ST. LOUIS – For a second straight day, a defensive miscue and an absent offense prevented the Cardinals from posing much of a challenge to the Phillies, who cruised to a 5-0 win in Wednesday’s rubber match at Busch Stadium.
But even amid a stretch where the Cardinals have dropped six of seven, those deficiencies don’t scream of long-term concern. What isn’t so much an anomaly, however, is the trouble the rotation has had in bailing out the rest of the group.
Just as Dakota Hudson succumbed to the Phillies’ pressure during a 28-pitch second inning on Tuesday, Jack Flaherty saw a promising start unravel during a 43-pitch fifth on Wednesday.
“We’ve been absolutely right there so many times,” Flaherty said, speaking generally of the rotation. “And one little thing has opened the floodgates so many times. It feels like if something goes wrong, we’re not able to pitch out of it. We haven’t been able to. And that’s something we’ve got to clean up.”
The Phils sent 10 batters to the plate in the fifth while capitalizing on a leadoff walk and an infield misplay. They scored four times to end Flaherty’s day, meaning that only once in this last turn through the rotation has a Cards starter recorded an out in the sixth.
“A couple of these starts have been magnified because we haven’t been able to get a lead,” said manager Mike Shildt, whose club has been held to one or fewer runs in four of its past seven games. “It’s just a matter of us getting back to playing with a lead a little bit more and not having to magnify our starters to where they feel like they have very little margin for error.”
Finding a way back on track will require a collective reset from the rotation, which ranks, in several key metrics, within the bottom-third of the National League. Here’s a look at what has gone wrong to this point, as well as possible solutions should the Cardinals wish to make a change:
What do the numbers say?
They certainly don’t paint a flattering picture for a unit that, outside of one missed start by Michael Wacha, has remained intact since the start of the season. The rotation’s 4.46 ERA ranks 10th in the NL and represents a sharp spike from the 3.52 ERA the Cards’ starters posted a year ago.
Flaherty’s start also captured a handful of recurring trouble spots for the rotation. He walked three batters in the decisive fifth inning, bumping the rotation’s walk rate to 3.54 per nine innings. That’s third worst in the NL.
“The leadoff walk maybe the most frustrating,” said Flaherty, who was able to work around the other two. “As a whole, we can obviously be better [in this area].”
They’re not countering it with K's either, though that’s not all that surprising given that the team features a mostly pitch-to-contact staff. Only the Pirates have a worse strikeout rate than the Cardinals through the season’s first six weeks.
Flaherty’s extended fifth inning -- which came after he had thrown only 48 pitches through four innings -- precluded the right-hander from pitching any deeper. That’s also been a recurring theme. The Cards, who rank 12th in the NL with an average of 17.1 pitches per inning, have gotten an average of five innings per start out of this rotation.
Where could the team turn for help?
Right now, Shildt says they don’t plan to turn anywhere. The fact that each of the five starters has had flashes of brilliance at one time or another is enough to warrant confidence that a collective turnaround is imminent.
“One of the things I think about a lot is the proper reaction to things,” Shildt said. “You don’t want to overreact, but clearly you don’t want to underreact either. But I look and guys are giving us a chance. We’ll always evaluate it, but I don’t think there’s any need to think about anything different from my seat.”
If the Cardinals change that thinking, though, they’re much likelier to dip into their depth than go outside of the organization for help.
Daniel Ponce de Leon demonstrated during a five-inning spot start on April 23 that he’s capable of contributing at the big league level. And lefty Austin Gomber, who helped Triple-A Memphis to another win on Wednesday, has had a terrific first month in Triple-A. He’s 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings.
Alex Reyes, who is extending his pitch count in a controlled setting while healing a broken left pinkie, could be a rotation option by the end of May.