TORONTO -- If you predicted that the Blue Jays would be leading the American League East going into the All-Star break … you were the only one.
Toronto’s 55-41 start has the team two games up on the Yankees, and instead of a “will they or won’t they?” conversation leading up to the July 31 Trade Deadline, the Blue Jays are now widely expected to be one of the more aggressive teams in baseball.
They’ve done all of this in such unexpected ways, too. Anthony Santander, their big splash from this past offseason, has given them a .577 OPS and is still on the IL with a left shoulder injury that’s stuck around. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t been playing his best baseball, either, but the Blue Jays seem to be pressing all of the right buttons at all of the right times and are getting great contributions from their role players.
Here’s where the Blue Jays stand at the break, with a big stretch run sitting right in front of them:
One second-half goal for the Blue Jays: Get Vladdy going
The Blue Jays have done all of this with Guerrero playing … fine. We haven’t seen anything close to his peak, though, making it even more surprising that the Blue Jays have managed to surge out in front of the AL East. Guerrero is the face of the franchise and the one player capable of taking over not only a game, but a series. We saw down the stretch in 2024 that he’s still capable of those incredible runs with a 1.000-plus OPS, which is exactly what the Blue Jays need if they’re going to keep this great story going.
Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Aggressive buyers
If not now, then when? The American League is wide open and the Blue Jays will have every opportunity to win the division, which is a conversation we haven’t had in Toronto in nearly a decade. This lineup is deep, stretching down into Triple-A, so the Blue Jays don’t just need to add big leaguers, they need to add star power. Even in the rotation, while some more depth would help, the Blue Jays need to be thinking like World Series contenders here. If they’re looking at a starter at the Trade Deadline, could that pitcher realistically start in the first three games of the ALDS? If not, aim higher.
Key player: Anthony Santander
Remember him? Santander was brought in to be the big power-hitting addition to the middle of this lineup, but it just hasn’t happened. He’s still working his way back from a left shoulder surgery and it’s likely we won't see him until some point in August, but who will Santander be when he’s back? Again, this is all about the ceiling for the Blue Jays. They’ve found ways to win without Santander, but if he can return for the stretch run and get hot at the right time, that would add another incredibly valuable layer to this lineup.
Prospect to watch: Trey Yesavage (No. 2)
The Blue Jays’ farm system has had a great year, but at this point, it’s all about who could help the big club down the stretch. That’s still unlikely for Yesavage, who just represented the organization at the Futures Game, but that door isn’t closed just yet. A dozen different things would need to break in the right direction, from health at the MLB level to Yesavage’s stretch run in Double-A as his workload grows, but the Blue Jays need their 13 best pitchers on the roster and that’s a conversation that could still happen down the road.
Looking at the Blue Jays’ schedule coming out of the All-Star break, here’s what you need to know:
- Games remaining: 66 (Home, 33; Away, 33)
- Remaining strength of schedule: .508 (10th-hardest in MLB)
- Key series
- July 21-23: Three-game series at home against the Yankees, who the Blue Jays swept in four games last time they visited. This is a big opportunity to keep some distance atop the AL East.
- Sept. 5-7: Three-game series at Yankee Stadium. If this division holds up, this could decide the shape of the AL East for the stretch run.
- Sept. 23-28: Final six-game homestand against the Red Sox and Rays, both of whom could be fighting for postseason spots in the final week.
It all gets rolling again this Friday in Toronto when the Giants come to town, and if things keep going this way, the Blue Jays are going to have more than just 66 games of baseball left in 2025.