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Corey Kluber is back in action, and one bet DraftKings Sportsbook offered on him for Monday jumped out right away. But that’s the lone Yankees pick I have. Here’s what I like on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s MLB slate of games.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
It may be too little, too late for the Red Sox, but their hitters have shown a lot of life recently. Throughout their last three series, Boston hitters have scratched across six-plus runs in six of nine games. Much of their recent success has come against right-handed pitching, which the Red Sox have hit well throughout much of 2021.
Also, a few series before their recent run of success against Texas, Minnesota and Cleveland, the Red Sox got a look at Louis Patiño, the right-hander Boston will face on Monday. Although the Rays won that Aug. 10 meeting, the Red Sox still scratched across four against the righty — all of which came in the first four innings. Patiño has had some good starts throughout the season, but his outing vs. Boston isn’t exactly an outlier when you look at his performances throughout 2021.
While the over on Boston’s team total (3.5) is also appealing, I’d rather not get mixed up with Tampa’s bullpen if possible — even though the Red Sox have shown they can hit the over on Monday’s total against Patiño alone.
Kluber will have a cap of 65-75 pitches in his return Monday night. He threw 60 pitches in his recent rehab start, so it’s a small bump. Regardless of whether he’s on the lower or higher end of the 65-75 range, Kluber doesn’t need a high pitch count to hit the over on Monday’s strikeout prop.
Strikeouts have never been an issue for Kluber. Even when he struggled in the first month of the season, he averaged at least one K per inning in all but one outing. Whether his pitch count stays at 60 or bumps up to 80, that’s more than enough room for him to go four frames.
Perhaps the most important factor in all of this is the lineup Kluber will face on Monday. Shohei Ohtani and company have the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Also, their 2021 OPS, ISO and wOBA against righties are all middling at best. And recently, they’ve been struggling a bit more against righties.
Lastly, this Angels lineup has gone after pitches out of the zone quite a bit this month. They’re making contact on those offerings at a good rate, but their heightened aggressiveness plays into the hand of a pitcher like Kluber who was generating a lot of swing and misses on pitches out of the zone before his trip to the IL.
If you look at Corbin Burnes’ run log since June 25, it looks like binary code. There have been a few glitches in the Matrix, but the Milwaukee right-hander has been very difficult on opposing lineups. Of course, this includes this Giants group he will face Monday night.
San Francisco last saw Burnes on Aug. 6. The righty lasted seven innings that night, giving up just one run on a home run while scattering a walk and three more hits. That game was the start of a rough stretch for a Giants lineup that’s otherwise hit right-handers well all season. But since San Francisco hitters last saw Burnes, multiple opposing right-handed starters have managed to limit their run production.
All the while, Burnes has posted the 10th-lowest hard-hit rate (23.5%) among all starters in the month of August. He has the second-lowest hard-hit rate (24.9%) among qualified starters this season, trailing only Zach Wheeler. Furthermore, Burnes has the third-highest soft-contact rate among starters in August — oddly enough, it’s also 23.5%.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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