Breaking down the Twins' playoff rotation options

September 21st, 2023

This story was excerpted from Do-Hyoung Park’s Twins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

At this point, this much seems obvious: The Twins will almost certainly have and  lined up to pitch the first two games of the postseason. López is the team’s first 200-strikeout pitcher in half a decade; Gray has been among the American League’s ERA leaders all season.

But who would come next?

In the Wild Card Series, a five-man rotation will shrink to three, with and  likely competing for the final slot in what could be a decisive Game 3 (if the series were to get there). Both have faltered at points down the stretch, but Maeda certainly added to his case on Tuesday by allowing one hit in five scoreless innings against the playoff-hopeful Reds.

The Dodgers typically moved Maeda to the bullpen for the playoffs, but the veteran right-hander has made it clear over the years that he prefers starting -- but does Maeda have a preference for this postseason?

“That’s a tough question to answer, but really, wherever the team puts me,” Maeda said through interpreter Dai Sekizaki. “I just go out and do my best, whatever that role may be. During the regular season, I prefer to be a starter. But when it comes to the postseason, everything changes.”

In all likelihood, the pick could be dictated by matchup considerations against the Twins’ first-round opponent, which is still essentially a toss-up between the Astros, Rangers, Blue Jays and Mariners.

Ryan was consistent and dominant at times for much of the first half, and Maeda was arguably the club’s most effective pitcher when he first returned from the injured list in June, but neither has done much to separate himself of late.

Maeda had a 5.04 ERA in August but has rebounded to a 2.82 ERA in September. Ryan struggled while pitching through a groin injury for much of July and August. He had two strong starts in his return from the IL, but he hasn’t been sharp in his three starts since then, failing to complete five innings in two of those. But pitching deep into games won't be as much of a factor with quicker hooks in the postseason.

“Putting guys away a little earlier, probably. That's probably it,” Ryan said after his last start, when asked what he needed to clean up ahead of the postseason.

As for avoiding damage, Maeda has been less home run-prone on both a per-inning basis and a per-fly-ball basis -- but how much of that can be attributed to Ryan’s increased vulnerability to the long ball while he was pitching hurt? Quick runs on homers can make a big difference in the postseason, and long balls can serve as inflection points.

Here’s a clue, though: The Twins currently have Ryan lined up behind López and Gray in their rotation order -- and in order for Maeda to be on a rest schedule for a possible Game 3 start, he’d have to skip a start in what remains of the regular season due to the layout of upcoming off-days.

“If I had a say, I’d probably want to do a starter role, but then again, for the reasons I said earlier, [I’ll go] wherever the team puts me,” Maeda said.

For what it’s worth, Ryan has never made a relief appearance in the Majors. Maeda has pitched out of the bullpen in 21 of his 25 postseason appearances, with a 1.64 ERA out of the bullpen in both one-inning and multi-inning appearances. But his last relief appearance in October came in 2019, and he notably threw five shutout innings as the Twins’ starter in Game 1 of the 2020 AL Wild Card Series against Houston.

Either way, the fact that the Twins can have this debate at all says something about where this team stands in comparison to those that have come before.

Pitching depth has been this club’s Achilles' heel, time after time, as the Twins have been knocked out of October run after October run. For once, they’ve put themselves in a position of both depth and health so they’re trying to choose which of their seasoned starters with upside they can turn to after their workhorse Opening Day man and their Cy Young Award contender.

And wherever those pitchers fall, they’ll be ready.

“We all shift gears towards winning each game, so [for] each role that I’m in, I just go out and give it [my] all,” Maeda said.