The trade market is a shape-shifter, subject to change with a single phone call or, perhaps, a single sitdown at next week's General Managers Meetings. For now, the Blue Jays have zero intention of moving Josh Donaldson. Likewise, the Orioles with Manny Machado, who, like Donaldson, is set to be a free agent next winter. Maybe that will change, and the fantasies of fans clamoring for their clubs to add one of those big bats will be realized.
Until then, all we can do is take a reasoned, realistic look at the developing market. And fear not, friends: There's still plenty of meat on the bone.
Here are the five biggest trade candidates in the here and now, leading off, of course, with the biggest of them all:
1. Giancarlo Stanton and Co., Marlins
The trouble with doing this list of five is that the Marlins could fill every spot. We'll consolidate here.
Stanton, coming off a 59-homer year that made him a National League Most Valuable Player Award finalist, is this market's most fascinating figure, and the Marlins' new ownership group is open to moving him to free up future payroll and fortify the farm system. But the market for Stanton is inherently limited by the 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract (Stanton can opt out after 2020). The Cardinals or Phillies probably make the most sense, but Stanton has a no-trade clause.
So, don't lose sight of the possibility that Marcell Ozuna and/or Christian Yelich might actually be the more likely Marlins outfielder to be moved. Ozuna is under team control another two years and is coming off a monster '17 (.312/.376/.548, 37 homers). Yelich has a terrific hit tool (career OBP of .369) and an affordable contract that runs through at least 2021. If the goal is to not just move money but to gain real prospect value, these two might be the Marlins' best trade chips. The Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants, Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays are among the many clubs that would fit the bill.
There's also second baseman Dee Gordon, a speed demon who importantly improved his OBP in '17 and is signed through at least 2020, and catcher J.T. Realmuto, an underrated asset behind the dish under club control through 2020. Did we mention starter Dan Straily? Say it with me: There are plenty of Fish in the (swap) sea.
2. Dellin Betances and/or Adam Warren, Yankees
More consolidation here. The Yankees don't want to pay the luxury tax that comes with exceeding a $197 million payroll, so one or both of these arbitration-eligible relievers could be moved. While Betances' wildness (6.6 walks per nine) and Warren's shoulder and back woes from '17 might be limiting factors, teams like the Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, Rangers, Twins, Nationals and Rockies would all have interest. With deep bullpens so vital to contention these days, there would be no shortage of suitors.
3. Kyle Schwarber or Ian Happ, Cubs
The Cubs can spend a decent amount of money this winter without hitting the luxury tax threshold for 2018, so they don't have to trade Schwarber, Happ or Javier Baez (and for the record, I doubt they move Baez in any scenario). But internally, there is acknowledgement that addressing their pitching needs with higher-upside arms might require more than money. It might require openness to the idea of dealing from their position-player depth.
One wonders if Schwarber's trade value has been compromised not just by his 2016 injury and 2017 first-half struggles but by the reality that homers and suspect defense aren't exactly in short supply in today's game. Happ might actually have more value, because he's a versatile switch-hitter who would fit on a lot of clubs, either in the AL or NL.
4. Ian Kinsler, Tigers
Kinsler is coming off a down offensive year (OPS+ of 90, vs. a career mark of 109), but he's still a valuable veteran who is usually going to give you good defense and good at-bats. He has one year and $11 million left on his contract, and the Tigers are obviously trying to get younger. The Brewers, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays and maybe even the Red Sox are clubs that could use help at second base. So while the Tigers weren't able to work out a trade for Kinsler during the '17 season (he was claimed on waivers in August, but time expired before a deal was completed), there's a decent chance something comes together this winter as Detroit starts its rebuild.
5. Avisail Garcia, White Sox
Is it time for the Sox to "Avi-sell" high on this guy? He's under their control another two seasons, and they don't seriously expect to contend in that timeframe. So it makes all the sense in the world to see what kind of market develops for Garcia in the wake of his breakout 2017, in which he surprisingly slashed .330/.380/.506. There would be concern for any acquiring club that '17 was a flash in the pan (Garcia previously had a career .695 OPS in 1,551 plate appearances), but the good news is he's still just 26 years old. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cardinals, Mariners, A's or any other teams in need of outfield help that balk at the price of a free agent such as J.D. Martinez or Jay Bruce could be a fit for Garcia.
The White Sox are in a similar situation with Jose Abreu (also under control for two more years), but the depth of the free-agent market at first base this winter will make it tough to get back adequate value in an Abreu swap.
Honorable mentions:
Just for the record, this list is anything but all-inclusive. Maybe the O's ownership approves a Zach Britton deal. Maybe the Padres lower what in-season executives from other teams considered to be an exorbitant in-season price on Brad Hand. The Rays' Jake Odorizzi and the Braves' Julio Teheran are among the starters who could be dealt. Remember all the Andrew McCutchen rumors last winter? They'll be back. But the Pirates currently appear more likely to take their chances early in 2018 and move Cutch midseason if they falter. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the A's move young slugger Ryon Healy, or the Cardinals deal from their outfield depth with Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk. Any takers for Jacoby Ellsbury? Jordan Zimmermann? Brandon Belt? The list goes on and on.
Again, the trade market is a shape-shifter. And it's still taking its initial shape. All it takes is one call …