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Blue Jays Odds: +125

Red Sox Odds: -145

Over/Under: 11 (-110/-110)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Odds as of Monday morning and via DraftKings.

Boston went to Sahlen Field in Buffalo and swept Toronto in last week’s two-game series, and now the Blue Jays will travel to Fenway Park for the start of a three-game road trip on Monday night.

Both starters in Monday’s pitching matchup — Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Toronto’s Thomas Hatch — don’t have much history of success in MLB. But despite that, the total is overpriced, especially in the opening five innings of this game. Pivetta has improved his numbers across the board this year while Hatch has impressed in the minors and in a brief stint in relief in the majors last season.

Hatch Looks For Success Against Boston’s Lineup

Hatch hasn’t had a ton of big league action in his career and it’s been mostly out of the bullpen, but his profile is one that could give the Red Sox lineup trouble. He induced a lot of ground balls and weak contact throughout his time in the majors last year and the minors this year.

Walks will be a concern against this Red Sox lineup, but Hatch isn’t likely to throw more than three or four innings in this matchup before turning it over to the Jays’ bullpen.

Toronto’s batted ball data has dropped off a bit in recent weeks, as the Jays fell out of the top five in hard-hit rate. Their lineup hasn’t been quite as successful away from their two home fields this year, where the park is suited to lots of power hitters.

Red Sox Offense Looks To Get Going

Boston’s offense has been potent all season, ranking seventh in wRC+ across the league. But the Red Sox have also been relatively lucky with BABIP, where only the Nationals and White Sox have had a higher batting average on balls in play.

Boston is also second in clutch hitting and hitting with runners in scoring position, metrics that tend to be mostly random in the long term. The Red Sox are top 10 in soft hit rate based on the batted ball data and Hatch did an excellent job of missing barrels in his MLB stint last year.

Contrary to most teams, Boston’s bats have actually been better away from Fenway this year, as the Red Sox are 15th in hard-hit rate and 22nd in medium-hit rate.

Pivetta has the tendency to either shut an opposing lineup down or have blow-up innings that shorten his starts and lead to runs. His 4.37 ERA is a bit unlucky as his FIP and xERA are both lower by half of a run. While the Red Sox right-hander struggles with control and walks lots of batters, the Blue Jays are 24th in walk rate and don’t earn many free passes.

Blue Jays-Red Sox Pick

Even though Toronto and Boston feature two of the league’s top offenses against questionable pitching, the total is too high early on. I don’t have enough trust in either bullpen at the moment to back the full game under, but early on, Toronto and Boston should have fewer than six runs in the first five innings.

The market isn’t showing enough respect to two journeymen pitchers, despite the lineups they are facing. Anything -115 or better is good at 6.

Pick: First five innings under 6 (-115)