diego offense that’s ranked eighth in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching. If you’re looking for a hitter prop from this game, Manny Machado over 1.5 total bases is the best option at +120.
Moreover, the Brewers aren’t all that great against left-handed pitching. They also haven’t gotten a look at MacKenzie Gore yet -- and he’s been very tough. The San Diego rookie is far from an ideal matchup for a Milwaukee lineup that’s bottom 10 in OPS and ISO against left-handers. Not to mention, the Brewers have a 24.2 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, which is the sixth-highest mark in baseball. Gore’s strikeout prop is set at 5.5, so the over (+125) is another good bet available from this game.
It doesn’t take much for Harper to go off against right-handed pitching. He’s got a 41.3 percent hard-hit rate against righties this year and he doesn’t hit the ball on the ground against them much. Michael Lorenzen does generate a decent amount of groundouts from lefty bats, but they also have a .390 wOBA against him. Not exactly intimidating for a lefty bat that’s hit nine of his 12 home runs and 11 of his 18 doubles against right-handed pitching this season.
SUNDAY
Luis Castillo appears to be back and the Reds have been rolling after their tough start to 2022. The Nationals have the second-lowest hard-contact rate, third-highest soft-contact rate and highest ground-ball rate against right-handed pitching this season. That all very much plays into Castillo’s hand.
Now, Cincy’s batters haven’t crushed left-handed pitching this season, but Patrick Corbin is someone most opposing bats pick on. He’s given up six home runs, four doubles and three triples over his last six starts. Hitters also posted a 40.3 percent hard-contact rate against Corbin during that stretch.
It’s not exactly a secret Martín Pérez has been dominant this season. After giving up six earned runs (plus one unearned) in his first eight innings of 2022, the Texas left-hander has only surrendered four earned runs (plus three unearned) over his last 55 1/3 innings. He’s faced some tough lineups throughout that stretch, but he has cruised against everyone. The Mariners have been middling against left-handed pitching and have the second-highest soft-contact rate against lefties, so they shouldn’t pose much of a problem for Pérez. Check Seattle’s first five innings total when it goes live on DraftKings Sportsbook. If it’s set at 1.5, the under is another good bet.
George Kirby has been a bit hit or miss to start his MLB career, but he’s coming off a strong bounce-back start vs. Baltimore. He’s also racked up 17 strikeouts over his last 11 innings and the Rangers lineup he’ll face Sunday has a 23.5 percent strikeout rate against righties this season. More importantly, Texas ranks among the bottom six in baseball in ISO, wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitching.
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