Fantasy picks, predictions, odds for Oct. 11

October 11th, 2021

A version of this article originally appeared on DraftKings. For more betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

With each NLDS tied at 1-1, things are about to get tense on Monday. But the real chaos is set to take place at Fenway. Here’s how to attack those games via DraftKings Sportsbook.

If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Braves -115

Freddy Peralta was as good as any pitcher in the game before the MLB All-Star break. But then shoulder inflammation landed him on the IL from mid-August to the start of September. By the end of September, he looked like a completely different pitcher.

He’s had time to recover since his last start on Sept. 26, but shoulders can be tricky. So as much as he shut down the Braves when he saw him earlier in the season, I’m still favoring Atlanta’s offense on Monday.The Braves were one of the 10 best teams against righties all season when you look at OPS, ISO and wOBA (also 11th in wRC+), and they finished the season strong against righties.

Also, Milwaukee’s offense isn’t exactly clicking on all cylinders. Not that the lineup was ever the Brewers’ calling card this season. Ian Anderson handled Milwaukee well enough when he saw them earlier in 2021, and he developed some momentum heading into the postseason. Certainly enough to navigate a lineup that has a 28.3% hard-hit rate against righties since September. (Just to note, the Braves have a 34.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers since the start of September.)

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Red Sox -110

After nearly coughing up the game in the eighth and getting a lucky bounce off of Hunter Renfroe’s hip in extras, the Red Sox are in the driver’s seat against the team who took advantage of Boston’s mid-season spiral to take the AL East title. Despite their collapse after an outstanding first half, the Red Sox have proven resilient. But the Rays aren’t pushovers, either. That said, they’re not putting themselves in the best position to force a Game 5.

Monday is a must-win for the Rays, and rookie left-hander Shane McClanahan should be starting. Unless McClanahan is hurt, this is a miscalculation by the Rays’ computers and Kevin Cash. The Red Sox are also in a weird spot from a pitching standpoint, and I don’t love backing Eduardo Rodriguez, but there’s only one Rays starter who can give Boston serious trouble. That guy is not slated to start on Monday. And while bullpen days can be tricky, Boston’s lineup has proven it can get past Tampa’s relievers.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

First Five Innings Dodgers over 2.5 runs +115

More than a few of the Dodgers have solid numbers against the ex-L.A. left-hander. Even Albert Pujols, who will man first base in Monday’s Game 3, has taken Alex Wood deep before.

The Giants lefty hasn’t given up a home run over his last three starts — which only spanned 13 innings — but the Dodgers took him deep five times in three meetings, getting the best of him at least once in each game. Pitchers may be able to elevate their game come the postseason, but Wood has to contain a Dodgers lineup that led all of baseball with 20.63 at-bats per home run against left-handed pitching, as well as 79 total home runs against lefties in 2021. A few teams have hit lefties better than the Dodgers since the start of September, but their ISO, wOBA, OPS and wRC+ against lefties during that span are still among the best.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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