Inbox: Will Tellez make the Opening Day roster?

Beat reporter Keegan Matheson answers questions from Blue Jays fans

January 30th, 2020

TORONTO -- Just two weeks from Thursday, the hard crunch of baseball cleats on concrete will fill the newly renovated TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Fla., as pitchers and catchers will hold their first Spring Training workout on Feb. 13.

The Blue Jays have already done their heavy lifting this offseason, with a handful of depth moves still expected to come, but the club’s spring camp should offer an interesting mix of youth and open competition.

Here are some answers to your questions about Spring Training and beyond in the latest Inbox.

Who do you think is going to make the biggest shock in Spring Training and make the big league roster, and who will be the biggest “shocking” omission on Opening Day?
-- James T., Mitchell, Ontario

Positionally, the Blue Jays are fairly set when it comes to their starters. With the depth outfield jobs looking like a competition between Derek Fisher, Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford and Jonathan Davis, perhaps a surprise is likelier in the infield, where a prospect like Santiago Espinal could leapfrog some of the veterans in camp to challenge for a reserve role. The bullpen will have multiple spots open for competition, so that’s where I’d keep my eyes open for any real surprises. If you’re a veteran looking for one last shot in the bigs or a career Minor League reliever looking for an unlikely breakthrough, the Blue Jays are a good place to start.

When it comes to omissions, first base and the outfield come to mind. Rowdy Tellez is a well-known name among fans, but he’ll need to show an improved plate approach between his bursts of power this spring to stick on the roster.

The Reds’ signing of Nick Castellanos brought expectations that the club might be open to moving the former No. 2 overall pick from the 2016 Draft. The Reds don’t seem outwardly eager to do so -- besides, Nick Senzel can have plenty of value staying right where he is -- and that would be a tough trade match for the Blue Jays, who don’t have as many “win now” pieces as an average roster. What this does show us, though, is the value of a capable center fielder.

As the post-Kevin Pillar era has shown, being athletic is not the only requirement to play center in the Majors. Finding a “true” or “natural” center fielder was a priority for the Blue Jays this offseason, but only if they could make a significant upgrade over Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk. That’s not easy, and it will continue to be a challenge for the Blue Jays moving forward with little outfield depth in their system.

Who starts at first base on Opening Day in 2021? Is it Vladdy yet? What about … 2023?
-- Shaun L.

Let’s get the reality out of the way first. Last season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was worth -16 OAA (Outs Above Average) at third base. Of 218 qualified infielders, that ranked him 218th, and the eye test often agreed with it.

That being said, Guerrero has good hands when he fields a ball comfortably and quick feet when his fundamentals are right. The problems tend to arise when he’s fielding the ball on the move -- especially coming in -- and it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams challenge him with bunts more in 2020. At just 21 years old when this season starts, though, the Blue Jays will keep giving him every opportunity to tidy things up at third, where even near-average defence would be a major win for the organization.

On Opening Day 2021, I think you see either Travis Shaw or another one-year signing standing at first base. By ‘23, give me Guerrero.

Great question, because this isn’t just about Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire. The Blue Jays have No. 8 prospect Gabriel Moreno and No. 12 prospect Alejandro Kirk, both of whom profile as Major League pieces. Keep those names on your short list of prospects to watch in 2020.

Jansen still profiles as the likeliest starter long term, and his bat should catch up a bit in ‘20 after he put a great deal of focus on his defence in ‘19. The Blue Jays received many inquiries on both he and McGuire this offseason, which will be relevant again next winter. If the Blue Jays think that ‘21 is the season they can make their big jump, which is entirely possible, catching depth might be their best trade tool.