Astros come from behind for 5th straight win

June 5th, 2019

SEATTLE -- The Astros were down on Tuesday night, albeit briefly. They were never out.

After Reymin Guduan gave up a bases-clearing, go-ahead triple to pinch-hitter Daniel Vogelbach in the sixth, the new-look Astros immediately answered, with a smorgasbord of small ball that led to an 11-5 win.

According to FanGraphs' win probability projections, which are produced in real time, Houston had just a 26.2 percent chance of winning after Vogelbach’s triple. Here’s how the Astros sparked a runaway rally in the seventh inning, told by those who orchestrated it.

Burners on the basepaths set up to score

Tyler White led off with a pinch-hit walk against Mariners reliever Brandon Brennan, then was replaced by pinch-runner Myles Straw, the speedster who was recalled from Triple-A Round Rock last week and has already made his presence felt by helping the Astros to a win in Oakland on Sunday.

Jake Marisnick, playing center field and hitting ninth regularly with George Springer sidelined, was the next hitter, and he roped a 1-1 sinker that bled from the zone in on his hands and dropped it into left field.

“It was inside, and I was just trying to get it up there,” Marisnick said. “[Brennan] has got good movement on that pitch. He jammed it in there. I was just able to get it up and in the air.”

Marisnick leads all qualified Astros with a 29.4 average sprint speed, per Statcast, and Straw has crossed the 30.0-plus elite threshold multiple times in his brief MLB stint already. So with their two fastest runners on and no outs, FanGraphs projected that the Astros had a 47.4 percent chance to win.

“Nothing is ever guaranteed at first base, but when Jake got on, first and second and it rolls over to the top of the order, you have all the confidence in the world,” Straw said. “You always like first and second at the top of the order. We have [Derek] Fisher, [Alex] Bregman and [Michael] Brantley. Just being at second base, I thought there was a really high chance of tying the game at that point.”

Fisher delivers hitting leadoff

Fisher was called up from Triple-A Round Rock last week with Straw and has been entrusted to hit leadoff in each of his past six games. His chipped grounder on a 2-2 sinker past a diving Shed Long at second base not only tied the game by scoring Shaw from second, but he also set himself up for a critical steal by moving Marisnick to third.

The Mariners, however, played in anticipation. Brennan threw a rare pitchout to Omar Narvaez who hurled to second to nab Fisher before Astros manager AJ Hinch intervened to challenge.

"It was obviously a great call at a great time for them,” Fisher said of the pitchout. “Fortunately, it worked out for us. I was just trying to find a good time to go, and my vision, it was a good time to go, but they threw the pitchout, and thankfully I got there before the tag.”

FanGraphs projected that the Astros had a 73.5 percent chance to win after Fisher’s steal.

“Obviously, as we get healthy, we'll have to navigate [the leadoff spot], but I like how hard Fish is hitting the ball and how consistent his approach has been,” Hinch said. “He's really taken it upon himself to be a good leadoff hitter ... He knows that's not forever with Springer coming back eventually, but it's a good look for him.”

Marisnick hesitates

With runners in scoring position and still no outs, Marisnick said he didn’t want to spoil his chance to score. So when Bregman chipped a short grounder to Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, Marisnick initially held before racing home to score the go-ahead run when Seager conceded a throw to first.

“I kind of had to wait to see if it was hit right at the pitcher or not, so that was kind of a quick little hesitation and then was able to kind of see [Seager] off to the side that he was going to have to make a pretty difficult play to get me,” Marisnick said.

The Astros also suggest that their speed has imposing effects on opposing defenders, such as in that play. 

“I think the defenders, but I think more importantly, the pitchers, worry about it too,” Straw said of the Astros’ speed. “You can tell, Fisher or I or Marisnick, the faster guys get on, [the pitchers] kind of worry. I feel like sometimes they even take their focus off the batter, which is also big. Because if you miss a pitch to one of the guys in this lineup, they're going to do damage.”

Adding on in the eighth

Yuli Gurriel added an insurance run with a sacrifice fly that scored Fisher before the Mariners stopped the bleeding in the seventh, but the Astros added four runs in the eighth from each of their first four hitters against lefty Jesse Biddle, including Straw and Marisnick.

Even without their MVP-caliber core of Jose Altuve, Springer and Carlos Correa, the Astros feel that they have the depth to withstand such attrition and alter their game plan based on personnel. Houston picked up its fifth straight win on their seven-game road trip and sits atop the American League West by 10 games.

“The Houston Astros are winning games in a little bit of a different way right now, and we're having a lot of fun doing it,” Fisher said.