Here are 5 wise wagers for October 4

October 4th, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

The regular season is almost at its end, but Tuesday still features a full slate of games to attack via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Cardinals at Pirates
The wager: Cardinals moneyline 
Line: -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

The Cardinals have nothing to play for at the moment, but it’s hard to imagine them losing back-to-back games vs. the Pirates in their final series of the season. More importantly, this is an important outing for Dakota Hudson.

The right-hander was optioned to Triple-A Memphis after his rough Aug. 30 outing. He made his return to the bigs on Sept. 17 and gave up just one unearned run on seven hits and two walks vs. the Reds. He followed that up with a strong relief appearance vs. the Dodgers, and that’s likely a role he’ll take on in the playoffs. But, Hudson’s spot on the playoff roster isn’t set in stone. Taking advantage of a meeting with a Pirates lineup that has a so-so ISO against righties at home since Sept. 1 (.152) could go a long way.

Blue Jays at Orioles
The wager: First Five Innings Total over 3.5 runs
Line: -125 (Bet $125 to win $100)

Weather could be a bit of a nuisance for this game, so it’s best to cut our exposure down a bit. It also helps that neither starting pitcher usually goes deep in games, yet they tend to give up a lot of runs.

Mitch White has given up three runs in each of his last six outings but only logged more than five innings once during that span. Mike Baumann has given up two runs over four innings in each of his last two starts. He’s only made one other MLB start this season, during which he gave up three runs over five innings.

On top of all that, these two lineups have been among the best against right-handed pitching. They’re both among the top six in ISO and bottom 10 in strikeout rate against righties since Sept. 1.

D-backs at Brewers
The wager: Zac Gallen over 6.5 strikeouts
Line: -130 (Bet $130 to win $100)

The Brewers continue to strike out often against right-handed pitching, posting a 25.1% strikeout rate against them since Sept. 1. That number jumps up to 26.5% when focusing solely on home games.

Gallen has played a part in Milwaukee having one of the higher strikeout rates against righties during this time frame, punching out seven when Arizona hosted the Brewers on Sept. 4. Although Gallen has only gone over this number in 12 of his 30 starts this season, six of those outings have come in his last 10 starts.

Astros vs. Phillies
The wager: José Altuve over 0.5 total bases
Line: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

Getting this low number at even-money indicates there’s doubt about how many at-bats Altuve will get on Tuesday. But with the way today’s starting pitchers are handled, he’ll probably only see Ranger Suárez twice anyway -- and that’s the matchup we’re focusing on with this play.

Altuve has dismantled left-handed pitching all season, hitting .331 with a .317 ISO and 14.4% strikeout rate against them. Since Sept. 1, he has a .393 average with a .179 ISO against left-handers. What’s just as important for this play: Altuve has a 5.9% K rate against lefties during that same time frame. Suárez has just a 19.8% strikeout rate against right-handed bats this year.

Angels at Athletics
The wager: Michael Lorenzen over 4.5 strikeouts
Line: -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Lorenzen really seemed to put things together last month, posting a 3.05 ERA and 27.7% strikeout rate across four starts. Now, his 4.37 FIP might seem concerning, but his 3.62 xFIP indicates more of the same should be expected from the L.A. right-hander.

More importantly, Lorenzen really turned things around against left-handed hitting last month. Only two of the 39 lefty bats he faced logged an extra-base hit. While his .158 BABIP can’t maintain, Lorenzen’s 38.5% strikeout rate against lefties in September was a great sign -- especially vs. Oakland.

The A’s are likely to trot out their lefty-loaded lineup against the right-hander on Tuesday. But that group hasn’t done too much for Oakland of late. The A’s have a 26.2% strikeout rate and .139 ISO against right-handed pitching since Sept. 1.

Taking the Angels on the run line (+125) is also worth consideration, as is MIke Trout over 1.5 total bases (+100).

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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