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Sunday Night Baseball features a matchup between two playoff teams from last year. However, they’ve gotten off to far different starts in 2022.
On one side stands the Yankees, who have been undoubtedly the best team in baseball. They’ve won 29 of their first 40 games, which puts them on pace for more than 117 wins. They’ll likely fall off that pace at some point, but this team is more than capable of winning more than 100 games this season. They boast arguably the best pitching staff and offense in the entire American League.
On the other side stands the White Sox. They ran away with a weak AL Central in 2021, but they’re just 19-20 through their first 39 games. That leaves them 4 1/2 games behind the Twins in the current standings, and they’re just a half-game above the Guardians.
Can the White Sox turn things around on Sunday? Let’s dive into some of my favorite wagers for Sunday Night Baseball on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox First Five Innings ML (+145)
Sunday Night Baseball is going to be a bit different than usual this week. The Yankees and White Sox will square off twice on Sunday: Once at 3:05 p.m. ET and again on Sunday Night Baseball. That limits the number of props that are currently available for the second game. The lineups for both teams won’t be in until the conclusion of Game 1 -- and things like bullpen usage and the starting lineup from the first game could have an impact on Game 2.
With that in mind, I’m going to focus more on the early part of the game of Game 2. We know that Luis Severino will get the ball for the Yankees, while Michael Kopech will take the hill for the White Sox. That’s an excellent pitching matchup.
However, the White Sox seem to have a bit of an edge. Kopech was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball -- and he’s made the leap in 2022. He’s pitched to a 1.54 ERA and a 2.75 FIP through his first seven outings. He has gotten a bit lucky -- and he’s yet to allow a single home run this season -- so he does seem due for a bit of regression on balls in play. However, Kopech could make up for it with an increased strikeout rate. He pitched to an elite 14.79 K/9 as a starter last year but has posted a K/9 of just 8.49 this season.
On the other side, Severino has been good but not great in his return to the rotation. He pitched just 18 innings from 2019-21 due to injuries, so the Yankees have been very careful with his workload. He’s pitched more than five innings in just two of seven starts and he’s posted a 3.63 ERA and a 3.90 FIP through his first 34 2/3 innings.
The Yankees clearly have an edge from an offensive perspective, but Kopech has the potential to quiet their bats. I’ll take my chances with the Sox moneyline for the first five innings at +145.
Chicago White Sox Over 1.5 Runs First Five Innings (-130)
This bet goes hand-in-hand with the previous one. If the White Sox are going to have a lead after the first five innings, they’re going to need to score some runs.
The White Sox offense has been a major disappointment to start the year. They’re just 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, so Severino will be a tough test. However, there are some reasons to believe in positive regression moving forward.
For starters, the White Sox were an excellent offensive team last year. They ranked sixth in wRC+ against right-handers in 2021 and their lineup features basically the same core. They also finished sixth in baseball in runs per game in 2021.
Additionally, the White Sox are also making strong contact. They’ve cut their strikeout rate down to just 20.2% this season, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. They also rank third in hard-hit rate and fourth in average exit velocity. Overall, this team puts the ball in play often, and their quality of contact is among the best in the league. That’s an excellent formula for scoring runs. I like the idea of buying low on their offense while I can.
Over 0.5 runs in the first inning (-115)
Let’s also take a sprinkle on over 0.5 runs in the first inning. It’s no secret that scoring has been down this season. Teams are averaging just 4.17 runs per game, which is down from an average of 4.53 last season. We’re on pace for the third straight season with a decrease in scoring -- and we haven’t seen a mark this low since 2014.
Still, the first inning is usually a good place to look for a run or two. From 1921-2018, the first inning was the highest scoring inning of the season 85 times. That’s nearly 87%.
It’s the only inning in which both teams are guaranteed to have the top of the lineup at the dish, which gives both the opportunity to get their best run-producers to the plate with men on base. Anecdotally, it also can take pitchers an inning or two to “get in a groove.” It’s often said that when you’re facing a top pitcher, your best chance of getting to him is early. If you let him settle in, it could be a long day for your offense.
Both of these squads have been average in terms of first-inning scoring this season, but they’ve each scored at least one run in two of their past three games. Kopech and Severino have both been excellent in the first inning this season -- they’ve allowed just two total runs -- but I think there’s enough here to give the over some value.
Chicago White Sox ML & Over 8.5 Runs (+320)
Let’s wrap things up with my boldest wager on the card. I’ve already built a case for Kopech and the White Sox offense, so why not take the plunge on both? If you’re willing to bet a parlay with the White Sox moneyline and the over on 8.5 runs, you’re rewarded with a potential +320 payout.
The dream scenario for this bet would be a Yankees win in Game 1 of the doubleheader in which they use a few of their premier relievers. The Yankees have as many top relievers as any team in baseball, but even they have their limits. If guys like Clay Holmes, Michael King or Aroldis Chapman make an appearance in Game 1, they will likely be unavailable in Game 2. All three of those pitchers have been dominant this season, so that would be a huge deal.
Make sure to monitor what happens in the first game on Sunday. Depending on how things play out, there could be even more value than expected in the betting market.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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