Inbox: How good is the Blue Jays' rotation?

March 18th, 2021

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- With under two weeks until Opening Day in New York against the Yankees, the Blue Jays are closing in on some roster decisions while balancing their first wave of injuries.

Here are your questions about what’s happened in camp:

Are the starting pitchers, if healthy, good enough to make the Blue Jays a contender?
-- @jorgsbj

A contender for the postseason? Probably. A contender for a deep run? No.

Nate Pearson’s groin injury shouldn’t stretch too deep into the season and isn’t a major concern, but losing the underrated Thomas Hatch for any significant amount of time would be a tough blow. Otherwise, this rotation has an ace in Hyun Jin Ryu, but needs a No. 2. Line up how a Game 2 or Game 3 would look against some of the top rotations in baseball, and the Blue Jays are at a disadvantage. Circle the Trade Deadline on your calendar in bright red ink.

Is the hype real with Alek Manoah?
-- Everyone

Manoah had been the star of Spring Training for the Blue Jays, striking out seven Yankees over three perfect innings his last time out, before being reassigned to Minor League camp Thursday. That’s generated plenty of hype, which Manoah deserves, but I think we need to find a middle ground on this. Yes, Manoah has performed exceptionally well, but there’s still some development ahead with Double-A New Hampshire a sensible starting point. I’d lean to Simeon Woods Richardson as a late-season rotation option, but Manoah has forced the issue enough to be a potential late-season bullpen option depending on his performance and workload. He’s exceeded all expectations in camp.

With a lot of prospects on show in Spring Training is there an area where you feel the Blue Jays are thin in terms of upcoming talent?
-- @selwyn42550990

The outfield, but given Toronto’s Major League options, that’s not a major worry. The Blue Jays have just three true outfielders on their Top-30 Prospects list in Dasan Brown (No. 16), Will Robertson (24) and Josh Palacios (29). For an organization that once developed some great outfielders, it’s been a while. Thankfully, in players like Palacios, Chavez Young and Jonathan Davis, they have plenty of depth to supplement the starters for now.

What does the Opening Day roster bullpen look like? With so many lefties in the mix who are they likely to go with?
-- @Lesley_NOPE

Let’s start with the locks in Kirby Yates, Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Ryan Borucki, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps. Julian Merryweather will be in there, too, if he’s healthy. The final right-hander -- assuming a nine-man bullpen -- is up in the air with A.J. Cole involved, but I’ll give the edge to Francisco Liriano as the final lefty. Tim Mayza has had an outstanding Spring Training and should be in this picture at some point, though.

What’s Vladdy’s 2021 slash line predictions? Ceiling. Realistic. Floor. Go.
-- Faabs89

As long as we promise to only come back to this in early October if I’m right, let’s take a crack at it. I think it’s safe to use his career averages from his age-20 and 21 seasons as a rough floor and work from there.

Floor: .265 / .335 / .445 with 25 home runs
Realistic: .275 / .345 / .475 with 30 home runs
Ceiling: .290 / .370 / .560 with 38 home runs

What's your view on Yosver Zulueta? What are his chances on pitching this year?
-- @LittleAristotle

Zulueta is talented, exciting and raw. His fastball has reached as high as 99 mph, but this is still a young pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery with zero Minor League innings to his name. He’ll be stretched out as a starter and the Blue Jays will take their time, so let’s call 2023 his ETA for now. Keep him on your short list of prospects to track this summer given how wide his range of potential outcomes is.

What is the catcher hierarchy emerging?
-- @AndrewPoplin

The Blue Jays’ best roster has Danny Jansen as the 1A and Alejandro Kirk as his still-developing, bat-first backup in the Major Leagues. This puts the out-of-options Reese McGuire at risk of being lost on waivers, though a minor deal is always possible. Give me No. 19 prospect Riley Adams in Triple-A and No. 8 prospect Gabriel Moreno in Double-A, spacing them well so that they get plenty of reps. This is a talented group that other organizations are absolutely monitoring.

What have you seen from Austin Martin and what are your thoughts?
-- Greg S.

Looks at Martin have been fleeting, but it’s best not to read too much into Martin’s numbers just yet. He hasn’t hit much in camp and there were some early errors at shortstop, but he should round into form when he finally gets some steady game action after so long away from it. The one area Martin has surprised me this spring? His speed. Given his advanced hit tool, Martin should be a pest on the bases.

Which dark-horse prospects could surprise us with their upside?
-- Morrey E.

Keep an eye on the young, late-teens prospects who missed their first steps into full-season ball with the missed 2020 season. No. 6 prospect Orelvis Martinez is ranked too high to be a “dark horse”, but he could force himself onto some Top 100 lists this season. No. 19 prospect Joey Murray could push for a shot in the Majors. If No. 30 prospect Kevin Smith finds his bat again, his strong defensive foundation makes him easy to project as a big leaguer.