Breaking down the Blake Snell deal from all angles

November 27th, 2024

The defending World Series champions are improving their roster in a big way. The Dodgers and two-time Cy Young Award winner agreed on a five-year, $182 million contract Tuesday, multiple sources told MLB.com.

Snell, 31, was a free agent for the second straight offseason after opting out of the final year on his two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants. The left-hander didn’t sign his deal with San Francisco until March 19, but he was clearly determined to resolve his second run at free agency much more quickly, becoming one of the first free agents to reach a deal this time.

Lacking time for a proper build-up to the season, Snell struggled early on in 2024, recording a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts and making two trips to the injured list with lower-body ailments. However, Snell was able to recapture his ace form before long, pitching to an incredible 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts -- including a no-hitter on Aug. 2. It was reminiscent of the way he concluded the 2023 campaign with the Padres, posting a 1.20 ERA over his final 23 starts en route to the National League Cy Young Award.

Snell also won the 2018 American League Cy Young Award as a member of the Rays. He owns a 3.19 ERA with an 11.2 K/9 over nine seasons for Tampa Bay, San Diego and San Francisco.

Snell by the numbers

2024: 20 GS, 104 IP, 3.12 ERA (124 ERA+), 2.43 FIP, 3.1 fWAR
Career: 211 GS, 1096.2 IP, 3.19 ERA (128 ERA+), 3.35 FIP, 24.5 fWAR

Here is a breakdown of this move from all angles, via MLB.com experts.

What this means for the Dodgers
Via Dodgers beat writer Juan Toribio

The Dodgers’ priority this winter was to add an ace to their starting rotation, and they identified Snell as their top target. The Dodgers previously pursued Snell before he signed with the Giants in March and again prior to the Trade Deadline as San Francisco fell out of postseason contention. They finally got their man on Tuesday.

Snell joins a starting rotation that will feature Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers are looking to add another starter this winter, with Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki among the many targets. It’s a starting rotation that is expected to be much improved from last season.

By joining Los Angeles, Snell is reunited with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who was the executive vice president of baseball operations for the Rays when the lefty was drafted in the first round by Tampa Bay in 2011. MORE >

What this means for the Giants
Via reporter Thomas Harrigan

The loss of Snell -- to the rival Dodgers, no less -- is a big blow to a San Francisco club that lacks star power and is facing a lot of rotation uncertainty behind durable ace Logan Webb. Internally, former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who returned from Tommy John surgery to record a 4.70 ERA with 43 strikeouts over 30 2/3 innings in 2024, will be counted on to step up in Snell's absence. The Giants could also look to the free-agent market to find a replacement for Snell.

Hot Stove implications
Via senior national reporter Mark Feinsand

The Snell signing could have a domino effect on the rest of the starting pitching market.

According to sources, the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles were all in on Snell prior to his decision to sign with the Dodgers, leaving the three AL East clubs to continue their search for pitching. The Red Sox and Yankees are believed to be seeking a left-handed starter, which could ultimately mean a bidding war between the rivals for Max Fried. The Orioles are facing the potential loss of ace Corbin Burnes, who is considered to be the top free-agent starter available. The Giants, who now must replace Snell in their rotation, are believed to have significant interest in Burnes. The O's, meanwhile, could get involved in the Fried sweepstakes or pursue other arms including Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi or Walker Buehler.

There's also the trade market, where White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet can likely be had for the right price. MORE >

Diving deep
Via analyst Mike Petriello

It may seem like the Dodgers adding Snell is a case of the wildly rich getting wildly richer, but do remember that they won the World Series despite a barely functional rotation – no disrespect intended to Ben Casparius, but you do not really want World Series games started by Ben Casparius – and with Flaherty and Buehler off to free agency, and every returning starter coming off some sort of injury (or, in Bobby Miller’s case, unexplainable ineffectiveness), last year’s 20th-best rotation badly needed help.

So far as what Snell offers, it’s no mystery. He’s probably not going to throw as many innings as you want (he’s topped 130 innings just twice in nine seasons), but the innings he does throw are going to be extremely effective. Over the last three years, 216 starters have thrown 2,000 pitches, and Snell ranks first in batting average and second (to Paul Skenes) in slugging, tied-fifth in strikeout rate, and so he’s sixth overall in wOBA, an OPS-like metric. He’s really good, is the point, even if far too many walks and nibbling around the zone drives up the pitch count and prevents those deeper outings.

Of course, “starters going deep” isn’t exactly in vogue any longer, so this might not matter to the Dodgers. What Snell offers is excellent fastball velocity (95.9 mph, fourth-hardest among lefty starters) and three outstanding swing-and-miss pitches, as his changeup, slider, and curve all had whiff rates above 40%. There were a handful of pitchers (min. 150 pitches of that type) who had two pitches like that last year, like Griffin Jax’s sweeper and changeup. Snell was the only one with three. So long as you can live with the five-inning starts, the occasional inconsistency, and the near-refusal to just throw strikes -- it’s fair to say he’s more entertaining to look at on the stat sheet than to actually view on the mound -- it’s hard to find a more effective per-pitch starter than Snell.

Stat to know
Via MLB.com research staff

24.2%: That was the difference between Snell’s strikeout rate (34.7%) and walk rate (10.5%) last season, the seventh-largest gap in MLB (minimum 100 innings pitched) and an improvement of six percentage points from the 18.2% mark he posted during his 2023 Cy Young season. Snell was still a bit wild in 2024 (3.8 BB/9), but he shaved 2.8 points off his walk rate from the previous year while adding 3.2 points to his strikeout rate.