Fantasy owners will have some difficult decisions to make when it comes to the hot corner.
There is one clear-cut top choice as far as overall production goes, but there is another elite option who comes with the added bonus of shortstop eligibility. Drafters who miss out or elect to pass on those two players can take solace in knowing that third base is an immensely deep position with plenty of high-upside options.
Tier 1: Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman
The first infielder off the board in most fantasy leagues should likely be Arenado. He is arguably the most consistent and reliable fantasy option when it comes to homers, RBIs and runs. The 28-year-old has racked up at least 35 homers, 110 RBIs and 95 runs in each of the last five seasons, while missing no more than seven games in any of those campaigns.
Arenado is the only player in the Majors with at least 100 RBIs in each of the last five seasons, while he and Nelson Cruz are the only players to top the 35-homer mark in each of those campaigns. Overall, Arenado is averaging 40 homers, 124 RBIs and 104 runs scored over the last five years, while hitting .300/.362/.575 during that span.
As for Bregman, his numbers last year were nearly identical to Arenado’s -- and the former has the benefit of shortstop eligibility in most leagues. Bregman matched Arenado with 41 homers, while also chipping in 112 RBIs, 122 runs scored, five stolen bases and a .296/.423/.592 slash line. The stolen bases were a bit of a disappointment after Bregman swiped 17 bases in his first full season in 2017. That number dipped to 10 in '18. Bregman also worked an MLB-leading 119 walks.
Tier 2: Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, José Ramírez
Any one of these players could find themselves in the top tier at this time next year. Rendon has been a consistent force for the last three seasons, but the new Angels third baseman will be switching leagues after spending his first seven years with the Nationals. Devers, meanwhile, is coming off a breakout year and could find himself among the top fantasy third basemen, especially if he's able to take another step forward in 2020. As for Ramírez, he's a bit of a question mark after a down year in 2019 followed back-to-back MVP-caliber campaigns.
Starting with Rendon, the 29-year-old has a solid fantasy floor, though his ceiling may not be quite as high as that of Arenado or Bregman. Rendon set career highs last year in homers (34), RBIs (126), runs (117) and OPS (1.010). He had never previously topped 25 homers and he had just one 100-RBI season to his name. At the same time, Rendon has racked up at least 20 homers and 35 doubles in each of the last four seasons.
Devers could end up paying big dividends for fantasy owners in 2020. Anyone who rostered him in 2019 was treated to one of the game's biggest breakout seasons, as the Red Sox third baseman went off for 32 homers, 115 RBIs and an MLB-best 54 doubles. He also contributed 129 runs and eight stolen bases, and he hit .311/.361/.555. Devers joined Alex Rodriguez as the only players in MLB history with at least 50 doubles and 30 homers in his age-22 season or younger. If Devers is able to replicate that success -- or somehow take yet another leap forward -- in 2020, he could finish the year as a top-15 fantasy option.
Ramírez is the ultimate roll-the-dice option. Anyone who drafted him with an early-round pick last year likely still has a sour taste in their mouth after the Indians third baseman finished with 23 homers and 83 RBIs, while hitting .255/.327/.479 across 129 games. After hitting 39 homers with 105 RBIs and 34 stolen bases in 2018, Ramírez got off to a disastrous start in '19. He hit .198 with four home runs and 21 RBIs through his first 66 games before starting to find his swing in mid-June. Just when Ramirez had finally hit his stride -- he hit .320 with 15 homers and 45 RBIs in a 46-game stretch in July and August -- he sustained a fractured right hamate bone that sidelined him for 26 games during the stretch run of the fantasy season. If Ramírez can be the '17 or '18 version of himself, or the July/August version from last summer, he could wind up as one of the year's top value picks.
Tier 3: Manny Machado, Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suárez
This is rare territory for Machado and Bryant, both of whom have resided in the top tier in recent years. Machado clubbed 32 home runs in his debut season with the Padres -- his fifth straight 30-homer season -- but he also hit a career-low .256 and finished with a .462 slugging percentage, his lowest since 2014. Outside of homers, Machado posted 81 runs and 85 RBIs, while swiping only five bases. After registering a career-high 20 stolen bases in 2015, Machado has just 28 stolen bases combined in the four seasons since. Without the peripheral stats, Machado's fantasy value has taken a hit.
Bryant figures to be a solid source of home runs and doubles, and is always a candidate to top the 100-run mark, but he's yet to match the overall production from his 2016 MVP season. After racking up 39 homers, 102 RBIs and 121 runs in that '16 campaign, Bryant has averaged 24 homers and 67 RBIs over the last three seasons. Part of that stems from being limited to 102 games in '18, but even last year, Bryant had just 77 RBIs to go with his 31 home runs.
