Recapping Toronto's 2020 Draft, next moves

June 12th, 2020

TORONTO -- An MLB Draft class takes years to fully grade and analyze, given the long development curve through the Minor Leagues, but the Blue Jays couldn’t be happier with how their 2020 Draft opened on Wednesday.

Toronto landed shortstop Austin Martin out of Vanderbilt with the No. 5 pick, which surprised many, including the Blue Jays. Martin was ranked as the No. 2 prospect in the class by MLB Pipeline, which called him this Draft’s “best pure hitter,” leaving first-year director of amateur scouting Shane Farrell “ecstatic.”

The club continued to add value in the second round with right-hander CJ Van Eyk out of Florida State, who was ranked as the No. 39 prospect in the class and was thought to have a chance to sneak into the first round. The Blue Jays then rounded out their class with Jacksonville right-hander Trent Palmer in the third, Loyola Marymount right-hander Nick Frasso in the fourth and Louisville outfielder Zach Britton in the fifth.

Now what?
The signing deadline this year is Aug. 1.

If a club exceeds its assigned pool, it faces a penalty. Teams that outspend their allotment by zero to five percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than five and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.

In eight years with these rules, teams have exceeded their allotment a total of 149 times, but never by more than five percent. Twenty-one of the 30 teams outspent their pool last year.

The Blue Jays are expected to be active in their pursuit of non-drafted free agents, with the signing window opening at 9 a.m. ET on Saturday.

The club is also confident that it will be able to sign all five draftees with its bonus pool of $9,716,500, though it’s possible the Blue Jays will need to go over slot to lock up Martin, who is advised by Scott Boras, as he was projected to go higher than fifth.

Here are the assigned values for each of the Blue Jays' picks
Martin (Round 1, Pick 5) -- $6,180,700
Van Eyk (Round 2, Pick 42) -- $1,771,100
Palmer (Round 3, Pick 77) -- $805,600
Frasso (Round 4, Pick 106) -- $549,000
Britton (Round 5, Pick 136) -- $410,100

Trend wrap
Toronto sandwiched three right-handed pitchers between two position players, with all five being college juniors. Landing Martin in Round 1 could have impacted the Blue Jays' decisions in Rounds 3 and 5, where they may be able to save bonus money on deals with Palmer and Britton.

Entering this Draft, Toronto was known for targeting big, strong right-handers in the model of No. 1 prospect Nate Pearson or 2019 first-rounder Alek Manoah. Van Eyk doesn’t fit that at 6-foot-1, 198 pounds, but his raw stuff is clearly more attractive to the Blue Jays than chasing physical prototypes.

First-round fact
Martin was announced as a shortstop, listed as a “third baseman/outfielder” entering the Draft, and the Blue Jays say they won’t chart his positional course until they discuss it with Martin to involve him in the process. Things will get really interesting, though, when you consider that Martin played some center field at Vanderbilt.

The Blue Jays have used a combination of Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernández in center recently, but the organization craves a true, natural center-field option long term. The cost of acquiring that on the open market is steep, so keep a close eye on his position whenever Martin debuts in the Minor Leagues.

Day 2 name to watch
Van Eyk comes with 225 strikeouts over 176 2/3 NCAA innings, and he might have gone well higher had the season not been shut down. The right-hander posted a 1.74 ERA over his first four starts, so his arrow was pointing up.

Toronto views him as a starter, as it should, given his impressive fastball and a 12-6 curveball that he throws comfortably in any count. By backing up his raw stuff with a legitimate feel for pitching, Van Eyk could be a name who moves quickly for the Blue Jays and joins the wave of pitching talent coming behind Pearson.

NDFA strategy
Two factors working in Toronto’s favor could be its recent youth movement, creating opportunity throughout the organization, and its decision to raise Minor League salaries by 50 percent entering the 2019 season.

The Blue Jays will cast a wide net in search of both depth and top-end available talent, but there could be some trends to follow, too. On the mound, keep an eye on pitchers with high-spin fastballs or “athletic” deliveries that are natural and repeatable, something Toronto particularly values. With position players, keep an eye on prospects with versatility or advanced plate approaches.

The last word
“It’s hard to put any concrete timelines on that, but we do think it’s realistic to talk about [Martin] playing with Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Vladdy Guerrero and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. That’s exciting to think about.” -- Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins