Greetings from the surprisingly chilly desert in Arizona. I’m running around Spring Training, visiting 10 Cactus League camps in 10 days. But I wanted to make sure I took time to answer some questions for this week’s Inbox.
Which Top 100 prospect do you and @jimcallisMLB differ the most on? -- @2000sSports
We had a lot of fun digging into this on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast. And boy did Jim and I get into it.
OK, maybe that’s being a bit overdramatic. But it was a good time to talk about how we don’t all see all players the same way, or get the same opinions from evaluators we talk to about the same players. The way our process is work is that the three of us -- myself, Jim and Sam Dykstra -- each will put together our individual lists, usually about 125 deep. Then we combine our lists, tweak the order and send it out for feedback to evaluators. And we use that feedback to come up with as close to an industry consensus as we can get.
Taking a look at some of our initial opinions, it will shock many of you to know we differed. In one direction, we had Robert Hassell III. I was higher on the Nationals outfielder than Jim was, and that might date back to both of us seeing him differently in high school showcase play. On the flip side there was Bo Naylor, who Jim had higher than I did. And here we are, still talking to each other.
Where would Dylan Crews be ranked when eligible? -- @Gh0sty32
Normally, I’d like a little more time before trying to sort something like this out. After all, Crews and Louisiana State have played eight games. It’s not really enough to truly know where the Tigers outfielder belongs on the Top 100, let alone where he’s going to go in the Draft.
But sure, I’ll play. He is the No. 1 player in our Draft Top 100, after all. And he is off to a .519/.649/.741 start, for whatever that’s worth. Let’s look at some history to see where previous top of our board/No. 1 picks have gone when we re-rank in the summer.
Last year, Druw Jones was No. 1 on our board. Jackson Holliday went No. 1 in the Draft. They ended up at No. 15 and 12, respectively, in the new Top 100. In 2021, our top-ranked prospect, Marcelo Mayer landed at No. 9 on the midseason list, while No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis came in at No. 23. The 2020 season certainly was atypical because of the pandemic, but No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson, who was also No. 1 on our board, came in at No. 7.
It kind of comes down to where Crews fits among those players. He might not have the same ceiling as Jones or Holliday and he has more tools than Torkelson. File this with a huge “let’s wait and see” caveat, but I’ll say Crews will end up somewhere in the 5-10 range when we re-rank.
Of the many SS prospects in the Top 100 ... who are the best bets to move off the position -- @bigstu57
Even among those listed on the Top 10 shortstops, there are those who won’t end up playing the premium position. Some of that might be because they will outgrow or can’t play the position and some might be because there’s someone in their way.
You could even start at the top with Anthony Volpe. He maximizes the tools he has, and that gives him the chance to stick at short. But his average arm and range might be better suited for second base, not to mention the presence of Oswald Peraza. Elly De La Cruz could end up at third or, who knows, in the outfield. Marco Luciano might be best suited for third base and Noelvi Marte is already playing the hot corner more. Our No. 10 shortstop, Brooks Lee, has the instincts for short, but also might be best suited for third or second.
So I guess the question really is really who are the best bets to stay at shortstop? Jackson Holliday might be the surest bet (I think Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar can both play there, but there are a couple of questions that make me want to put Holliday atop this “sure-fire shortstop” list. Jackson Merrill looks more and more like a long-term shortstop and Ezequiel Tovar is going to play the position in the big leagues for a long time, starting on Opening Day.
Miller or Stone? (This year and for long term) -- @BrocNessMonster
We’re talking about Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone of the Dodgers and this sure is a good problem for an organization to have. Both are in the Top 100, Miller at 24, Stone at 56. Both are pretty close to big league ready and are around the same age (Stone is six months older). Miller has a higher ceiling with better pure stuff. Stone has very good stuff, especially his 70-grade changeup, with a really good feel for pitching. Based on our rankings I should put Miller over Stone. But I’ll buck the trend here. I’ll say for this year, Miller gets the edge. But I’m going to pick Stone and that pitchability in the long-term, though I think both have the chance to pitch in the Dodgers rotation together for a long time.