As for Suárez, his value takes a slight hit due to questions surrounding his health. The slugger underwent surgery on Jan. 28 to remove loose cartilage in his right shoulder following a swimming pool accident at his South Florida home, but Reds manager David Bell said there is still a chance that Suárez could be ready for Opening Day. Even if he does not miss any time, it remains to be seen how a surgically repaired shoulder could affect a player whose fantasy value depends so much on his power. Suárez is coming off a 49-homer, 103-RBI season with the Reds after posting 34 home runs and 104 RBIs in 2018. That said, he also led the Majors with 189 strikeouts last year, hasn't topped 90 runs in any of his six seasons and isn't a threat on the basepaths.
Tier 4: Josh Donaldson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yoán Moncada
All three of these players come with significant risks -- and significant upside. Donaldson, who signed a four-year, $92 million deal with the Twins this offseason, is coming off a resurgent year in 2019 that saw him club 37 homers in 155 games with the Braves. That came on the heels of an injury-riddled '18 campaign in which Donaldson managed just eight homers over 52 games between the Blue Jays and Indians. Last year, however, Donaldson looked a lot like the slugger who averaged 37 homers and 100 RBIs from '15-17. He will now find himself hitting in the middle of a Minnesota lineup that set a Major League record with 307 home runs last year. If Donaldson can put together a repeat performance this season at the age of 34, he could be a value pick.
Guerrero, meanwhile, is flying off the board much earlier than Donaldson in most drafts. Coming off an impressive rookie season, Guerrero is certainly a much flashier pick than the others in this tier -- and even some of those in the above tiers. Although that may lead to him being drafted earlier than perhaps he should be in many leagues, the upside is still there. Guerrero, who turns 21 years old in March, finished with 15 homers and 69 RBIs in 123 games in his debut season. While a significant leap in his sophomore season is certainly plausible, Steamer projections have him hitting 25 home runs to go with 86 runs and 87 RBIs. Respectable, but he'd need to exceed those numbers to warrant his current average draft position.
As for Moncada, the White Sox infielder finally had the breakout season in 2019 that many had been anticipating for years. He hit .315 with a .915 OPS, while crushing 25 homers and swiping 10 bases. Though he still struck out 154 times, even that was a vast improvement from his MLB-leading 217 whiffs in '18. Moncada also has swiped double-digit bases in each of the last two seasons, so he should help fantasy owners in that respect, though they shouldn't necessarily be expecting a 20-20 season. Although there is no guarantee that Moncada will build off his impressive '19 campaign, the 24-year-old should benefit from being part of a much-improved White Sox lineup.
If you pass on the top-tier players, you'll likely be looking at one of these guys to man the hot corner for your fantasy team. Each player comes with something to like, but also carries plenty of risk. Chapman is coming off a breakout year in which he hit 36 homers with 91 RBIs and 102 runs scored -- enough to earn him a share of AL MVP votes. He's going to strike out, he isn't a speed threat and he doesn't hit for average, but he should once again be a good source of homers, RBIs and runs.
Escobar is a bit of a wild card. Sure, he went off for 35 homers and 118 RBIs last year, but that came after never having posted more than 23 home runs or 84 RBIs. With an everyday role in Arizona, the veteran infielder should once again be a solid source of extra-base hits, RBIs and runs, but don't expect him to hit another 35 dingers or flirt with 120 RBIs.
Moustakas and Sanó are both strong candidates to reach the 30-homer mark. Moustakas clubbed 35 last year, and is averaging 34 homers over the last three years, but he's never topped the 100-RBI mark nor has he ever scored more than 80 runs. Sanó, meanwhile, hit a career-high 34 home runs in just 105 games in 2019, but therein lies part of the issues -- he's had an injured list stint in each of his four full seasons. He's also going to strike out a ton, as his strikeout percentage of 36.3% since his '15 debut is the highest among any player with at least 2,000 plate appearances during that stretch.
That leaves Turner, who has been a consistent, albeit at times underwhelming, season-long fantasy option since stepping into an everyday role in 2015. Turner is hitting a respectable .297/.378/.508 over the last five seasons, while averaging 21 homers and 68 RBIs during that stretch. He matched his career high with 27 homers last year, but he's never posted more than 90 RBIs or 80 runs scored in a single season -- and he's also played more than 130 games just twice in the last five years.