E-Rod's recent high walk rate 'not how he pitches'

September 14th, 2023

DETROIT -- took the mound at Comerica Park on Wednesday night to the sound of A-ha’s 1984 hit, “Take On Me.” It was a popular pick with the fans in attendance, but it was an unexpected choice for entrance music -- even for Rodriguez, who has been known to change up his entrance music every so often.

Once the Tigers left-hander got to work against the Reds, his entrance song wasn’t the only thing that seemed out of tune.

“Five walks is very uncommon for him,” manager A.J. Hinch said of Rodriguez after Wednesday’s 4-3 loss. “I know he had four walks last time. That’s not how he pitches.”

It’s certainly not how he was pitching earlier in the summer, when his tear made him an All-Star candidate before a finger injury and a trade candidate for contenders after coming back.

Rodriguez walked seven batters over 36 2/3 innings in March and April, including a stretch of 22 innings without issuing a pass. He didn’t walk three batters in a game until July 25, his 15th start of the season and his final start before the Trade Deadline.

Wednesday’s five walks marked his most in a game since Aug. 2, 2019, when he was a young Red Sox starter facing the Yankees. But it goes beyond one rough night; he has now walked four or more batters in three of his past four starts. His 15 walks in that span are one shy of his walk total for the first two months of the season combined.

“My command was really off,” Rodriguez said. “It was all of my pitches. The changeup was working, but it was bouncing most of the time. That’s what I saw today: The command was off a little.”

Wednesday’s struggles came after a smooth 10-pitch opening inning. But even then, there were signs of what was coming. His only first-pitch strike in the 1-2-3 frame was his first pitch of the night, which Jonathan India sent to right field for a flyout. 

Rodriguez threw first-pitch strikes to just 11 of his 24 batters, an odd turn for a pitcher whose 64.2 percent first-pitch strike rate for the season ranks above the Major League average. He battled through it, but starting from behind cost him his strength of working in leverage counts and making hitters attack his pitch.

“I tried to fix it in between innings,” Rodriguez said, “but the command wasn’t in place the whole game.”

Some of the raw numbers were decent. He drew 10 swinging strikes, including four of his five strikeouts, mostly off his changeup. He also had 18 called strikes -- 12 of them off fastballs and six off cutters -- but many of them were to get back in counts rather than finish them off.

All five of his walks came on 3-2 pitches. The first four, the batter didn’t even have to foul off a ball to stay alive. The payoff pitches generally weren’t competitive. Harrison Bader, whose 4.5 percent walk rate entering the night ranked in the bottom 5 percent among Major League hitters, walked twice on full counts, including a leadoff pass in the two-run fourth inning that provided the difference in the game.

“He got into some deep counts,” catcher Carson Kelly said, “and when he had to make a pitch, some of them were non-competitive out of the hand.”

Through three September starts, Rodriguez’s swing-and-miss rate is down from his season average on his fastball and cutter but not the changeup, according to Statcast. 

Also notable was that Rodriguez’s four-seam fastball velocity Wednesday was averaging 90.8 miles per hour, down from his season average of 92.2. But it has wavered up and down over his last few starts, including 93.2 mph in his previous outing at Yankee Stadium, and 90.4 mph the start before that in Chicago.

Rodriguez gave up one run-scoring hit Wednesday, a two-out, two-run triple from TJ Friedl that opened the Reds’ scoring in the second inning. The deciding fourth-inning rally came together on Bader’s walk, a Noelvi Marte single on an 0-2 fastball and a Friedl bunt single to load the bases. Luke Maile’s ground ball was too slow for a double play, scoring one run on a fielder’s choice, then the Reds deftly swiped a run when Maile took off for second base and drew a throw from Kelly. Second baseman Andy Ibáñez opted for the rundown at second rather than try to throw out Marte breaking for home, a move he later called a mistake.