Despite a slow start, the Cardinals are right in the mix for a Wild Card spot and just a few games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. This is, fair to say, a surprising development. The only time anyone talked about the Cardinals in the offseason was to occasionally update everyone on their inability to trade Nolan Arenado -- they even had a deal in place with the Astros at one point before Arenado nixed the trade, and one wonders how different each of those teams look right now if that trade goes through -- and this was widely considered, even within the Cardinals organization itself, as a transition year, a step back as the Cardinals move from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom as the person in the charge.
And yet: Here the Cardinals are, tied for the most wins in the National League in the month of May and one of the most purely fun teams to watch on a nightly basis. For years, Cardinals fans have lamented the loss of teams that play like the old Whiteyball 1980s Cardinals teams, and yet here is a team that is a spiritual cousin: One that is built around speed, contact hitting and, most of all, defense.
But can they stick? Is this really a playoff team? Let’s take a look at three reasons to believe in the Cardinals … and three reasons to be skeptical.
3 reasons to believe in the Cardinals
Their team strength is defense, which never slumps.
In Spring Training, it was widely assumed that the Cardinals would head into the season playing the defensively challenged (but offensively skilled) Lars Nootbaar in center field, with Michael Siani as a late-inning defensive replacement and Victor Scott II beginning the year in Triple-A Memphis. Instead, surprisingly, they handed the job to Scott on Opening Day, in large part as a nod to the work he’d put in in the offseason offensively. The move has turned out to be a masterstroke. Scott instantly has become one of the best center fielders in baseball, Nootbaar has held up fine in the less challenging left field and, stunningly, Jordan Walker, whose outfield defense was troublesome in 2024, has transformed himself into a fantastic right fielder.
Meanwhile, Masyn Winn might be the best defensive shortstop in baseball, Arenado has been resurgent at third base (he’s back to being a Gold Glove candidate over there, something he has said might be his primary later-career goal), Brendan Donovan has been excellent at second (and left field when he plays out there) and even Willson Contreras has been much better than expected in his first year at first base. (They’ve even improved at catcher by mostly moving Iván Herrera to designated hitter and having Pedro Pagés and Yohel Pozo split time behind the plate.) The Cardinals currently lead baseball in Outs Above Average by a rather dramatic amount, which has improved everything on the roster, including a surprising starting pitching staff. Bats will slump, but gloves won’t. Barring injury, this will remain the best defense in baseball.
Their offense is holding up despite its two most important players struggling.
Back when everyone thought this season was just going to be a holding pattern for the Cardinals, the primary gauge of whether or not this Cardinals season was going to be successful or not rested on two young players: Walker and Nolan Gorman. The Cardinals had planned on building around these two young power hitters, but each of them had stalled out the last two seasons, in large part, according to each of them, because they were nervous they’d be pulled from the lineup at the first sign of slumping. So the Cardinals committed to them: They’d have a full year to figure it out. Well, neither of them really has: Gorman is hitting .191 with only one homer, and Walker is hitting .215 with an alarming strikeout rate.
And yet the offense, even with these two struggling, is still thriving: They’re seventh in runs scored, seventh in OPS and second in batting average. That’s partly because of an All-Star season from Donovan, a power surge from Herrera upon his return from injury and improvements from Scott, Winn and a healthy Nootbaar. And the even better news: Walker and Gorman are slowly starting to come along. Walker had a huge hit to win a game against the Royals, and both of them tripled in succession on Tuesday against the Orioles. If the Cardinals can get those two going, look out.
The under-the-hood numbers are all good.
The Cardinals have been outstanding in May, but it’s worth noting that despite a losing record in April, they played a little better than that record showed. The primary change that happened in May was an improved bullpen, thanks in large part to the emergence of Kyle Leahy and the insertion of Steven Matz as a pseudo-swingman. The Cardinals have a plus-45 run differential -- that’s essentially the same as the Phillies, and better than the Mariners -- and the deeper you dig into the numbers, the better their record looks. Clay Davenport’s Adjusted Standings, which take into account schedules, equivalent runs scored and allowed and all sorts of factors that don’t show up in the traditional standings, are even more optimistic. According to third-order winning percentage, the Cardinals are the third-best team in the National League, behind only the Mets and the Cubs (and thus ahead of all those teams they’ll be battling for the Wild Card spots). This is not a fluke. If anything … the Cardinals’ record should be even better than it is.
3 reasons to be skeptical
The pitching still feels a little held together by spit and baling wire.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Cardinals in May has been the success of their rotation. The Cardinals have had the ninth best ERA in baseball in May, and the rotation has been a big reason why. Matthew Liberatore has established himself as their ace, but the keys to May have been Miles Mikolas (3-0 with a 3.08 ERA) and Erick Fedde (2-1 with a 3.03 ERA). Mikolas is a particular surprise; after a miserable start in Boston in April, you wondered if the Cardinals might just release him, but he has made enough adjustments not just to stay in the rotation, but to thrive. But neither Mikolas nor Fedde strike very many batters out, and neither does Andre Pallante, their fifth starter. (Only Liberatore and Sonny Gray have above-average strikeout rates.) They’ve relied on that defense to get outs, and that’s not a terrible strategy. But there is still crash potential for this rotation.
They still don’t hit for much power.
The Cardinals' home run leader is Nootbaar, their leadoff man, with eight. They’ve got three guys in second, with six, including Winn, their defensive specialist shortstop. Part of that is because Herrera, their top power threat and cleanup hitter, missed three weeks with an injury, but there’s no question that the Cardinals are a contact team rather than a power hitting team. That’s not hurting them too much just yet because of how well they hit with runners in scoring position -- they’re third in the majors at .272 -- but that’s the sort of number that can fluctuate. What the Cardinals need, and so far lack, is pop. It’s possible that Walker and Gorman continue to progress and help out here, but right now, this looks like a team that needs two or three hits to score a run.
They’re highly unlikely to make any helpful moves as the deadline approaches.
As fun as this Cardinals team is right now, it should be noted that the overarching modus operandi of this season has not changed: This is still a gap year for the team, a year where they’re transitioning from one leader (Mozeliak) to another (Bloom), and a year in which they appear hesitant to make any long-term commitments. (They signed only one free agent this offseason, reliever Phil Maton, and it was a one-year deal.)
The more they win, the less likely they are to trade Arenado, Fedde or closer Ryan Helsley, players many thought the Cardinals would have on the market at the Deadline, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be aggressive buyers either. When you look around at the teams the Cardinals will be competing with for a Wild Card spot, they all seem far more likely to make a big move at the deadline. In many ways -- for better and for worse -- this right here is the team the Cardinals have, for now and for the rest of the season. The Cardinals don’t have any obvious holes right now. But if any appear, you wonder how hard they will push to fill them.
Perhaps the right way for Cardinals fans to think of this season is as a bonus, house money, a team that not much was expected of but one that is playing like a playoff contender. The gap year that is 2025 for the Cardinals is still happening, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing either: The changes being made do bode well for the future of Bloom and his new regime. But that doesn’t mean the Cardinals can’t win right now either. The Cardinals are surprising, and fun, and sometimes joyous to watch. Can it last? I, for one, will keep watching every night to find out.