Inbox: Best prospects in AFL history?

October 14th, 2021

Happy Arizona Fall League Opening Day to everyone! I always say my two favorite baseball events are the College World Series and the AFL, and I missed them both when they didn't happen in 2020.

On the first day of Fall League play this year, we got to see two of the game's best lefty pitching prospects (MacKenzie Gore of the Padres, Asa Lacy of the Royals) take the mound, 2020 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson tag Gore for a two-run double and fellow first-rounders Brett Baty (Mets) and Bryson Stott (Phillies) both reach base five times in five plate appearances.

The next six weeks are going to be fun.

Who is a player you saw go off in the AFL you were sure was destined for greatness but never panned out? And do you have a favorite of one who did use the time in Arizona as a springboard to stardom?
-- Jonathan M., Pittsburgh

I'm going to limit my answer to my time at MLB.com, which began in September 2013. During my more than two decades at Baseball America, most of my fall was devoted to Draft Report Cards and the Prospect Handbook, so I didn't see nearly as much of the AFL as I do now.

There are several players who have used the Fall League as a launching pad to stardom in the last eight years, and three who immediately jump to mind are Kris Bryant (2013), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2017) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2018).

Bryant won the NCAA Division I and AFL home run crowns in the same year, then led the Minors in homers in 2014 before winning a Rookie of the Year award in 2015 and a World Series ring and MVP award in 2016. Acuña's tools rank with Byron Buxton's as the best I've seen in Arizona, while Guerrero hit the ball harder than anyone I've watched there. Both were in the big leagues the next season as 20-year-olds, with Acuña earning Rookie of the Year honors.

His career is far from over, but based on his Fall League performance, I would have thought Forrest Whitley would have been ensconced in the front of the Astros rotation for a while by now. He topped the AFL in strikeouts in both 2018 and 2019 and he looked very much like a frontline starter when I saw him in four or five outings over those two autumns. But he has yet to pitch in the Majors and missed all of this season following Tommy John surgery.

How would you compare Wander Franco's postseason to that of previous rookies in the postseason?

-- @StevieDAles97

We also tackled this question in the latest Pipeline Podcast, where I tabbed Franco as a sleeper MVP pick for 2022, when he'll play his first full big league season at age 21. Though the Rays got upset by the Red Sox in the American League Division Series, he starred by batting .368/.368/.789 with a pair of homers in four games.

I ranked the best rookie postseasons last year, putting a heavy emphasis on players who led their teams to championships. Franco didn't do that and played in just four contests, so he wouldn't crack that list. It still was an impressive performance, with his 1.158 OPS ranking 15th all time among rookies with 15 or more plate appearances. The 14 players ahead of him had an average age of 24, and the only player younger than the 20-year-old Franco was Andruw Jones (1996 Braves) at 19.

Jim, who is going to be the next Dodgers prospect to make an impact?
-- @WAWA_EA

The Dodgers have several candidates among their five Top 100 Prospects and their seemingly never-ending supply of up-and-coming youngsters. While catcher Diego Cartaya is our highest-rated prospect in the system, right-hander Bobby Miller is poised to be the next homegrown product to make an impact in Los Angeles, probably sometime in the latter half of the 2022 season.

The 29th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft out of Louisville, Miller has a mid-90s fastball that he maintains into the late innings, a slider that grades at well-above-average at its best, and a curveball, cutter and changeup that all can miss bats as well. In his pro debut this summer, he logged a 2.40 ERA, .192 opponent average and 70/13 K/BB ratio in 56 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A.

How close is Yankees outfielder Everson Pereira to being considered a Top 100 Prospect? He has the pedigree as a former top international signing with loud tools and had a breakout year in 2021 that culminated in him hitting 14 homers in 27 games as a 20-year-old in High-A.

-- Matthew S., Miami

Pereira definitely has that kind of upside, as he's a gifted hitter with developing power and patience, solid speed and arm strength and fine instincts in center field. Signed for $1.5 million out of Venezuela in 2017, he scuffled with aggressive assignments in his first two full pro seasons but started to take off this year at age 20.

Pereira's tools and track record aren't quite big enough for the Top 100 at this point, as he has played just 108 pro games and only 46 in full-season ball. But if he proves that his power is as real as it looked when he went deep 14 times in his final 23 contests this year, he'll force his way onto the list in the near future.