If you followed the Brewers and Rays this season, then you know they had the best records in the National League and American League, respectively.
You might’ve guessed they had better offenses than the Phillies, too.
The Brewers finished second in Major League Baseball in runs scored (832), despite a $150-million-plus payroll (19th in MLB). The Rays finished 12th (736) with a $110-million-plus payroll (27th). The Phillies, meanwhile, finished 19th (713) with a $320-million-plus payroll (4th).
Are the Brewers and Rays just smarter and better at executing a higher-quality hitting philosophy than the Phillies? MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote in August about the Brewers’ offense and why it’s worked so well for them. Essentially, Milwaukee hits the ball to the opposite field more than any other team, sacrificing power for getting on base. The Brewers walk a lot. They don’t swing a lot, either.
You saw them execute that plan to perfection on Sunday night in the ninth inning in Game 2 of the NLDS. Padres closer Mason Miller walked the bases loaded with two outs before Jackson Chourio spat on a 1-2 slider below the zone. Chourio then ripped the next pitch -- a 101.3 mph fastball -- up the middle for a two-run, walk-off single.
Miller threw 15 pitches out of the zone in the ninth inning.
Guess how many times the Brewers swung at them?
Zero.
Not once.
The Brewers chased an MLB-low 26.9% of pitches during the regular season, so it shouldn’t stun you that they let Miller walk the bases loaded when he was clearly struggling with his command.
It’s highly unlikely the Phillies would have shown similar restraint in the moment. They ranked fourth in baseball with a 32.6% chase rate in the regular season. It jumped to 36.9% against Atlanta in the NL Wild Card Series.
It remains the highest chase rate of any postseason team.
But it’s not like the Brewers are small-balling their opponents to death. They tied for 14th in MLB in sacrifice flies (45). They ranked fifth with 37 sacrifice bunts, but 20 years ago, 21 teams had more sacrifice bunts than that.
Milwaukee had a higher strikeout rate than the Phillies. Its players swung the bats harder than the Phillies. The Brewers hit the ball harder, too.
They weren’t just finessing the ball to the opposite field.
We’ll see how it works for the rest of the playoffs. Last fall, remember, the Brewers’ offense collapsed against the Dodgers in the NLCS. Los Angeles hit six home runs in the four-game sweep. The Brewers hit one.
Entering this postseason, when a team outhomers its opponent in a playoff game, it wins roughly 80 percent of the time.
Make no mistake: Home runs will always be more valuable than a perfectly executed bunt.
But all the pieces matter in October.
Perhaps the better question is: Do the Phillies have the right pieces?
They had an MLB-low three players with an OPS+ better than 100 this season (minimum 100 plate appearances): Kyle Schwarber (131), Bryce Harper (128) and Derek Hill (107). The Braves had four players with an OPS+ better than 100, but they were all regulars: Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II and Matt Olson.
Every other postseason team had five or more players with an OPS+ better than 100. The Phillies haven’t had a lineup with three or fewer players like that since 2016: Tommy Joseph (113), Odúbel Herrera (109) and César Hernández (106).
They haven’t had fewer than seven players like that during the first four years of their five-year postseason run.
OPS+ takes a player’s on-base-plus-slugging-percentage and adjusts the number across the league, accounting for external factors like ballparks. So, a player with an .800 OPS in a hitter’s park like Cincinnati isn’t the same as a player with an .800 OPS in a pitcher’s park like San Francisco.
Schwarber’s 131 OPS+ this season means his OPS was 31 percent better than the league average.
Did the entire Phillies offense underperform at the same time? The Phillies hope that’s the case with Trea Turner (81 OPS+) and J.T. Realmuto (65 OPS+), who are both signed to multiyear deals, and Bryson Stott (98 OPS+) and Brandon Marsh (90 OPS+), who also remain under team control.
Luiz Arraez (82 OPS+), Alec Bohm (87 OPS+), Edmundo Sosa (89 OPS+) and Adolis García (61 OPS+) underperformed compared to league average, like the others. The Phillies hope Justin Crawford (78 OPS+) improves upon his rookie season.
These are the things that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and Co. will have to discuss, answer and address in the offseason.
Because it’s clear they can’t run this offense back again. Something has to change.