DFS Picks: Woodruff or Ray? Hill or Morton?

June 29th, 2021

Tuesday's jam-packed slate presents fantasy players with some difficult decisions when it comes to filling out their lineups, particularly on the mound. There are some reliable aces for those who want to spend up on pitching, but there are also plenty of middle-of-the-pack options -- and even a couple pitchers who might be worth rolling the dice on.

Let's take a closer look at the various options below (tiers are based on Daily Fantasy salaries):

TOP TIER

The options: Brandon Woodruff (vs. Cubs), Robbie Ray (vs. Mariners), Walker Buehler (vs. Giants), José Urquidy (vs. Orioles), Trevor Rogers (vs. Phillies), Kevin Gausman (vs. Dodgers)

The pick: Woodruff (vs. Cubs)

The reason: There are plenty of star pitchers here -- and most of them have plus matchups -- but we'll stick with the chalk pick of Woodruff. Ray is in a great spot against the Mariners, as is Urquidy against the Orioles. Rogers, meanwhile, has a 1.42 ERA with 13 strikeouts in his first two starts vs. Phillies. On the West Coast, Gausman (two runs or fewer in all but one of his 15 outings this season) and Buehler (1.38 ERA in two starts vs. the Giants this season) are destined for a pitchers' duel.

Still, if you're going to pay up tonight, it's hard to find a better option than Woodruff. The Cubs strike out at the third-highest rate in the Majors -- and Woodruff has already taken advantage of that lineup a few times. He faced Chicago three times in April, posting a miniscule 0.47 ERA and 22 strikeouts over 19 innings. He allowed only six hits in those three outings. Overall, the righty has allowed more than three runs just once this season -- and that came at Coors Field. If you remove that five-run anomaly at altitude, Woodruff has a 1.50 ERA in his other 14 starts, while alloweing two runs or fewer in 13 of them.

VALUE PLAYS

The options: Rich Hill (vs. Nationals), Nick Pivetta (vs. Royals), Charlie Morton (vs. Mets), Lucas Giolito (vs. Twins), Andrew Heaney (vs. Yankees), Joe Ross (vs. Rays), James Kaprielian (vs. Rangers)

The pick: Morton vs. Mets

The reason: The nod here nearly went to Kaprielian, who has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his eight starts. He'll be facing the Rangers for the second time in less than a week after holding them to two runs over six innings in a no-decision on Wednesday, and he's racked up 46 K's in 44 innings this season. Kaprielian has also allowed just four hits over 13 scoreless innings at home. Heaney also received some consideration, though he's a boom-or-bust option who probably has just as good of a chance at racking up double-digit strikeouts as he does giving up three homers and calling it an early night in the Bronx. Giolito has similar prospects against the Twins given his inconsistencies this season. 

In the end, we're rolling with Morton. The veteran right-hander struck out 11 and allowed only one hit over seven scoreless innings against the Mets in his last outing exactly one week ago. He's had the Mets' number this season, posting a 0.69 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 13 innings in two starts against New York. He may also be on the verge of hitting his stride, as he's struck out 18 over 14 2/3 scoreless frames in his last two outings overall.

ROLL THE DICE

The options: Carlos Martínez (vs. D-backs), Kenta Maeda (vs. White Sox), Zach Davies (vs. Brewers), Chris Flexen (vs. Blue Jays)

The pick: Martínez vs. D-backs

The reason: Yes, Martínez is 0-5 with 13.73 ERA in five June starts, during which he's allowed 30 runs on 31 hits and 17 walks in just 19 2/3 innings this month. And yes, he's coming off a seven-walk outing on Thursday against the Pirates. This pick won't be for the faint of heart, but the D-backs are a different offense on the road than they are at home. They average 4.7 runs per game and hit .252 in the comforts of Chase Field, but that drops to 3.8 runs per game and they hit just .217 away from home. While Martínez hasn't exactly been great at home (2-3, 5.85 ERA), he's been better at Busch Stadium than he has on the road (1-6, 7.52 ERA). If you're comfortable taking the risk to load up on hitters, Martínez is the ultimate roll-the-dice play.