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Two solid games will be taking place on Apple TV+ Friday night, featuring the Padres vs. Braves and Cubs vs. D-backs. To further enhance the experience, I’ll provide some bets for each game you can sweat as you watch along.
As always, you can follow me on Twitter for more betting content @SBuchanan24.
Braves at Padres
The wager: Padres Moneyline
Line: +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
I love taking the Padres as underdogs in this game against Atlanta’s starter Max Fried. Don’t get me wrong, Fried has been excellent this season and is on a five-game streak of allowing no more than two earned runs in a start. His stellar streak is backed up by his advanced numbers, as well. Fried enters this game with a 2.68 ERA and a 3.11 xERA. His 2.61 FIP is the cherry on top, showcasing what’s been a strong 2022. So, why the love for the Padres at +145? Quite frankly, to no fault of Fried’s, this is likely the toughest matchup for him to date.
One of my favorite offensive stats I like to look at for teams is wRC+, or Weighted Runs Created Plus. This stat puts a weighted outcome for a hitter as it relates to run created. A league average number for this stat is set at 100. Of the teams Fried has faced, ALL of them are below league average. Two of those starts, against the Nationals and Reds, those teams are ranked in the bottom five. Now, he'll take on the Padres, who are ninth in wRC+ against lefties at 110. This team is patient, and they don’t strike out much against lefties either. With these types of numbers, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fried struggles in this matchup, which has me taking the Padres at +145.
Braves at Padres
The wager: Manny Machado o1.5 bases
Line: +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Currently the front runner for the National League MVP, Machado has been on a tear this season. He enters this game slashing .383/.460/.625 with seven home runs, 22 RBIs, 27 runs scored and six stolen bases. For this bet to win, Machado needs to have at least two total bases. This is something Machado has done in 17 of the 32 games he’s played in, which is not surprising seeing how much power he’s been hitting for. While Fried has been excellent at keeping the ball on the ground, evidenced by his 52.5 percent ground-ball rate, Machado is simply locked in at the plate. Getting plus money on this play is what drew my attention and one I’ll be taking for Machado to continue his hot streak.
Cubs at D-backs
The wager: Both teams to score 3+ runs
Line: -135 (bet $100 to win $74)
This line has been moving, so I like getting this sooner rather than later. To win this, both the Cubs and D-backs need to score at least three runs. I like this play a lot, as this is something both teams have been doing often. The Cubs have reached three runs in three straight games, while the D-backs have done it in four. The pitching matchup tonight of Drew Smyly and Zach Davies features two pitchers who are generating strikeouts and thus will give up a lot of contact.
Smyly has struggled with home runs throughout his career, and that is no different now. In his last five starts, Smyly has seen five leave the ballpark, giving him a 1.9 HR/9 through 23 2/3 innings. His strikeout numbers are also way down, as his 6.4 K/9 is currently a new career low. As for Davies, he has only gone more than five innings once (6 1/3 on May 7), which is great for this bet. Arizona’s bullpen has been one of the worst in the league, especially in the month of May. Thus far, they’ve put together a team 8.07 ERA with a 1.6 HR/9. That’s great to hear if we need the Cubs to score some runs.
Cubs at D-backs
The wager: Jordan Luplow o1.5 bases +120
Line: +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Luplow should draw the start tonight with the lefty taking the mound for the Cubs. He’s not someone who has great numbers against righties, but lefties, a much different story. Take his 2022 numbers against southpaws for example. He’s had 14 at-bats with four hits. Of those hits, three have gone for home runs. This is a perfect match for someone like Luplow to grab an extra-base hit against Smyly. When Luplow has been in the D-Backs lineup, he’s primarily hit second, which gives him at least a couple of cracks against Smyly. If you want to take this a step further, you can also bet Luplow to hit a home run, which is at +330. I wouldn’t use your normal betting amount on that but a small play is certainly viable. As mentioned, Smyly is giving up a ton of contact currently and not missing bats, so with the amount of power Luplow has against lefties, I like taking him over 1.5 bases.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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