On Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium, the ace of the National League West for the past 10 years will meet the pitcher who has a chance to be the ace for the next 10 years in that division. One week after out-dueling reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, Padres rookie phenom Chris Paddack will make his eighth career start, and this time he’ll do it matching up against three-time NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers.
Paddack’s career has started off about as well as anyone could have imagined. He enters Tuesday with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP. He’s struck out 46 batters, walked 10 and allowed just two home runs.
He’s allowed a .130 opponent batting average, which is the lowest opponent average in a player’s first seven career starts since 1900 (minimum 40 batters faced), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That means every other traditional starter in the modern era allowed a higher opponent batting average than that in his first seven starts. Every. Single. One.
Lowest opponent batting average in first seven career starts
Since 1900, min 40 batters faced
- Chris Paddack: .130
- Wayne Simpson: .134
- Dick Hughes: .137
- Freddy Peralta: .144
- Tommy Byrne: .145
Better than Kershaw's?
Did you notice that Kershaw’s name was not among those on this top-five list? Kershaw is one of the best active pitchers, yet even he did not get off to a start quite like Paddack’s.
So, how did Kershaw’s first seven starts go? Nowhere near as well as Paddack’s. In his first seven career starts, Kershaw had a 4.36 ERA and 29 strikeouts. He allowed a .270 opponent batting average and walked 22 batters. Certainly not the worst start to a career by any measure, but also nowhere near the best. Kershaw finished his 2008 rookie year with a 4.26 ERA, .265 opponent batting average and a 21 percent strikeout rate.
He had 1.5 WAR as a pitcher in 107 2/3 innings in his rookie year. In 40 2/3 innings this year, Paddack already has 1.7 WAR as a pitcher.
Age is another important difference here. Kershaw debuted as a 20-year-old, whereas Paddack is already 23. A 2015 draftee, Paddack threw 177 2/3 innings in the Minors and dealt with injury setbacks before finally reaching the Majors in '19. Kershaw was drafted in '06 and was in the Majors by May 25, 2008. He threw more Minor League innings than Paddack since he was free from injury, but he was certainly younger.
Kershaw's first seven career starts
ERA: 4.36
IP: 33
K: 29
BB: 22
WHIP: 1.67
Paddack's first seven career starts
ERA: 1.55
IP: 40 2/3
K: 46
BB: 10
WHIP: 0.69
But the most important part of Kershaw’s rookie year? He has only improved since then. Since that 4.26 ERA, he hasn’t completed a season with an ERA even above 2.91. His WHIP and opponent average are also highs that he hasn’t come close to in any other season since, and his strikeout rate was his lowest.
Along the way, Kershaw’s won three NL Cy Young Awards and an NL MVP Award and been a seven-time All-Star. There’s no question that Paddack has a long way to go to match Kershaw’s success and longevity over such a period of time. But he’s sure off to a good start.