ORLANDO, Fla. -- The Winter Meetings are in full swing, and the Padres are open for business. With A.J. Preller as general manager, they always are.
“It’s been active,” Preller said Tuesday, speaking from his suite in Orlando. “In general, I think it’s been productive, starting to figure out some things that may be out there.”
So … what, exactly, is out there? Certainly plenty of trade speculation. As usual, Preller played coy about it. Per his own policy, he wouldn’t address specific rumors about specific players, though he did note, “We have a lot of players that people like.”
So, who are the Padres’ potential trade candidates? Here are the four big ones, ranked from most likely to least likely to be dealt:
1. Jake Cronenworth
Cronenworth’s name has been mentioned in trade speculation seemingly every offseason and Trade Deadline since he arrived in San Diego. Notably, he’s still a Padre. So why would this year be any different?
Chances are, it won’t be. It’s likelier than not that Cronenworth will return to San Diego next season. But the Padres will at least entertain a move. Especially if it would net them a quality return, while freeing up some resources they could allocate elsewhere.
Cronenworth has five years and $60 million remaining on his contract, which sounds about right for his level of production. He’s been a wholly serviceable player the past few years -- essentially a league-average hitter who brings extra value with his glove and versatility.
Then again, if the Padres were to trade Cronenworth, they’d leave a major hole at second base without an obvious path to fill it. Cronenworth has spent six seasons in San Diego and is highly regarded in the clubhouse. The Padres wouldn’t move him unless they were to fetch a decent haul in return.
2. Jeremiah Estrada
The Padres’ bullpen is by far and away their biggest strength. And that’s especially true now that Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan will continue pitching in relief (after some discussion of a move to the rotation).
But what if there’s a different way the Padres could draw from their bullpen to upgrade their rotation?
Estrada has future-closer-type stuff. He struck out 108 in just 73 innings last season and has posted a 3.22 ERA with a 2.87 FIP in two years with the Padres. He’s a very good reliever, on a pre-arbitration contract, who only just turned 27 and might still get better.
That’s an extremely valuable trade piece. And perhaps one San Diego can afford to move. Estrada is currently the No. 4 option in the ‘pen. It seems at least reasonable that, if they’re going to make a trade, the Padres would look to deal from a position of strength.
Though, to an extent, Preller disputed that notion.
“Any time you have multiple people at a spot, you at least can listen to those types of conversations,” Preller said. “But it’s not easy to find impact players. You don’t take that for granted.”
3. Nick Pivetta
On the surface, this one doesn’t make much sense. The Padres are in desperate need of starting pitching. Why would they trade the best pitcher currently in their rotation?
Well, Pivetta is due $20.5 million next year, then can opt out of the final two years on his contract. His value is seemingly as high as it’s ever been, coming off a season in which he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished sixth in voting for the NL Cy Young Award.
Could trading Pivetta at peak value net the Padres multiple starting pitchers with years of control? Two years ago at the Winter Meetings, Preller was also faced with a shortage in his rotation. And while Pivetta won’t fetch the same haul as Juan Soto, the concepts are similar: Dealing a very good player who is a year away from free agency to acquire multiple longer-term pieces.
4. Fernando Tatis Jr.
Here’s the big one. (And probably the least likely to actually happen.) But anything is possible with Preller. And the Padres would undoubtedly receive a massive haul if they were to trade Tatis, one of the best players in baseball, who is still only 26 years old -- not to mention entirely beloved by the Padres fanbase.
So why would the Padres even consider this? Well, they wouldn’t, unless the return was a major one -- multiple impact big leaguers and prospects. Sure, moving Tatis would free up some financial resources. But his contract is a very reasonable one. He has nine years remaining on the extension he signed prior to the 2021 season.
Even in a down year offensively, Tatis was worth 6.1 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He’s a cornerstone in San Diego. It would take something shocking to change that.
And, sure, Preller has shocked us before. But if he were to make this move, it might qualify as the most shocking of the bunch.