This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The MLB Winter Meetings get rolling this Sunday in San Diego, another welcome return to normal on the baseball calendar.

There’s no mystery around the Blue Jays. Their needs aren’t exactly sprawling, with almost the entire 2022 roster returning next season, but that roster wasn’t good enough. How, then, does Toronto press the buttons at the right times to get this group over the hump?

It starts with the rotation, where one addition is needed, and two additions would be ideal.

• Blue Jays Winter Meetings preview

“Starting pitcher is the one I’d put ‘definite’ on,” general manager Ross Atkins said earlier this week. “At the same time, we may find a different way to think about that. But if I had to put ‘definite’ on one role, that would be the one. The way we’re thinking about [it] is, what’s the best way we can prevent runs? Defense is involved there, too.”

Alek Manoah is the ace, with Kevin Gausman right alongside him as an outstanding one-two punch atop the rotation. So much of this discussion, however, hinges on how the Blue Jays view José Berríos over the next six seasons.

If Berríos continues to throw up a 5.23 ERA, then this rotation need is far more urgent, but not even the truest cynics can expect that. Berrios is due to bounce back, and even if it’s not to the mid-three ERA the Blue Jays were expecting to get, they’d welcome him returning to a solid No. 3.

“I just have so much faith in José Berríos being a lot closer to the pitcher he was over the years prior,” Atkins said. “I have very little concern about José Berríos being integral to our success, but we need to have both. We need to look to add from outside and we need to be better at adding from within, too.”

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they’re not exactly the only team looking for starting pitching. It’s easy to get tunnel vision at this point of the year, drawing a big red circle around starters with upside who pitching coach Pete Walker and the Blue Jays can work their magic on. Well, that’s happening in 29 other markets, too.

The Blue Jays will be involved in both free agency and the trade market, where the catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno could let them control the market if they choose. Don’t rule out a big swing on a short-term deal in free agency, but that becomes much easier to stomach if the Blue Jays are able to use their catching depth to fill one of their top needs.

The other item atop Toronto’s shopping list is an outfielder, following the trade of Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners. Atkins knows the logical fits, but he doesn’t think it’s that simple.

“As honest as I can possibly say it is: We’re just looking for good players,” Atkins said. “It’s not definitely a left-handed-hitting right-fielder to fill the role of Teoscar Hernández. Would that work? Sure. Can we consider centre field as well? Sure. Can we think about it a completely different way depending on the potential of trades? And how do we think about run prevention?”

The top of the market boasts names like Brandon Nimmo, while a veteran like Michael Brantley or a reclamation project like Cody Bellinger will appeal. Moving George Springer to right field is also on the table, whether that happens soon or a couple of years down the line. The Blue Jays have struggled to develop an outfielder internally for years now, and you’re starting to see how costly that can get when a need has to be filled externally.

The only guarantee is that it won’t be boring. No, the Blue Jays won’t be making 10 big splashes this offseason, but that jump from good to great is one of the most frustrating and fascinating in pro sports.

So many of these decisions facing the Blue Jays are bigger than the individual players. The Hernández deal was the perfect example, with the club making a tough decision on a beloved player to change the look of their roster, and they’ll be faced with that exact same decision again and again in the coming weeks.