Five Blue Jays’ stats you should care about

May 14th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

In the American League East, there’s no such thing as “early.” That concept died when the Rays became perennial contenders, and it was buried when the Orioles turned things around last year.

Individual stats still require some patience, though, as the hot streaks and early slumps smooth themselves out through April. Now that we’re getting to the heart of May, though, statistical oddities become new identities. 

Traditional numbers already show us a few interesting things, such as…

leading the American League in strikeouts with 67

• Blue Jays starters are third in MLB with 221 2/3 innings pitched

• 26 straight games with multiple walks as a team, a single-season club record

Then, we have the fancy stats. Here are five that stand out through the first 39 games from our Baseball Savant database, with numbers entering Sunday:

(Hard) hitmakers (Leaderboard)

Anything over 95 mph off the bat is considered a “hard-hit ball” and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads MLB with 70 of them. Rounding out the top seven are (68) and (65). It’s a laser show. 

The kicker in all of this? George Springer. He’s healthy and seems to be rounding a corner. When Springer starts reaching base like the great leadoff man he is, the trio behind him is going to produce even more runs.

Kiermaier as advertised (Leaderboard)

Great defense, like you see daily from Chapman or , still requires the eye test. It’s such a visual skill, and Blue Jays fans have spent years staring at Kiermaier making some of baseball’s best plays.

Kiermaier is currently worth 4 OAA (Outs Above Average), which ties him for the lead among all MLB outfielders. There have been highlight-reel plays at the wall and diving catches, but some of Kiermaier’s most impressive moments have been cutting off balls in the alleys and getting them back to the infield before the opponent can take an extra base. He’s been a fantastic signing for this club.

What you didn't expect (Leaderboard)

Kiermaier has contributed on offense, which is a bonus, but wasn’t part of the advertised package. Among all MLB hitters with a minimum of 25 plate appearances, Kiermaier’s .571 batting average against four-seam fastballs is the highest average against any individual pitch. Who had that in the office pool?

Close behind is Bichette in sixth, batting .474 against fastballs. Kiermaier’s numbers are likely to come back to earth, but Bichette is showing no signs of slowing, and this is exactly why. Being such a good fastball hitter and an aggressive first-pitch swinger can be an extremely dangerous combination.

Block party (Leaderboard)

The Blue Jays’ duo of  and  gives them the best blocking catchers in baseball, but Kirk is especially skilled. His six Blocks Above Average ties him with J.T. Realmutofor the second most in MLB. 

This isn’t a flashy thing, but it matters. Gausman can throw his splitter with full conviction, knowing that even if he spikes one, he’s got two of the game’s best behind the plate. It’s especially valuable if a runner is on base, as pitchers don’t need to shy away from burying a pitch.

Bassitt's best weapon (Leaderboard)

This team has a few candidates for “best pitch,” a conversation that starts with Gausman’s splitter. Trevor Richards’ changeup is in there, too, with a 55.4% whiff rate. ’s sweeper deserves some love, too.

That pitch has held opponents to a .091 average, ranking in the top 20 among all individual pitches (minimum 25 plate appearances ending with pitch). Even more impressive? A hard-hit rate of just 9.1%, which ranks fifth. Hitters can’t do anything with this pitch, and Braves hitters didn’t put any of the eight he threw in play in Friday’s complete-game shutout.

“For him to do what he did, it just felt like he was in complete control of everything he threw,” said Springer. “He seemed to throw sweepers and all sorts of Chris Bassitt stuff in counts they weren’t expecting it. It’s a great result for him.”