Breaking down all 30 Top 30 Prospects lists

March 4th, 2019

All 30 teams’ 2019 Top 30 Prospects lists are out. 900 players. With a total of 4,148 grades for tools and pitches, not to mention pertinent information like birth dates and expected time of arrival in the big leagues, you need more than a Veg-O-Matic to slice and dice all the information on Prospect Watch.

So let’s give it a shot.

The grades -- from the average overall grade of each player on a team’s Top 30 down to the individual tools of those players -- give an indication of which farm systems are thriving. How those grades sync up with MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 farm systems list is very informative.

It should come as no surprise that nine of the teams on that Top 10 also appear on the list of the 10 teams whose Top 30 prospects have the highest average overall grades:

Overall (Top 10 ranking)

  1. Padres, 50.17 (1)
  2. Blue Jays, 49.00 (5)
  3. Rays, 48.44 (2)
  4. White Sox, 47.50 (4)
    T5) Reds, 47.50 (9)
    T5) Twins, 47.50 (8)
    T5) Braves, 47.50 (3)
  5. Astros, 47.33 (6)
  6. Dodgers, 47.00 (7)
  7. Rangers, 46.83

The Tigers are the only Top 10 system not on this list, and they aren’t far behind at 46.17. The Indians and D-backs (each at 46.33) are between Texas and Detroit. We’ve been saying all along that the Padres have easily the best farm system in baseball, that it’s not even close. This adds credence to the claim, given their average overall grade is over a point higher than the next system.

Top teams, bottom farms

The axiom that it’s tough to win and maintain a good farm system simultaneously is also true. Five teams that have accounted for nine of the past 10 World Series titles are all close to the bottom of the average overall grades list:

  1. Cardinals, 45.67
  2. Red Sox, 45.17
  3. Cubs, 45.17
  4. Royals, 45.17
  5. Giants, 44.50

The only exception to this rule is the Astros, who are still managing a balance, but it should be noted that at various times over the past 10 years, the Red Sox, Cubs and Royals have all had top-ranked farm systems, while the Cardinals and Giants' systems were also much stronger leading up to and during their impressive postseason runs of the early 2010s. So it’s possible the Astros are fighting the clock, with winning championships a trade-off any franchise would make.

Breaking down each team's Top 30 prospects' overall grades by hitters and pitchers shows why the Padres are the clear No. 1 farm system, as they rank in the top two on both lists.

Top 5 hitting & pitching prospects

Average overall hitter grades:

  1. White Sox, 50.36
  2. Padres, 49.12
  3. Nationals, 49.09
  4. Blue Jays, 49.00
  5. Rays, 48.68

Average overall pitching grades:

  1. Padres, 51.54
  2. Astros, 49.00
  3. Braves, 48.42
  4. Rays, 48.08
  5. Blue Jays, 48.00

Only the Rays and Blue Jays are in the top five of both lists, which is why they land in the top five of our farm system rankings. Toronto’s spot on the hitters list is no surprise, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette ranked the Nos. 1 and 11 prospects in baseball. Its placement on the pitchers list, though, is a testament to depth over elite pitching talent.

The White Sox hitting prospects, topped by Eloy Jimenez, carry that system, with a pitching crop that ranks 18th. The Nats also rank among the top five in hitting, but the fact that they are No. 27 on the pitching list is a big reason why they didn’t crack our overall Top 10.

Conversely, all five teams on the pitching list above made the overall top 10 rankings. The Braves and Astros have so much good pitching that it offsets the fact that they are No. 22 and No. 25 on the hitting list.

Individual tool grades

We can drill down even further, to individual grades. With top fives for the position players’ five tools as well as four pitch grades plus control for the arms, that’s a total of 50 systems ranked by tools. Our top 10 organizations appear a total of 23 times. Which team appears on the most lists below? Yep, you guessed it: the Padres.

Hit

  1. Twins, 52.0
  2. Padres, 51.8
  3. Rays, 51.6
  4. Blue Jays, 51.5
  5. White Sox, 51.4

Power

  1. White Sox, 51.1
  2. Red Sox, 50.0
  3. Padres, 49.4
  4. Giants, 49.3
  5. Blue Jays, 49.0

Run

  1. Angels, 55.9
  2. Marlins, 55.7
  3. Pirates, 54.1
  4. A’s, 54.0
  5. Reds, 53.6

Arm

  1. Rangers, 57.9
  2. Royals, 56.8
  3. Braves, 56.4
  4. Dodgers, 55.9
  5. Giants, 55.7

Field

  1. Royals. 56.1
  2. Nationals, 55.0
  3. A’s, 54.5
  4. Rangers, 53.9
  5. Reds, 53.3

Fastball

  1. Reds, 62.9
  2. White Sox, 62.8
  3. Blue Jays, 62.0
  4. Rockies, 61.9
  5. Giants, 61.9

Curveball

  1. Rockies, 56.4
  2. Astros, 55.5
  3. Brewers, 55.0
  4. Nationals, 55.0
  5. Yankees, 55.0

Slider

  1. Orioles, 56.3
  2. Dodgers, 56.0
  3. Rays, 55.6
  4. Red Sox, 55.6
  5. Mariners, 55.4

Changeup

  1. Padres, 53.5
  2. Cardinals, 52.3
  3. Rays, 52.1
  4. Rangers, 51.9
  5. Astros, 51.9

Control

  1. A’s, 52.0
  2. Twins, 52.0
  3. Padres, 51.9
  4. Mets, 50.7
  5. Indians, 50.5

Who’s ready to help?
Having a lot of talent that’s ready to contribute soon is something every organization hopes for. Teams that are rebuilding, in particular, can look at who is expected to make it up in the next two seasons and hope the turnaround can happen quicker than expected. Could these teams with the most players with ETAs of 2019 or 2020 be the Atlanta Braves of the ’19 or ’20 seasons?

  1. Tigers, 25
  2. White Sox, 24
  3. Cardinals, 21
  4. Orioles, 20
  5. Mariners, 20

Youth movements
The average age of the players on each team's Top 30 list could be an indicator of which farm systems will be next to ascend into the Top 10. Here's a list of the teams with the youngest average age on their Top 30 lists, which suggests that the Padres might have a very good system for a very long time, the Twins could rise to the top of the Top 10 list and that we should all keep an eye on the Indians and Yankees.

  1. Indians, 2/4/98
  2. Yankees, 12/26/97
  3. Padres, 12/19/97
  4. Phillies, 9/2/97
  5. Mets, 7/30/97
  6. Rangers, 7/10/97
  7. Blue Jays, 7/8/97
  8. Brewers, 6/15/97
  9. Twins, 6/5/97
  10. Red Sox, 5/18/97